AMEX: Though it now has the most corporate of names, the tournament we know as The American Express is a unique event with a long and colorful history that dates back to the 1960s, when it became associated with comedian/entertainer Bob Hope. While I realize that only those advanced in years were around to truly appreciate the impact Hope had on American culture in the 40s and 50s, there’s no doubt he was a key figure in professional golf’s growth from a niche sport to a worldwide entertainment spectacle with millions up for grabs every week. For context, the World Golf Hall of Fame has an entire room devoted to Hope prominently located near the entrance. The man had an outsized impact for someone who couldn’t break 80, that’s for sure.
Hope’s name was attached to this event from 1965-2012, and it was his baby, drawing large crowds with a pro-am format that paired the pros with Hollywood celebrities. The pro-am format remains, and though the amateur/celebrity contingent isn’t quite as glitzy as it was in Hope’s day, there will be plenty of aging ex-athletes, B-list actors, and business titans scuffing it around for three days before things get serious on the pros-only Sunday. The Sunday action will all be at the course formerly known as PGA West Stadium (they’re calling it something different now, I think, and I refuse to learn the name until I have to), but there will be a rotation for the first three rounds, with PGA West Nicklaus and La Quinta Country Club also thrown into the mix. La Quinta is by far the easiest of the three and indeed is one of the easiest tracks on the Tour schedule, so we can expect some crazy-low numbers there and would do well to keep that in mind as we watch the market shift over Thursday and Friday.
The Stadium Course is the most challenging of the three venues, with a handful of stressful tee shots and penalty areas in play on several holes, but it’s not particularly difficult by Tour standards, either, and with the amateur-friendly setup over the first three days, it’s going to take 25-under or better to hoist the trophy this week. You’d better bring your birdies.
The one and only Scottie Scheffler is making his 2026 debut, and — surprise, surprise — he’s the overwhelming favorite on the BETDAQ exchange, where he’s currently trading at around 4.4 while his closest market competitors are hovering around 28.0. Regular readers of this column know that I’m not shy about backing Scheffler at a short price, but in this situation, with the layoff, the weird format, and the green-light, defenseless nature of the courses, I’m (gulp) going to take my chances with some of the longer-odds guys. Here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Sam Burns (36.0)- Scheffler’s good buddy Sam Burns had a pretty good year himself in 2025, racking up six top-10s, finishing runner-up at the Canadian Open, and making an impressive run in the FedEx Cup Playoffs that ended with a T7 at the Tour Championship. We haven’t seen him in action since December’s Hero World Challenge, where he finished T11, but he seems like a good bet to start 2026 strong at a place where he’s enjoyed considerable success over the years, with two top-10s and four top-20 finishes across six career appearances at this event. Burns is a demon on the greens, leading the Tour in strokes gained putting last year, so when the tee-to-green test is minimal and it becomes a putting contest, look out: he can get hot and post some seriously low numbers. He’s a top contender this week and a nice value at the current price.
Harry Hall (42.0)- Now entering what should be his golfing prime at age 28, Hall has put together a string of impressive results in recent months, logging top-25 finishes in 12 of his past 13 PGA Tour starts, including a T6 at the Sony Open last week, where he opened with a 65 and hung around the lead all four rounds. Sometimes getting a taste of contention like that can bode well for the weeks ahead, and though Hall has never posted any noteworthy finishes in this tournament, he’s steadily improved across his four career appearances, with a T21 last year his best performance yet. It’s worth mentioning, though, that he’s never headed into this tournament playing the type of golf he is now, with incredible consistency and a putting touch that is among the world’s best. Hall keeps knocking on the door, and soon, very soon, he’s going to kick it down. Maybe this week…
Pierceson Coody (110.0)- Grandson of 1971 Masters champ Charles Coody, Pierceson has proven to be just a bit better than twin brother Parker, who also plays on Tour, and is poised for a big leap in the World Rankings after earning full playing privileges for 2026 following a successful season split between the Big Tour and the Korn Ferry circuit. He got a real taste of PGA Tour contention a couple of times over the back half of 2025, finishing T3 in both the 3M Open and the Bank of Utah Championship, and he was in fine form in Hawaii last week, firing a final round 64 to finish T13 at the Sony. He doesn’t have much of a history at this tournament, but we know he likes it out West, and if keeps some of those feelings going he had at Waialae he should be able to pile up some birdies on these player-friendly tracks. If you’re looking for a triple-digit longshot with a real chance to make some noise this week, Coody is your man.
