The PGA Tour’s Florida Swing rolls on this week with the Valspar Championship, where a 144-man field that features 7 of the world’s top 16 players will tackle Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course, a layout that generally ranks among the toughest on Tour. John Senden’s 7-under par 277 was good enough to get the job done last year, and Senden is back to defend his title, though oddsmakers don’t fancy his chances (90/1 at BETDAQ).
Adam Scott and Jordan Spieth (both 14/1) are currently listed as co-favorites at BETDAQ, followed closely by world No. 3 Henrik Stenson (16/1), who is making his first career appearance at this event. Kevin Streelman (99/1), Luke Donald (24/1), Gary Woodland (47/1), and Retief Goosen (77/1) are among the former champions in the field, and Donald in particular has been impressive here, recording three top-6 finishes and a victory in his last four appearances.
While none of our three pre-tournement selections sniffed the top of the leaderboard at last week’s WGC Cadillac Championship, we did manage to keep our money in our pockets by winning both of our tournament match bets, though it didn’t save us from a boring Sunday (no players in contention, neither match bet close). Hopefully things will be a bit more interesting this weekend…
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Harris English (41)- English hasn’t played much over the past month and he missed the cut at the Honda Classic in his last start, making him an under-the-radar pick this week. Based on what we’ve seen out of him this year, though, the 71-74 at the Honda doesn’t bother me much, and Innisbrook, with its Bermuda-covered fairways and greens, seems like a good venue for English, a native Southerner who grew up playing on Bermuda grass. Indeed, English has some good history at this event (and when I say “this event” I’m referring to the Tour’s annual stop at Innisbrook, as this particular tournament seems to change its name every year), finishing 7th in 2013 and breaking 70 in five of his ten career rounds at the Copperhead Course. His stellar 2015 campaign has included top-5 finishes at the Sony and the Farmers Insurance Open, where he lost in a 4-man playoff. At the generous price of 40/1, English is my favorite bet on the board this week.
Nick Watney (52)- Watney always plays well at Innisbrook, making the cut in each of his last 7 appearances at this event and finishing 4th in 2010 (he also recorded top-15 finishes in 2009 and 2011). More importantly, he’s found his game again after a substandard 2014 campaign that saw him miss 10 cuts and record only one top-10 in 25 starts. He’s been red-hot in 2015, finishing 2nd at the AT&T, 7th at the Farmers Insurance Open, and 14th at the Humana. With a week off since shooting 73-71-71-69 at the Honda, he should be rested and ready for the Copperhead Course and all its challenges, challenges he’s had little trouble negotiating in the past. An elite player teeing it up at a place where he feels very comfortable, Watney’s a tremendous value at 50/1.
Sang-Moon Bae (64)- With four top-10 finishes in 10 starts on the PGA Tour this season, Bae has established himself as one of the world’s premier players. This week he’ll make his return to the place where it all started: Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course, where back in 2012 a then-unknown Bae shot four consecutive sub-70 rounds to sneak into a 4-man playoff that was eventually won by Luke Donald. Bae has steadily improved since that time and has now moved up to 78th in the latest world rankings, one spot ahead of some guy named Tiger Woods. He’s also continued his mastery of the Copperhead Course, finishing 14th last year after a final-round 67. Considering his recent form, this week’s venue, and the current odds, Bae is certainly worth a small bet.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Adam Scott (1.8) vs. Jordan Spieth (2)
Adam Scott has never fared particularly well at Innisbrook, missing the cut twice and finishing no better than 28th in five career starts. Spieth, meanwhile, has played this event in each of the past two years, finishing 7th in 2013 and 20th last year. Plus, Spieth has played a lot more golf than Scott lately and he’s played very well, finishing 4th at Riviera, 7th at both Pebble and Phoenix, and 17th last week. Recommendation: Spieth at 2
Brandt Snedeker (1.91) vs. Justin Rose (1.91)
Snedeker has played some great golf in 2015, racking up top-20 finishes in 4 of his past 5 starts and winning the AT&T last month. However, he has extensive history at Innisbrook and that history has been decidedly mixed, with two top-10s joined by a host of disappointing performances, including a missed cut and four finishes of 40th or worse. Rose, on the other hand, is an absolute machine at this event, finishing 29th or better in all seven of his career appearances. Rose hasn’t quite been himself over the past few weeks, but I’m betting that a few rounds on the Copperhead Course is just what he needs to get things turned around. He plays this tournament every year for a reason: it’s a confidence-builder. Recommendation: Rose at 1.91
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