VALSPAR: After a thrilling week at TPC Sawgrass the golf season has officially kicked into high gear, as the world’s top player has reasserted himself and new rivals have begun to emerge, most notably the red-hot Wyndham Clark. We’re only three weeks out from the Masters, of course, so this is a critical time for many players and the activity has ramped up accordingly.
That’s a big reason why this week’s Valspar Championship has the strongest field it’s seen in several years, with the likes of Xander Schauffele (8.6), Justin Thomas (17.0), Jordan Spieth (22.0), and Brian Harman (24.0) heading BETDAQ’s Win Market. The tournament has certainly come a long way since its beginnings as an opposite field event in the early 2000s, and its early Spring slot on the schedule has proven ideal for players who want to stay sharp before Augusta but generally don’t want to play in the week or two leading up to a Major.
Having a great golf course as the host venue certainly doesn’t hurt either and Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course is one of the most underrated tracks on Tour, a real hidden gem that tests every facet of a player’s game. Originally designed by Larry Packard in the early 70s, Copperhead had undergone several small tweaks prior to a major renovation in 1999 which transformed it from a traditional resort course to a 7,400-yard beast that can test every club in the bag. Narrow dog-legs, firm and fast greens with undulation uncommon for a Florida course, strategic bunkering, and water that comes into play on half the holes are a few of the challenges that must be dealt with this week, and the three most difficult holes on the course are numbers 16, 17, and 18, a closing stretch ominously known as the Snake Pit. Scores are generally pretty high here– last year’s champion Taylor Moore finished the week at 10-under, and Sam Burns is the only person since 2017 to better that four-round total here (Burns won the event in both ’21 and ’22, shooting a 17-under 267 on each occasion). There’s no hiding at Copperhead: you must strike the ball well and play clean golf to have success this week.
With that in mind, here are three that may be worth a look:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Brian Harman (24.0)- At age 37, Harman has now firmly established himself as one of the best players on the PGA Tour and should be regarded as a threat to win anytime he tees it up. He’s especially dangerous on the Bermuda-covered courses of the Southeast US… courses like this week’s venue, Copperhead. He’s logged a handful of top-25s at this event over the course of his career, including a 5th-place finish in 2022, so he’s certainly proven capable of succeeding here, and after watching his Sunday charge at The Players last week there should be no questions about his current form. This will be his third straight week in competition– he finished 12th at the API and was runner-up last week, and if he keeps trending in that direction there’s only one spot left. Harman is a blue-chip option this week and is well worth a bet at better than 20/1.
Nick Taylor (40.0)- Taylor is a former top-ranked amateur who took some time to find his footing as a pro, but he’s now fully in bloom at age 35 and is off to a tremendous start this season, winning the Phoenix Open last month and cashing big checks at the Sony (T7) and the API (T12). He was sharp last week, too, finishing T26 at The Players despite a disappointing 3rd-round 76, and now he returns to a place where he has a history of success that includes three top-25s since 2015 and a T10 last year, when he shot par or better in all four rounds despite coming in off back-to-back missed cuts. He’s obviously playing much better now than he was a year ago, so I won’t be the least bit surprised to see him in contention on Sunday, making him a nice value at a price like 40.0.
Sam Ryder (120.0)- It was a slow start to the season for Ryder but the Tour’s move to his home state has done the Florida native some good, as he’s had two nice weeks with a T21 at the Cognizant and a T16 at The Players, where he shot 70 or better all four rounds on a course where disaster lurks at every turn. He now returns to another familiar Florida venue, Copperhead, where he finished T19 last year despite having struggled coming into the event. Ryder is a tremendous iron player who ranks 22nd on Tour in Proximity, so it’s no surprise that courses like the Bear Trap, TPC Stadium, and Copperhead are places where he feels comfortable and plays well. A win this week would be huge for his career, no doubt, and this is a great setup for him to break through. As triple-digit longshots go, you could do a lot worse than Ryder.
