SAFEWAY OPEN: The 2016/17 PGA Tour season kicks off this week in wine country, as 156 players will descend upon Silverado Resort in Napa, California for the Safeway Open. The field is exceptionally strong for a mid-October event, but all the talk over the past 48 hours has revolved around someone who’s not here: 14-time major champion and noted Perkins enthusiast Tiger Woods.
This, after all, was supposed to be the beginning of Tiger’s comeback. He confirmed his intentions to play as recently as last week, and his last-minute withdrawal has been a nightmare for tournament organizers and a letdown for curious golf fans around the world. But he says he’s not ready, and I, for one, take him at his word. Golf is a unique game, and it’s become clear that Tiger’s issues stretch beyond the physical realm. Everyone hopes to see him back on the course sometime soon, but the Safeway Open folks are surely frustrated at the way he handled this situation, and rightfully so.
The show must go on, however, and names like Phil Mickelson, Paul Casey, Matt Kuchar, and Bill Haas are on hand to entertain the galleries at Silverado’s North Course. A par 72 that measures just 7,166 yards, Silverado rewards accuracy off the tee and precision with the short irons, and if the wind picks up the small greens will be extremely difficult to hit, so some short game wizardry might be necessary (rumor has it that it was the short game, and not full shots, that prompted Tiger’s withdrawal).
Emiliano Grillo is the defending champion and can currently be backed at 20.0, but the history of this event, and the PGA Tour’s Fall Series in general, suggests that some new blood might break through. Players like Justin Thomas, Smylie Kaufman, Kevin Kisner, Russell Knox, and Grillo himself have earned their maiden victories in Fall Series events in recent years, and there is a fresh crop of young talent just itching to make a splash this week. Keep an eye on those types…
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Jon Rahm (27.0)- As mentioned above, the brief history of the PGA Tour’s Fall Series is littered with up-and-coming players who were finally able to break into the winner’s circle in one of these events, when the fields generally aren’t quite as strong as you’d find in the middle of the season. Well, no player teeing it up this week is more primed for such a breakout than Rahm, the 21-year old Spaniard who makes birdies in bunches and seems a lock for future stardom. A terrific iron player who’s long off the tee and streaky with the putter, Rahm has logged six top-25 finishes in just nine career PGA Tour starts, all coming since June of this year. He nearly won twice, finishing runner-up at the RBC Canadian Open and third at the Quicken Loans National, and he’s broken 70 in 10 of his last 13 competitive rounds. He’s played extensive amateur golf in California over the past few years, having attended college at Arizona State, so the setup at Silverado– tight fairways, small greens, ample undulation– should feel very familiar to him. Like most guys in the field, Rahm has taken the last few weeks off, so his current form is a bit of a mystery. That being said, a price like 27.0 is adequate value for someone of his caliber, and there’s no reason to think he’s had any issues with his game since his busy summer. Look for big things from Rahm this week and beyond.
Martin Laird (58.0)- Laird quietly began to string together some good finishes towards the end of last season, including a runner-up showing at the Canadian Open and a top-20 at The Barclays playoff event. A good iron player who is at an advantage when greens become difficult to hit– be it due to weather, size, or firmness– Laird’s game seems ideally suited for Silverado, and indeed his debut at this tournament last year was an unqualified success, as he finished third after opening with back-to-back 67s. He may be a bit of a dark horse this week considering he hasn’t won in awhile, but if you’re looking for a quality player with a good course history who was last seen playing well, and is priced reasonably, then Laird’s your man.
Bud Cauley (68.0)- Though he narrowly missed out on the FedEx Cup Playoffs, Cauley finished last season with a flourish, finding the top-10 in each of his last two starts and breaking par in 10 of his last 11 competitive rounds. Finally healthy after battling injuries for the past several years, Cauley may be ready to pick up where he left off in 2012, when he was considered one of the Tour’s rising stars. And if he’s going to break through, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if it happened at Silverado, considering Cauley has one of the best short games in the world and is great with his short irons and wedges. Don’t be surprised if he hangs around the first page of the leaderboard this week.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Matt Kuchar (1.76) vs. Phil Mickelson (1.91)
Mickelson was last seen working his magic at Hazeltine, where he and Sergio Garcia halved a classic Sunday singles match that featured a boatload of birdies and some vintage Ryder Cup drama. How he’s able to emotionally shift gears from that to the relative anonymity of the Safeway Open is a question that must be asked, and given what we’ve seen out of Phil over the past couple of years, when he’s dealt with bouts of inconsistency and oftentimes appears to just be going through the motions, I don’t have a whole lot of faith in him this week. Kuchar was also at Hazeltine but is a much more consistent and reliable player, and he finished 21st in this tournament two years ago, while Mickelson has never played the course in competition. Recommendation: Kuchar at 1.76
Bill Haas (1.8) vs. Roberto Castro (2.0)
While Haas is a name player who has the class to contend anytime he tees it up, he’s never played this event before and hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire over the past few months, as he’s found the top-20 just twice in his past 13 starts. Castro, meanwhile, has four top-25s in his last five starts, including a T3 at the BMW Championship. An he made the cut in this tournament last year, so he knows his way around Silverado. Recommendation: Castro at 2.0
