SONY OPEN: The PGA Tour’s “season” has become so convoluted now that it’s difficult to determine when it really starts– is it the Fall events? The first tournament after KFT Finals? Kapalua last week? Professional golf has become a year-round sport, I understand, but it’s still nice to have a starting point, a place where fans and players alike can sort of reset and everybody starts from zero.
For my money, this week’s Sony Open is the true beginning of the PGA Tour season– it’s the first full-field event of the year, and unlike Kapalua last week it’s not just millionaires chopping up money as they shoot 25-under on a resort course. We have Tour rookies here, long-time grinders, up-and-coming stars, and of course plenty of accomplished vets like Matt Fitzpatrick, Brian Harman, Tyrrell Hatton, Russell Henley, and others. It’s a good field taking on a familiar course that has produced many memorable finishes over the years… a great way to kick off a new season.
The venue, Honolulu’s Waialae Country Club, has played host to this tournament since 1965 and has held up remarkably well despite few structural changes to the layout. It’s a par-70 that is quite short by Tour standards, tipping out at just 7,044 yards, but the tight doglegs, well-placed bunkers, sticky Bermuda rough, and tricky green complexes are more than enough to get the players’ attention. When the weather is calm Waialae will yield some low scores, but if the wind picks up, look out– in 2020, for instance, only three players reached double-digits under par for the week and 11-under was the winning score. The field appears to have lucked out this week, however, as mild conditions are forecasted for Friday-Sunday after some moderate winds on Thursday.
Young Ludvig Aberg heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 21.0, and with the way he’s been playing over the past year I don’t think anyone would be surprised if he were the one left holding the trophy on Sunday. The top of the market is crowded, however, with 7 players currently trading at 30.0 or shorter, and with many of the players coming off multi-week breaks from competitive golf it’s anybody’s guess how it all shakes out. That said, there are a few names sticking out who I think may be worth a bet, three of which are listed below:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Chris Kirk (30.0)- Winning back-to-back weeks is a difficult thing to do, but with the off-course adversity Kirk has overcome over the past few years the game of golf just looks and seems easy for him right now. For those who don’t know the story, Kirk had to put his career on hold in 2020 due to severe battles with alcoholism and depression, and since then he has been on a self-professed quest to rediscover the joy in his life and his love of the game of golf. In that vein, he spent this offseason learning how to play left-handed, finally breaking 80 in December before returning to the right side of the ball. He absolutely pured it last week, shooting 29-under and holding off all comers with a constant stream of birdies (what about the one on 17 on Sunday?!?!). He’s been a streaky player throughout his career so I expect more great golf ahead, and he has a tremendous record at this tournament that includes a pair of runner-up finishes (’14, ’21) and a 3rd-place showing last year. Kirk is the favorite this week in my eyes, making him a terrific value at a price like 30.0.
Adam Svensson (50.0)- Svensson emerged as a week-to-week force last season, racking up eight top-10 finishes and his first career victory. He finished the year on a high note, firing a 62 in the final round of the RSM Classic to sneak into the top 5, and he posted 18-under over four rounds in Kapalua last week, so we know his game is sharp. Svensson isn’t a bomber, but prodigious length is not a requirement at Waialae and he’s enjoyed some success here, making the cut in all three of his appearances at this event and finishing 7th in 2022. I’m telling you, this guy is one the rise– he’s poised to have a big start to 2024 and is a definite contender this week. I love the value we’re getting at around 50/1.
Webb Simpson (270.0)- Look, I realize it’s been a few years since Simpson has been a force on Tour… most weeks the putting struggles have simply proven too difficult to overcome. However, he does pop up and contend every now and again, like his 5th-place showing at the Wyndham four starts ago, and he’s still one of the better iron players on Tour. Something else is true about Simpson: he absolutely loves it at Waialae, making millions at this event over the course of his career. He finished in the top-15 here every year from 2015-2021, a stretch highlighted by 4th-place showings in 2021 and 2018 and a T3 in 2020. If his putting gets right, which it does occasionally– if he can find just a little something to wake up the echoes of great putting rounds past, on this very course– then he could absolutely win this week. At a price like 270.0, I’m willing to take my chances.
