ST. JUDE CLASSIC: The FedEx St. Jude Classic is both one of the longest-running events on the PGA Tour, stretching back some 60 years, and one of its most important in ways that stretch far beyond golf, as this tournament has helped to raise more than $33 million for the St. Jude Children’s Hospital since 1970.
It’s always difficult for a tournament to maintain relevance when it’s held the week before a major, but the St. Jude does about as well as can be expected, and this marks tenth consecutive year that it’s directly preceded the U.S. Open. The vibe is friendly and relaxed, much like the RBC Heritage, which follows the Masters, and players seem to like spending a summertime week in steamy Memphis, which, in addition to being a great live music town with a lot of music history, is also home to some of the best barbecue in the USA.
The course, TPC Southwind, is a straightforward Ron Prichard/Fuzzy Zoeller design that was built in 1988 and has hosted this event since ’89. A par-70 that measures 7,244 yards, it features narrow fairways and small, firm Bermuda greens. Though it’s never been considered easy, it was much friendlier prior to a redesign in 2004, when it was lengthened, tightened, and saw the addition of several new trees and bunkers. It’s now become a demanding layout that requires accuracy off the tee and a deft touch around the greens, which are among the most difficult on the PGA Tour to find in regulation.
Length off the tee doesn’t hurt, either, though TPC Southwind isn’t a “bombers only” type of place. Last year’s champion, Daniel Berger, is one of the longest young players on Tour, but it was his iron play that carried him to the victory, as he led the field in Greens in Regulation for the week and hit several highlight-reel approach shots that led to easy birdies (I remember the week clearly, because we recommended and backed Berger at 32.0). Berger is back to defend and is hovering near the top of BETDAQ’s Win Market, with only six players saddled with shorter odds at the time of this writing. He shot 77-78 over the weekend in his last start, however, so I recommend looking elsewhere this week. Here are three names you may want to consider:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Russell Henley (30.0)- Though he’s coming off a missed cut at the Byron Nelson, Henley is putting together a great season, with seven top-16 finishes, including a win, over his last 14 starts. His victory in Houston also happened to come the week before a major (the Masters), which has to give him some good vibes this week if nothing else, and, like a lot of good iron players, he has a nice history on par-70 layouts. Add in the fact that he’s a native Southerner who feels most comfortable on Bermuda grass, and you have someone who seems like a perfect fit for TPC Southwind. Henley validated those assumptions last year, finishing 7th in this event despite having missed three cuts and finishing no better than 33rd in his previous five PGA Tour starts. He’s playing much better now, so there’s no reason to think he won’t contend this week, and he’s shown in his brief career that he’s not afraid of closing the deal on Sunday.
Seung-yul Noh (64.0)- While Noh certainly isn’t the most consistent player in the world, he’s shown the ability to take it deep when he’s right, and he’s made the vast majority of his money since joining the PGA Tour on a small handful of courses. Well, one of those courses happens to be TPC Southwind, where Noh has three top-10s in four career appearances, including a T3 in 2015. And it’s not like he’s been chopping it lately– his 5th-place finish at the Wells Fargo came just four starts ago, and he followed that up with a top-25 at the Players. So there’s a lot to like about Noh this week, making him well worth a bet at a price like 64.0.
Stewart Cink (76.0)- It may seem like Cink should be preparing for the Champions Tour, but he’s not there yet, and if his play in recent weeks is any indication then we might see him add to his PGA Tour trophy case before heading off to play with the old guys. Finally healthy and with personal issues in the rearview mirror, Cink has been teeing it up a lot lately, playing five tournaments in the past seven weeks. Three of those have resulted in top-25 finishes, including last week at the Memorial, and Cink has now found the top-30 in 8 of his last 10 starts overall. So he’s been playing some quality golf, and now he comes to a place where he has lots of experience and some good memories (though no great memories… yet): TPC Southwind. The will be Cink’s ninth appearance here and he’s made 7 of 8 cuts, with three top-20s and a top-10 to show for his effort. I know he’s flying under the radar these days as someone who is generally viewed as over the hill, but Southwind is the type of course where the older guys can still succeed, and Cink still has enough game to get the job done. I’m happy to hop aboard at the current price.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Phil Mickelson (1.91) vs. Francesco Molinari (1.91)
Molinari is up there with the big boys in the overall market this week, as only four players are currently carrying shorter odds. One of those is Mickelson, who has a great record at Southwind, with three top-3 finishes– including two runner-ups– in his last four appearances and who may be putting extra emphasis on this event due to his plans to skip next week’s U.S. Open. Lefty has had a difficult year, however, registering just one top-15 in his last ten starts, while Molinari has seven top-15s on the PGA Tour this season and is coming off a runner-up finish in the European Tour’s BMW PGA Championship. Recommendation: Molinari at 1.91
Brooks Koepka (1.91) vs. Adam Scott (1.91)
A ball-striker of Scott’s quality should like it at TPC Southwind, and indeed the Aussie finished 7th in this tournament in his only appearance. That was way back in 2007, however, and you’d have thought that Scott would’ve come back at some point had he liked the place. It’s a bit of a surprise that he’s playing this week, but maybe he’s trying to build some momentum after breaking 70 just once in his last 12 competitive rounds. Koepka has been posting the low numbers with a little more regularity, and his record in this event is terrific: T19-T3-T2 in three career starts. He’s a definite threat to win this week. Recommendation: Koepka at 1.91
