AMEX: The PGA Tour begins its wintertime California Swing this week in Palm Springs, where a strong field will have to navigate a three-round pro-am before things get serious on Sunday. This tournament, which dates back to the 1960s and for decades was known as the Bob Hope Classic, has always been a pro-am, and until 2012 it was contested over five rounds, a rarity in the world of pro golf. Due in part to declining field strength, however, the event was shortened to the traditional four rounds over a decade ago and has returned to a position of prominence on the early-season schedule.
As has been the case for the past nine years, a three-course rotation will be used this week, with the players alternating between PGA West- Stadium, PGA West- Nicklaus, and La Quinta Country Club over the first three rounds before all the action moves to the Stadium Course on Sunday. While none of the three courses are particularly difficult by Tour standards, the Stadium Course does challenge the players off the tee in spots and therefore always plays the hardest of the three, with both of the other courses, and particularly LaQuinta, yielding lots of low numbers. Due in no small part to the amateur-friendly setup over the first three days, this tournament is always a birdie fest, and scores seem to be getting lower every year. Case in point: last year’s champion, Nick Dunlap, shot a third-round 60 at LaQuinta en route to a tournament record 259 (29-under) and still only won by 1 shot, with three other players finishing 2 strokes behind.
Dunlap was still an amateur at this time last year and would go on to become the first am to win on Tour since 1991, and this year he’s back to defend and will be able to collect a paycheck for his efforts. He’s currently sitting at 48.0 on the BETDAQ exchange, a pretty fair price for a guy who won not once but twice in 2024, his rookie season on Tour, and is coming off a solid performance at the Sony last week, where he finished 10th. Justin Thomas (16.5) and Sung-jae Im (18.5) are your market leaders, but it’s worth noting that, with the exception of Jon Rahm’s two victories in the past decade, this tournament has generally produced unexpected, long-odds winners, with four of the past six champions starting the week as triple-digit longshots. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Sam Burns (20.0)- I’ve seen a few people tipping Burns this week and the logic is sound: he has a terrific record at this tournament, finishing 6th last year and finding the top-10 in 3 of his past 4 appearances, and he’s coming off a strong performance in Kapalua a couple of weeks ago, posting 23-under and finishing 10th. A 5-time winner on Tour, Burns has all the physical gifts and has clearly had a mental breakthrough of sorts over the past couple of years as he’s piled up victories and top-5 finishes. He’s on the cusp of being truly elite and I fully expect him to win multiple times this year. He’s a top option this week and the price is fair. Fire away.
Eric Cole (66.0)- Cole has established himself as consistent performer and he’s closing in on his first PGA Tour victory, logging four top-16 finishes and two top-10s in his last five starts, including a solo 5th at the Sony last week, where he shot 68 or better in all four rounds. He’s played this tournament in each of the past two years, making the cut both times and finishing T21 last year, so he should be plenty comfortable with the pro-am format and the alternating courses. An aggressive player, Cole generally fares well on the easier tracks where birdies in bunches are required, and this week certainly fits the bill in that regard. At a price like 66.0, he just might be the best value on the board.
Keith Mitchell (102.0)- Mitchell struggled a bit towards the end of last season, missing four straight cuts after a T3 at the Sanderson Farms Championship in October, and perhaps that’s why his price is so big here. But his game looked just fine at the Sony Open last week, where he snuck into the top-30 after a Sunday 65, and he has a nice record at this event which includes a T9 last year and a T22 in 2023. Mitchell is a world-class ball-striker who ranked in the top-15 last year in both strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained on approach, and he putted well at the Sony last week, which is a great sign. He’s definitely capable of winning this week and is a tremendous value at such an inflated price.