SONY OPEN: The year’s first full-field event gets underway this week at a familiar venue, Honolulu’s Waialae Country Club, which has played host to the Sony Open since 1965 and has held up remarkably well through the years despite minimal changes to the layout.
While the Tour’s blue bloods rang in the new year by chopping up millions at Kapalua last week, this tournament is where the rubber meets the road for the grinders, young guys, new faces, and those trying to make a name for themselves and book their own trip to Kapalua next year. That doesn’t mean all the big names have stayed away this week– Jordan Spieth is here, as is Sungjae Im, rising star Tom Kim, and defending champion Hideki Matsuyama– but the majority of the field is comprised of players who are trying to reach that level.
The course is a par-70 that is quite short by Tour standards, tipping out at just 7,044 yards, but the tight doglegs, well-placed bunkers, sticky Bermuda rough, and tricky green complexes are more than enough to get the players’ attention. When the weather is calm Waialae will yield some low scores, but if the wind picks up, look out– in 2020, for instance, only three players reached double-digits under par for the week and 11-under was the winning score. The field appears to have lucked out this week, however, as mild conditions are forecasted for the next four days.
Tom Kim heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 12.0, which is understandable considering his form towards the end of 2022 but at the same time feels awfully short for a young guy with two career victories who hasn’t played much competitive golf over the past couple of months. So, after riding the favorite to victory last week (thanks, Jon Rahm! And a special thanks to Collin Morikawa…), we’re going to be looking a bit further down the board for this week’s selections. Here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Tom Hoge (27.0)- There simply aren’t many guys in the field this week who are on a better run than Tom Hoge. Beginning with September’s Fortinet Championship, Hoge’s finishes read 12-4-9-13-MC-1-3. The “1” was December’s QBE Shootout, when he teamed up with Sahith Theegala to take home the trophy and a cool $475k apiece, and the “3” came at Kapalua last week, where Hoge closed with a 64 to post a 4-day total of 269 (23-under). So he’s red-hot right now, and the only thing that might cool him off is the plane ride he took back to the mainland on Monday to see his alma mater, the TCU Horned Frogs, get absolutely stomped by Georgia in college football’s National Championship game. He’s now back in Hawaii, however, and his mood is sure to be brightened by the familiar sights of Waialae, where he’s enjoyed some success, finishing 12th in this event in 2020 and 3rd in 2018. We’re always looking for that perfect “current form meets course history” combo, and Hoge has it going for him this week. I’m happy to take a chance on him at a price like 27.0.
Matt Kuchar (45.0)- Though he’s 44 years old, Kuchar still plays a full schedule and works hard at his game, and he seems to be a prime candidate for a late-career resurgence a la Stewart Cink or, at the more extreme end, Vijay Singh. Since he’s not particularly long off the tee, he’s at his most dangerous on courses where length off the tee is largely irrelevant and placement and accuracy reign supreme. That description fits Waialae pretty well, and Kuchar has enjoyed tremendous success at this event over the years, winning by 4 shots in 2019 and logging five other top-10s in the past decade. He should have a good feel for his game right now after a very active Fall that included four top-30 finishes in five starts, including a T3 at the QBE Shootout last time out. Kuchar is a bargain at better than 40/1.
Brendan Steele (84.0)- Though Steele had some nice results last year, like a runner-up at the ZOZO Championship and a T9 at the PGA, he spent much of 2022 lost in the wilderness, missing five consecutive cuts at one point. His game has started to show signs of life in recent months, however, as he’s made the cut in his last three Fall Series starts and finished T18 at the CJ Cup, breaking par all four rounds at a difficult course. He now hopes to get 2023 off to a good start at one of his favorite stops on the schedule, Waialae, where he’s logged two top-5 finishes in the past three years, highlighted by a runner-up showing in 2020. Steele has broken 70 in 8 of his last 10 competitive rounds in this tournament, with a 61 and a 64 thrown in there. He’s a genuine threat this week and an excellent value as an 83/1 longshot.
