THE MEMORIAL: Jack Nicklaus is personally involved with just about every aspect of The Memorial, and his presence is a big reason why the tournament routinely features one of the strongest fields on the PGA Tour. This year is certainly no exception, as the top five players in the world are all in attendance and are joined by a host of other big names. The Golden Bear isn’t the only draw, though– the timing of the event is ideal, as we’re now three weeks removed from The Players Championship and just two weeks away from the U.S. Open, so players have had the opportunity to rest after Sawgrass (if rest was desired) and will now look to sharpen things up for Oakmont.
And then there’s the golf course– Muirfield Village is one of the most beloved stops on Tour, a place that is roundly praised by just about everyone who sets foot on the premises. Designed by Nicklaus himself back in 1974, Muirfield is a lush, green, park-like course with fairly generous fairways and small, lightning-fast bentgrass greens. It has hosted The Memorial every year since the tournament’s inception in 1976, and it usually provides a tough-but-fair challenge and fan-friendly leaderboard. Tiger Woods is a 5-time champion of this event, and other notable winners include Ernie Els, Justin Rose, Fred Couples, Paul Azinger, Greg Norman, Tom Watson, Hale Irwin, Ray Floyd, and, of course, Nicklaus. Length off the tee is prioritized more than accuracy, but Muirfield is widely known as an “approach-shot” golf course; the fairways are fairly easy to find but the greens are small and segmented, so iron play is at a premium.
David Lingmerth triumphed in a playoff last year but his recent form suggests that a return to the winner’s circle is unlikely, although a small bet on him at 132.0 probably isn’t the worst idea in the world. Jason Day (7.4), Jordan Spieth (8.4), and Rory McIlroy (9.0) are the market leaders at BETDAQ, and incredibly they were all victorious in their last start– Spieth at the Dean & Deluca, McIlroy at the Irish Open, and Day at The Players Championship. When’s the last time the top three players in the world were all coming off a win?!?! The stage is certainly set for an exciting week…
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Hideki Matsuyama (17.5)- Is there any place on God’s green earth that Matsuyama likes more than Muirfield Village? He won this tournament in 2014, finished 5th last year, and has broken par in every round he’s ever played at Nicklaus’s venerable layout. It’s the tee-to-green precision that separates the young Japanese phenom from his competitors, as he ranks fifth on Tour in ‘Strokes Gained: Tee to Green’ and has long been regarded as one of the world’s best iron players. And if it seems like Matsuyama contends every week, that’s because he basically does– he’s only finished outside the top-20 once in his last eleven worldwide starts, and his recent T7-T11-T7 run suggests that a big summer may be right around the corner. Don’t be surprised if he kicks it off with a win this week.
Chris Kirk (100.0)– I’ll always jump at the chance to back a bona-fide contender who’s priced as a longshot, and that’s exactly what we have with Chris Kirk this week. Kirk is an underrated ball-striker who has quietly been playing some excellent golf over the past couple of months, finding the top-15 in five of his last six starts and nearly pulling out a win in New Orleans. He shot 65-69 over the weekend at Colonial a few days ago, so he should be brimming with confidence, and his 4th-place showing at The Memorial back in 2014 suggests that he’s very comfortable at Muirfield Village. Kirk may not be the first name that pops into your head when you’re thinking about the favorites this week, but at a price like 100.0 he may be the best value on the board.
Bud Cauley (250.0)- If you seek a genuine longshot and the chance to amaze your friends with your prognostication abilities, you may want to have a look at Bud Cauley. Though he’s never done anything particularly noteworthy in this tournament, he has made the cut in both of his appearances and has gone on record calling Muirfield Village his favorite course on Tour. More importantly, Cauley finally seems to have awakened after a prolonged slump, as he finished 4th in the Byron Nelson two weeks ago and could’ve won if a couple of more putts had fallen for him on Sunday. A good, young player who has been largely forgotten by many observers, Cauley is one to watch this week as he creeps back towards relevance.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Dustin Johnson (1.95) vs. Matt Kuchar (1.91)
Though he’s priced as a slight underdog here, Johnson is generally regarded as a stronger player than Kuchar and I’d imagine he’ll draw some action in this head-to-head matchup. I’d be careful about that, though– Kuchar has been red-hot lately, finishing 3rd, 3rd, and 6th in his past three starts, and he has a spectacular record at Muirfield Village, winning this tournament in 2013 and finding the top-10 four additional times (and the top-15 seven times in ten career appearances). He’s a blue-chip option this week. Recommendation: Kuchar at 1.91
Jordan Spieth (1.95) vs. Rory McIlroy (1.91)
Both Spieth and McIlroy have good records at Muirfield Village, and as mentioned above they were both victorious the last time they teed it up. This bet is simply about which guy you have more confidence in at the moment, and for me that guy is Spieth. Yes, I realize that McIlroy’s wins tend to come in bunches and he may be poised for a serious hot streak, but it’s difficult to ignore the fact that his putting has let him down far more than it’s bailed him out over the past few months, and as a result the wins have been few and far between. Spieth, meanwhile, was one hole away from cruising to a dominant Masters win, but after he let it get away and then missed the cut at The Players the pundits began tripping over themselves to declare that Spieth was in the midst of a “slump”. Well that didn’t last very long, did it? Something tells me that last week’s victory got the Augusta-sized monkey off of Spieth’s back and will re-open the floodgates of success. Recommendation: Spieth at 1.95
