HOUSTON OPEN: One of the more underrated events on the schedule gets underway in Houston this week, and all eyes are on World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler as he tries for his third consecutive victory after high-profile wins at Bay Hill and The Players. Scheffler is a native Texan, of course, and over the last two years he’s finished runner-up and T9 at this tournament, so it’s no surprise that he’s the overwhelming favorite this week and is currently trading at a Tiger-like 3.95 at BETDAQ.
Scheffler isn’t the only big-name player in attendance, however, and that hasn’t always been the case in the long history of the Houston Open. This tournament was sort of lost in the wilderness for a few years, being held on corporate, soulless golf courses and at inconvenient times on the schedule, like the week before Augusta or during the Fall Series, when many of the better players are taking time off. All of those issues have been fixed– there’s now a buffer week between this tournament and the Masters, clearing way for guys who want to stay sharp but don’t want to be in action the week before a Major to play, and, more importantly, the event has found a worthy and permanent home in Memorial Park Golf Course, a public-access gem that sits right in the heart of the Houston metroplex and has drawn rave reviews from the players.
Originally built over a century ago as a recreational grounds for soldiers recovering at nearby Camp Logan hospital and then re-designed by John Bredemus in the 1930s, Memorial Park retains a classic, old-school feel despite being extensively renovated and modernized by Tom Doak and Brooks Koepka in 2019. The course is now a real challenge for the pros, measuring over 7,400 yards from the tips and featuring difficult green complexes with severe run-offs and mounding that require the players to call upon their short game creativity. But these same features make the course fun to play for the recreational golfer– think slopes and collection areas as opposed to bunkers and water hazards– and have allowed the course to retain its unique charm as a place that is accessible to all yet a challenge for the best. Should you ever find yourself in the Houston area, a round at Memorial Park is relatively inexpensive and highly recommended.
A quality field of contenders has lined up to try and slow down Scheffler this week, led by his new rival Wyndham Clark (15.0), who is probably tired of standing on the figurative podium and watching Scheffler collect all these trophies. If Scottie is right, though, I’m not sure anyone can stay with him. With that in mind, here are some bets to consider:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Scottie Scheffler (3.95)– I know, I know: picking the favorite is boring and doesn’t pay that great, especially in this case. When you write articles like this picking the overwhelming favorite is a no-win proposition because if you’re right, it was obvious, and if you’re wrong, you’re an idiot for chasing such short odds given the relative long odds of any individual winning a full-field PGA Tour event. And yet… and yet. Here you have a guy who is potentially the most dominant player we’ve seen since peak Tiger (certainly the most dominant tee-to-green player of the last 20 years), and he’s at the apex of his powers. Moreover, he’s heading to his home state, to a course where he finished runner-up two years ago (and T9 last year), he’s coming off a rest week (didn’t play the Valspar) and he’ll take next week off to prepare for Augusta, so there’s absolutely nothing stopping him from being fully locked in on winning this tournament. And he will win– take it to the bank. The price won’t seem so short come Sunday afternoon.
Mackenzie Hughes (54.0)– Hughes has really rounded into form over the past few weeks, finishing 31st or better in 4 of his past 5 starts. At last week’s Valspar Championship he hung around the first page of the leaderboard all weekend and ended up in a tie for 3rd, his best result this season, so he’s playing some great golf right now and should be full of confidence. He’s been something of a Bermuda specialist throughout his career, which has undoubtedly played a role in his recent stretch of success on the Bermuda-covered courses of Florida, and it’s more wall-to-wall Bermuda this week at Memorial Park. Maybe that’s one reason why he’s played so well at this tournament these past few years, finishing 16th in 2020 and T7 last year. With a record like that and the form we’ve seen from him lately, Hughes is a legit threat this week and should be given serious consideration at better than 50/1.
Andrew Novak (140.0)- Heading into this season Novak had 60 career PGA Tour starts under his belt and had only made 33 cuts, with two top-10 finishes. In other words, he hadn’t yet found his footing. We’re three months into 2024, however, and that appears to have changed. The 28-year-old Novak has been playing some tremendous golf of late, rattling off three consecutive top-10s in Phoenix, Mexico, and the Cognizant and then finishing T17 at the Valspar last week. He’s hot and is surely brimming with confidence, and though this will be his first time seeing Memorial Park in competition, the layout and style will feel very familiar to a kid who grew up on the Bermuda-heavy courses of the Southeast US, as is the case with Novak, a Carolina native. I’m very comfortable taking a chance on someone who has been riding the rocketship of great golf in recent weeks at a price like 140.0, especially since the PGA Tour has given us breakthroughs and surprises on almost a weekly basis this season. Maybe this week it will be Novak’s turn. Why not?
