RBC HERITAGE: The week after a major championship is always a bit of a comedown, but the RBC Heritage is a quality event in its own right, one which always features a strong field thanks in no small part to the venue, the magnificent Harbour Town Golf Links.
Built by Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus in 1969, Harbour Town is short by Tour standards but is by no means easy, as the tight fairways, overhanging trees, ample water hazards and small Bermuda greens combine to give the players all they can handle. Branden Grace’s 9-under par 275 was good enough to get the job done last year, and that marked the second time in the past four stagings that the winner has failed to reach 10-under. Birdies can be made, but Harbour Town rewards patience and harshly punishes those who get careless and overly aggressive, which is why experienced veterans have seen a lot of success in this tournament over the years.
One of those vets, 2014 champion Matt Kuchar, currently heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 17.5, and he’s closely followed by fellow longtime pros Brandt Snedeker (23.0) and Kevin Kisner (24.0). Snedeker won this event in 2011, while Kisner finished runner-up in 2015. And that’s something to keep in mind here: course history is always a critical component in handicapping a golf tournament, but at Harbour Town it overrides all else, including current form. Certain guys always play well here, while others simply can’t figure the place out no matter how well they’ve been playing coming in.
We’ve hit a bit of a dry patch after nailing a couple of winners earlier in the year, with Rickie Fowler’s Sunday fade at Augusta being the latest disappointment. It’s a long season, however, and this tournament has treated us well in the past, so I’m optimistic about the week ahead. Here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Martin Kaymer (29.0)- Kaymer has quietly found his stride over the past few weeks, putting together a string a four consecutive top-25 finishes that began with a T4 at the Honda Classic and culminated in his 16th-place showing at the Masters, an impressive performance considering his previous struggles at Augusta National. He seems primed for a big week, and his precision ball-striking should make him a great fit at Harbour Town, where accuracy is rewarded far more than distance or creativity. He’s only played this event twice but has made the cut both times, finishing 23rd in 2014 (his last appearance), so he certainly knows his way around the course and presumably has a game plan he feels comfortable with. The field this week is strong but not top-heavy, so Kaymer has as good a chance as anybody and is approaching bargain status at a price like 29.0.
Pat Perez (42.0)- Perez has been on fire this season, making 12 of his 13 cuts and notching four top-10s to go along with his victory at the OHL Classic. He finished 18th at the Masters last week, a solid showing under the bright lights, and he obviously has an affinity for Harbour Town considering this will be his 11th appearance in this event. It hasn’t always gone smoothly for Perez here, but he’s experienced plenty of success, registering four top-25s and a top-10, and he’s never come in on such a tailwind of success. Perez is deadly with the short and mid-irons and is known as a streaky player who makes birdies in bunches, so if he gets it going this week, look out. At better than 40/1 he’s probably my favorite bet on the board.
Anirban Lahiri (110.0)- Lahiri is a quality player with loads of international experience and he’s been on a good run lately, making the cut in 6 of his past 7 worldwide starts, a stretch that includes five top-25s and a top-5 in last month’s Hero Indian Open. Much like Perez, he’s known as a guy who can make birdies in bunches when he has it going, ranking third on the PGA Tour in birdies per rounds this season (4.61) and 14th in one-putt percentage. He’s only played this tournament once, making the cut but finishing a mediocre 44th, but it should be noted that he had been playing poorly coming into the week (back in 2015) and still managed to fire an impressive 3rd-round 66. I like the fit here, and Lahiri has won 16 times worldwide and twice on the European Tour, so we know he can close the deal if he smells blood on Sunday. He’s definitely worth a shot at the current price.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Kevin Kisner (1.91) vs. Russell Henley (1.91)
Henley is on a roll after the victory in Houston and a nice week at the Masters, and Harbour Town– a par-71 Bermuda-covered layout that rewards accuracy and good iron play– seems like his kind of place. He’s missed the cut twice in four career appearances here, however, and has never really contended. Kisner, meanwhile, finished runner-up here in 2015 and is just as suited for this kind of golf as Henley, as the South Carolina native is always dangerous on short courses with Bermuda greens. And it’s not like Kisner has been playing poorly lately– he finished runner-up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, his last start prior to his T44 at the Masters. Recommendation: Kisner at 1.91
Francesco Molinari (1.91) vs. Russell Knox (1.91)
Knox is a popular sleeper pick this week because he’s a fairways-and-greens type who has a great history in this tournament, finishing 2nd last year and never worse than 18th in three career appearances. He’s been absolutely dogging it, however, missing 4 cuts in his last 5 starts, and the only “made” cut in that stretch came at the no-cut WGC-Mexico Championship, where he shot 81 in the final round and only beat six players in the field. I’ll take my chances with the short-and-straight Molinari, who has finished 33rd or better in each of his past four events and made the cut here last year. Recommendation: Molinari at 1.91
