ST. JUDE CLASSIC: The week before a major championship is always a bit spotty on the PGA Tour, with many players in self-proclaimed “tune up” mode and many others choosing skip the event entirely. This year’s FedEx St. Jude Classic is no exception, as several participants in next week’s U.S. Open have chosen to spend an extra week learning Oakmont’s intricacies instead of competing on a short, tight, Bermuda-covered course in steamy Memphis (and “steamy” isn’t just a cute adjective here– temps are expected to approach 100 degrees (F) this weekend, at around 60% humidity). That being said, there’s still ample top-flight talent on hand this week and this tournament usually produces an exciting finish, so golf enthusiasts and bettors should find plenty to whet their appetite before next week’s main course.

Although it isn’t quite as strenuous as a U.S. Open layout, TPC Southwind is a course with teeth, make no mistake about it. A par 70 with tight fairways and unusually small greens, Southwind has hosted this event since 1989 and nearly always holds up well. Only once in the past 11 years, as a matter of fact, has the eventual champion reached 15-under par, and in five of the past six years Southwind has ranked among the top-10 most difficult courses on Tour (relative par). This is primarily because guys are chipping all the time– players found the greens in regulation just over 60% of the time last year, and in years past the number has been even lower. The undersized greens can be nearly impossible to hold from the rough once they firm up (which they always do, and we’re expecting sunshine this week…), and the narrow fairways ensure that players are approaching the greens from the rough quite often. Good iron players and scramblers: that’s what we’re looking for this week.

Argentina’s Fabian Gomez triumphed last year and is back to defend, but even a price like 128.0 isn’t enough to tempt me to back a guy who has only found the top-25 once in his last 13 starts and has missed 7 cuts in that span. It’s worth noting, however, that longshot winners have been somewhat common in this tournament, as 8 of the past 10 champions have entered the week at 80/1 or longer. With that in mind, here are this week’s selections:

WIN MARKET

Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)

Daniel Berger (32.0)- Berger has never played this tournament before, and normally that fact alone would keep me away. First-timers have experienced considerable success at TPC Southwind, though, taking home the trophy in three of the past five years, and Berger has been red-hot lately, logging top-20 finishes in 6 of his last 7 starts. Plus, Southwind is very similar stylistically to the Bermuda-covered Florida courses that Berger has thrived on. While I’m staying away from the top of the market this week, I can’t resist showing a little love to Berger at better than 30/1.

Chad Campbell (68.0)- Though he’s now well into the “journeyman” phase of his career and hasn’t won in years, Chad Campbell has been resurgent of late and is still an elite ball-striker when he’s swinging it well. He comes in this week on the heels of back-to-back top-12 finishes and, most importantly, he has a stellar record in this event, making the cut in all six of his appearances and registering two top-10s, including a T8 last year. He may not be a guy that you look at most weeks, but this week, on this golf course, Campbell is an absolute bargain at a price like 68.0.

Boo Weekley (102.0)- Weekley may struggle with the putter from time to time, but he’s one of the most consistent guys on Tour tee-to-green and he’s shown flashes of greatness in recent weeks, finishing 16th at The Players despite a 3rd-round 78 and then shooting 7-under over four rounds at the Byron Nelson despite opening with a 76. Weekley is a native southerner who excels on Bermuda grass and generally plays his best golf in the Southeast, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he has a good record at TPC Southwind and finished 8th in this event just last year. If you’re looking for a “live” longshot, you could do a lot worse.

TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS

Brooks Koepka (1.91) vs. Phil Mickelson (1.91)

Koepka seems like the natural pick here– he finished third in this tournament last year and 19th in his only other appearance, and he lost the Byron Nelson in a playoff in his last start. He’s battled consistency issues this year, though, missing three cuts and finding the top-20 in just three of his past 10 events, and Mickelson has been spectacular at TPC Southwind, finishing T2-T11-T3 in his last three appearances at the St. Jude. Lefty often plays well the week before a major, too. Recommendation: Mickelson at 1.91

Gary Woodland (1.91) vs. Harris English (1.91)

As a past champion who’s been on a good run of late, English has been a popular pick this week. He doesn’t always play well at Southwind, however– after his victory in 2013 he missed the cut in 2014 and finished 45th last year. Woodland hasn’t played this event since 2013 but he did finish 18th that year, so he clearly knows how to get around the course. More importantly, he seems to be peaking of late, stringing together T28-T12-T4 run in his last three starts. I was considering backing Woodland in the overall market, but I’ll settle for this. Recommendation: Woodland at 1.91