THE PLAYERS: The PGA Tour’s best have gathered at TPC Sawgrass this week for an event that not too long ago boasted both the biggest purse and strongest field in professional golf but is now entering a new era. That’s right, the Players Championship, the PGA Tour’s crown jewel event which is held right in the backyard of their global HQ on a course that was specifically built to host it, has unquestionably been hurt by the LIV defections more than any tournament in the world.
Long referred to as golf’s “Fifth Major”, it has no grounds on which to claim that any longer now that a sizable portion of the world’s best players are no longer eligible. Rahm, Koepka, Johnson, DeChambeau, Smith, Niemann… you know the names, and there are plenty more. Of course, whispers of compromises, deals, and player transfers have been in the air for the past few months, but for now we have two worldwide tours, with the sport’s biggest names pretty much evenly split. The majors will still afford us the opportunity to see all (well… most) of the best players in the same place, so those events stand alone, and as for The Players… it gets moved into the bin with the Genesis, API, Memorial, and other “strong but not elite” events. It’s a steep fall from grace when you’ve been a standalone spectacle, the Fifth Major, for so many decades, but it’s where the tournament finds itself in 2024.
That said, we still have some exciting golf on tap for the next four days, and this is one of those weeks where the star of the show is really the golf course– the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass is a bucket-list venue for most golfers and it features what is probably the most famous hole in the world, the island green par-3 17th. Like most Pete Dye tracks, TPC Stadium is demanding off the tee and visually intimidating, with narrow fairways lined by trees and sticky Bermuda rough, and water hazards coming into play on more than half the holes. The greens are small and segmented, so the targets are particularly small, which is why strong iron players always thrive here and a deft touch around the greens is an absolute must, as even the best ball-strikers will be chipping at times. It’s a strenuous test of a player’s entire bag, with nearly every club being used and nearly every shot-shape being called upon, but at 7,250 yards it’s not particularly long by modern standards, so it’s a place where wily vets who can’t keep up with the bombers off the tee can still compete.
After a brilliant performance at Bay Hill last week Scottie Scheffler is the clear favorite on the BETDAQ Exchange, where he’s currently trading at 6.7 while the player with the next-shortest odds (Rory McIlroy) can be had at a much more robust 18.0. Scheffler is the defending champion here, of course, and he seems to be in that comfort zone where he almost has a look of amusement on his face most of the time… we’ve seen it before from the World No. 1, and we know he’s nearly impossible to beat when he’s in that zone. The price is awfully short, however, and this tournament has never had anyone successfully defend their title (which speaks to the uncompromising nature of the course), so I think I’ll take my chances with these three instead:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Max Homa (28.0)- Homa has quietly put together a really nice start to the season, finding the top-20 in four of the six events he’s played in 2024, including a T8 at Bay Hill last week. Despite growing up in California he’s showed throughout his career that he’s very comfortable on Bermuda greens, so I expect him to really have success over the next few weeks after a mediocre stretch with the flat stick out West… he looked like he was right at home last week, back in his comfort zone. Tee to green he’s been playing some really clean golf, ranking 26th on Tour in total strokes gained and 15th in bogey avoidance, so he should be well-prepared for a demanding test like TPC Sawgrass. He’s already proven that the course fits his game nicely, finishing 6th in this tournament last year and T13 in 2022, and you just get the feeling that he’ll be hoisting the trophy here someday. “Someday” might be this week…
Ludvig Aberg (41.0)- I read somewhere recently that Aberg has “cooled off.” Well, if you call four straight top-25s and a runner-up finish just three starts ago “cooling off”, it’s pretty scary to imagine what it’ll be like when he’s “heating up”, isn’t it? Fact is, Aberg has been positively machine-like since bursting onto the scene a couple of years ago, and the 24-year-old is now poised to challenge the very best players on the very biggest of stages. It’s true that he’s never played this tournament before and we haven’t seen a debutante win at TPC Sawgrass since Craig Perks in 2002. It’s also true that this will be the last time in many years that you see him with a price like 41.0 listed next to his name… the rocket ship has taken off, and in a couple more years there won’t be a golfer on the planet who doesn’t know this guy’s name. Aberg at 40/1? Anywhere, any time.
Sung Jae Im (88.0)- Though he’s a bit inconsistent at times, Im is a birdie-making machine who has no fear of circumstance and seems impervious to pressure. He’s racked up four wins and five runner-up finishes playing his brand of balls-out, fearless golf, and though TPC Sawgrass would seemingly favor players who are very mindful and conservative in their tee-to-green approach, the intricacies of Dye’s layout don’t see to bother Im much, as he’s found the top-20 here in 2 of the past 3 years, including a T6 last year. He’s coming off a T18 at Bay Hill last week, his best performance since January, so he should have plenty of confidence as he rolls into the Tour’s biggest event. Don’t be surprised if Sung Jae crashes the party this year and puts his feet up on the table. He doesn’t care… he’s coming for those birdies. Gimme all that action at a price like 88.0…
