SHELL HOUSTON OPEN: For many in the field, this week’s Shell Houston Open is nothing more than preparation for The Masters, while for others it will serve as the last chance to qualify for the year’s first major. Either way, there’s a common theme: Augusta National will weigh heavily on the minds of the competitors this week as they attempt to conquer the Golf Club of Houston (previously known as Redstone), which has hosted the SHO since 2003.
Of course, the players aren’t alone: golf fans and bettors of every stripe have already begun to shift their focus to next week’s action, and much of what goes on this week will be viewed through the prism of “how is that going to affect his odds/confidence/performance at Augusta?” Before we get there, though, let’s remember that we have a strong field and a good tournament in front of us, and that money won now spends just as well as money won later. You may put more value in The Masters than the Shell Houston Open, but your bank account doesn’t know the difference. With that in mind, let’s dig a little deeper into what we’re going to see over the next few days…
Measuring 7,441 yards from all the way back, the Golf Club of Houston is a lengthy, driver-friendly course with wide fairways and firm, fast Bermuda greens. Water comes into play frequently and several holes play quite long, with three of the Par 4s stretching out over 480 yards. Despite that, scores tend to be fairly low at this tournament thanks to the generous landing areas off the tee and the immaculately-conditioned greens, with each of the past five winners reaching the 15-under mark. J.B. Holmes prevailed in a playoff last year, becoming the latest in a long line of long-ball hitters to have success at the GC of Houston. Aside from Holmes we’ve also seen guys like Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson, Paul Casey, and Anthony Kim win here in the last decade, and nine of the past 12 champions have finished the year ranked in the top-35 in Driving Distance. Again, there are other factors to consider– G.I.R. percentage has also been a strong indicator of success in this tournament– but there’s no question that the “bombers” have an advantage this week.
Jordan Spieth heads BETDAQ’s market at 8.6, and while the young Texan is sure to bust out of his mini-slump eventually, it’s difficult to justify such a short price given his recent record. Other market leaders– guys like Rickie Fowler (14.0) and Dustin Johnson (15.5), for instance– have spotty records in this event, so there are no obvious answers among the favorites this week. That just means we must widen our gaze a bit… but only a bit. Here are my selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Brooks Koepka (33.0)- Koepka has never played this event before and I categorically dislike backing “first-timers” on the PGA Tour, but I’m making an exception this week. It’s just that he feels so right for this course, doesn’t he?? Not only does he hit the ball nine miles, he also ranks among the top 25% on the PGA Tour in both G.I.R. percentage and Strokes Gained Putting, two key metrics this week (and any week, really). As a matter of fact, Koepka’s only clear weakness this year has been driving accuracy, where he ranks 167th, and the wide open spaces of the GC of Houston may be just what he needs to cure that particular ailment. He’s been playing very well of late, advancing to the quarterfinals of last week’s WGC Match Play and finishing 26th or better in six of his last seven starts, and his only career win came at the Phoenix Open, an event that has produced several champions in recent years who have also gone on to win the SHO (Holmes, Mickelson, Mahan, to name a few). At better than 30/1, Koepka is a strong play this week.
Sergio Garcia (35.0)- Sergio checks all the boxes here. He’s a world-class ball-striker with enough length to compete anywhere, he has a good history in this event, making the cut in all three of his appearances and finishing third in 2014, and his form has been excellent in recent weeks, as he followed up his runner-up finish at the Honda Classic with an 11th-place showing at the WGC-Cadillac and then three solid days of golf at the WGC Match Play, where he won two of his 3 matches. But with Sergio these days it always seems to come down to attitude and desire, doesn’t it? He has a tendency to “get in his own way” sometimes, an unfortunate personality trait that I think even he would concede has cost him some wins through the years. But this isn’t The Masters we’re talking about– it’s the Houston Open. I’m not sure I’ll be backing Sergio as he approaches Amen Corner next Sunday, but he’s a good bet this week at a price like 35.0.
Scott Piercy (86.0)- While he has yet to crack the top-10 this season, I have a strong hunch that Scott Piercy will turn in a very strong performance this week and I think he’s an absolute bargain at better than 80/1. For one thing, he’s obviously very comfortable at the GC of Houston, making the cut in all five of his appearances here and sneaking into the top-10 last year, when he opened with a course record-tying 63. Looking at his stats and his record, Piercy’s success in this tournament becomes easy to understand– he consistently ranks in the top-third on Tour in both driving distance and G.I.R percentage, and much of his best golf has come in the Southwest on courses that are similar stylistically to what he’ll see this week (lots of space, driver in hand more often than not, large multi-tiered greens, etc.). Coming off a strong showing in his last stroke play event (17th at the WGC-Cadillac), Piercy is my favorite long-odds bet on the board this week.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Henrik Stenson (1.86) vs. Rickie Fowler (1.86)
Despite being a great statistical match for the golf course Fowler has struggled in this tournament, finishing outside the top-60 in three of his four career starts. Stenson, on the other hand, has two top-3 finishes here in four career appearances and has never missed a cut. And though he skipped the Match Play last week, there should be no concerns about the current state of Stenson’s game after he finished third at Bay Hill and 11th at the Valspar. Recommendation: Stenson at 1.86
Tony Finau (1.83) vs. Ryan Palmer (1.89)
Finau was a winner in Puerto Rico last week and his prodigious length should serve him well at the GC of Houston, but I have my doubts about the youngster’s ability to bounce back after such an emotionally draining experience and I wouldn’t be surprised if he underperforms this week. Palmer, meanwhile, has made the cut in each of his last eight events and has always liked it at the SHO, logging four top-25s here and cracking the top-10 in 2014. Recommendation: Palmer at 1.89
