TOURNAMENT OF CHAMPIONS: It’s a new year and a new era on the PGA Tour, and the changes start this week, as the Tournament of Champions is no longer an event solely consisting of players who won on Tour in the previous calendar year, but now also includes the top-30 of last season’s FedEx Cup standings. That leaves us with 39 guys teeing it up at lovely Kapalua on Thursday, including 17 of the world’s top 20. It should be a fun week.
If you ask me, playing in this tournament is its own reward, as I’m not sure there are too many people on the planet who wouldn’t want to start their year on the Hawaiian island of Maui. The Plantation Course at Kapalua has hosted this event for the past 24 years and what it lacks in difficulty it more than makes up for in beauty, with stunning island vistas and tropical wildlife framing the Coore/Crenshaw design. The course was built with resort guests in mind and therefore doesn’t present much of a challenge for the pros, who won’t see fairways this wide combined with greens this big for the rest of the season. It’s the only par-73 on the schedule, and though it measures nearly 7,600 yards from all the way back, elevation changes make some holes play much different than their listed yardages. The wind coming off the ocean is really the course’s only defense, but it hasn’t blown often enough in recent years to stave off the birdies, as it’s taken 23-under or better to win this event in 6 of the past 7 years.
Last year we saw some real fireworks here, with Cam Smith setting a new 72-hole PGA Tour scoring record at 34-under. He needed all of them, too, as Jon Rahm was right on his heels at 33-under and Matt Jones was just a shot back of Rahm. Smith now plays on the LIV tour, of course, so he won’t be defending this week, but Rahm is in the field and currently heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 7.6, which seems awfully short until you consider Rahm’s record here, his form to close out 2022, and the fact that he only has to beat 38 guys this week. I’ll spoil it right now and let you know that I’m having a bet on Rahm, but taking a shot on a couple others with juicier odds as well:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Jon Rahm (7.6)- The case for Rahm is a very easy and straightforward one: he’s probably the best player in the field, he’s been at or near peak form for several months and might be putting better than he has at any point in his career, and he has a tremendous record at Kapalua. In five career appearances at this event, Rahm has never finished outside the top-10 and has a pair of runners-up, including last year, when his 33-under total was good enough for a new PGA Tour scoring record but wasn’t quite good enough to beat Cam Smith that week. Smith is out of the picture now and Rory McIlroy isn’t here either, and with only 38 other players to contend with, I like Rahm’s chances. This is one of those times when swallowing the short odds feels like the right move.
Sungjae Im (21.0)- Most of the players in this week’s field played sparingly in the Fall, but Im is an exception, teeing it up four times since the season-ending Tour Championship and logging some good results, including a T7 in the Shriners Children’s Open and a T8 in last month’s Hero World Challenge. An aggressive player who makes birdies in bunches, Im generally fares well on easier layouts where guys are forced to go low, and so it should come as no surprise that he’s played well in both of his appearances at Kapalua, finishing 5th in 2021 and T8 last year. He’s likely to pile up the birdies again this week and is worth a bet at around 20/1.
Russell Henley (39.0)- It’s been a while since Henley made an appearance at Kapalua, and I’m sure the pineapple will taste extra sweet this week after a few years away. He’s always enjoyed Hawaii and other tropical venues, finishing runner-up in last year’s Sony Open and winning in Mayakoba back in November, just two starts ago. With the taste of victory now fresh Henley returns to a spot where he’s had success before, finishing 3rd in this tournament back in 2015. He’ll find the same wide fairways and large greens that he remembers, as well as the tropical breezes and elevation changes that make Kapalua a perfect fit for a great iron player like him. At a price like 39.0 I don’t think Henley qualifies as a “longshot”, but he’s just about the longest-priced guy this week who I think has a legit chance to win.
