SHRINERS OPEN: The PGA Tour returns to Las Vegas this week for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, an event that is light on star power but has produced some entertaining finishes over the years. In 2015, for instance, Smylie Kaufman came from 7 strokes behind with a brilliant 10-under par 61 on Sunday to pick up his first career win, becoming just the latest champion to wow the Vegas crowds with a final-round birdie barrage.
The fans are used to this, you see: the winner of this tournament has reached 20-under par in five of the past six stagings, so the birdies should be flowing this week as easily as the drinks in the casino. TPC Summerlin is the defenseless course in question, with its generous fairways, receptive greens, and reachable par-5s. Summerlin plays shorter than its 7,233 yards due to the altitude, and attempts to make the course more difficult over the past few years, which have included adding bunkers, tightening some fairways and growing up the rough a bit, have not made much of a difference. So we should look for guys who are playing well and aren’t afraid to go low– recent Web.com Tour grads, as Kaufman was last year, may fit the bill better than the slow and steady 15-year vet.
Our season is off to a cracking start after Hideki Matsuyama cashed at 24.0 in last week’s WGC-HSBC Champions, and if the past is any indication these things tend to come in waves. That said, here are this week’s selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Scott Piercy (34.0)- Piercy has developed into a world class player over the past few years and is off to a hot start in this young season, finishing third in the Safeway Open a couple of weeks ago and following that up with a top-10 at the CIMB Classic. The Vegas native always seems to play his best golf out West and his record in this event includes three top-10s and five top-25s in ten career starts, so he certainly knows his way around TPC Summerlin. Piercy stands out as a clear favorite in a field that’s mostly devoid of big names, and I certainly think he’s worth a bet at better than 30/1.
Grayson Murray (62.0)- You may not know his name yet, but it’s only a matter of time. Murray is a rookie who finished second on the Web.com Tour money list last season, and his game has been in full bloom over the past few weeks– after finishing September with a 3rd-place showing at the Albertson’s Boise Open and a win at the Nationwide Childrens Hospital Championship, he notched his first career PGA Tour top-10 at last week’s Sanderson Farms Championship. As a someone who led the Web.com Tour in scoring average you know Murray is used to going low, and he fits the profile established by the last two winners of this event– fearless young guys who are coming off a string of high finishes and won’t be intimidated by any names in the field. I like his chances this week.
Spencer Levin (210.0)- Levin is off to a slow start this season, which is why his price is so astronomically long here, but he may be worth a small bet as the quintessential dark horse course specialist. This will be his seventh start in this tournament and he’s fared quite well here, going 6-for-6 on cuts and recording three top-10s. If Levin could play TPC Summerlin every week he’d be a Ryder Cupper… and his current form isn’t anything to get too freaked out about, as he’s broken par in five of the eight rounds he’s played this season while never shooting higher than 74. He’s not off in Steven Bowditch land, I’ll put it that way. And as 200/1 longshots go, you could do a lot worse.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Kevin Na (1.86) vs. Brendan Steele (1.86)
Steele’s win at the Safeway Open a couple of weeks ago will surely make people take a hard look at him here, and indeed he’s likely to play well this week. Na, however, combines solid recent play with a tremendous record at TPC Summerlin, as he won this event back in 2011 and finished runner-up last year. He’s a good heads-up bet against just about anybody in the field this week. Recommendation: Na at 1.86
Jon Rahm (1.86) vs. Francesco Molinari (1.86)
As regular readers of this column know, I’m all-in on Jon Rahm– I believe he’ll win more than once this year and will be a factor in major championships. That being said, he hasn’t been playing quite as well as Molinari of late– the straight-hitting Italian won his country’s national open in September and was very sharp at last week’s WGC-HSBC Champions, where he broke par in all four rounds and finished sixth. And Molinari’s main weakness– lack of distance off the tee– won’t be a factor at TPC Summerlin. Recommendation: Molinari at 1.86
