VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP: After a successful stop in Mexico, the PGA Tour skips across the Gulf this week to sunny southwest Florida, where a 144-man field will compete for a $6.3 million purse at the Valspar Championship. Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course will once again serve as the host venue, as it has since the tournament’s inception 17 years ago, and we can only hope it provides us with yet another thrilling finish.
Last year, if you recall, Charl Schwartzel outlasted Bill Haas in a playoff, and 2015 brought us the memorable Jordan Spieth/Patrick Reed duel, with Spieth eventually prevailing after a dramatic birdie on the par-3 17th. While Spieth and some of the other big names are absent this week, Schwartzel is back to defend, and players like Justin Thomas and Henrik Stenson add some class to the proceedings.
The real star of the show, however, will be the Copperhead Course, a 7,340-yard par-71 layout that consistently ranks among the most difficult on Tour. Only once in the past five years has the champion of this event finished better than 10-under, and the cut usually hovers around even par. Despite its considerable length, the course doesn’t particularly favor bombers, as the tight fairways and abundance of doglegs often take the driver out of the players’ hands and force them to play to certain spots. The greens are smallish, hazards are plentiful, and the course is covered in Bermuda grass tee-to-green, which gives some players more issues than others. It’s a ball-strikers layout– you can’t get away with much– and it has produced some class champions over the years, with Spieth and Schwartzel joining the likes of Luke Donald, Jim Furyk, Retief Goosen, K.J. Choi, and Vijay Singh.
Speaking of class, we’ve seen an impressive run of winners on the PGA Tour lately, with Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, and Dustin Johnson (twice) all picking up victories in the past five weeks. Those guys have all decided to stay home this week, though, so it’s somebody else’s turn. Here are my thoughts on who that may be:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Ryan Moore (26.0)- Moore has been quiet in 2017 and his price is on the shorter side here, so I don’t expect him to be a popular play this week. It’s important to realize, however, that the “quietness” has mostly been due to inactivity, not poor play. Moore has only teed it up three times since his 3rd-place showing at Kapalua in January, and he’s made two cuts in those three tournaments, including a 28th-place finish in Mexico last week. You get the feeling that he’s playing himself into shape, and he seemed pretty close at Chapultepec a few days ago, hanging around on the fringes of contention before sliding back with a Sunday 73. If he’s going to break out, don’t be surprised if it comes this week, as Moore has demonstrated a mastery of the Copperhead Course, registering top-5 finishes in this tournament in each of the past two years. Last year he and Schwartzel, the eventual winner, were the only players to shoot par or better in every round, and Moore’s 13-under par total in his last eight rounds at Copperhead is unequaled. With a field that’s on the weaker side and a course that he dominates, Moore is a blue-chip option this week.
Kevin Na (58.0)- This always seems like Na’s time of year, doesn’t it? That transition from the West Coast Swing to the Florida Swing… it just seems like Na is a constant presence on leaderboards across these months. And he’s been doing his thing this year, too, following a 16th-place showing in Phoenix with a top-5 at Riviera. A lackluster performance in Mexico last week may have thrown some off the scent, but not me: Chapultepec was a weird course, the altitude was a factor, and the general unpredictability of everything (the inconsistent greens, etc.) just didn’t seem to set up well for the meticulous Na. Now, however, he returns to one of his favorite venues, the Copperhead Course, where he has made seven consecutive cuts and has found the top-10 three times. Last year was not one of those occasions, but he did finish a respectable 22nd and could have made a run had it not been for an opening-round 74. Na hasn’t won on Tour since 2011, but he has five runner-ups since then, so we know he still has it in him, and he surely has loads of confidence at Copperhead. At a price like 58.0, he may be the best value on the board.
Steve Stricker (94.0)- I know, I know… Stricker is 50 years old now and plays a greatly reduced schedule. Fair enough. But I’m telling you: don’t sleep on him this week. He played twice in February, making the cut in both Phoenix and Pebble Beach, and his Sunday 69 at Pebble snuck him into the top-25. And he showed last year that he still has plenty of life left, finishing runner-up at the St. Jude Classic and then finding the top-5 at The Open in his very next start. Moreover, he has a great history in this tournament (there’s a reason he’s teeing it up this week, you know), logging three top-10s in six career appearances, one of which came last year. Copperhead is a course that prioritizes consistency, strategic ability, and timely putting on the small, easy-to-miss greens… in other words, it sets up perfectly for Stricker. There’s no better long-odds option this week.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Henrik Stenson (1.76) vs. Justin Thomas (1.91)
Thomas has been as hot as any player in the world in 2017, adding a 5th-place finish in Mexico last week to his back-to-back wins in Hawaii. He has a good history in this event, too, finishing 10th and 18th in two career appearances. Throw in his penchant for playing his best golf on the Bermuda, and it’s clear that Thomas deserves his spot near the top of the overall market this week. Stenson is a world-class player, sure, but he’s been dealing with an assortment of injuries over the past few months and was forced to withdraw after 11 holes last week due to an unexplained illness. I’m not sure he can be relied upon this week. Recommendation: Thomas at 1.91
Byeong-Hun An (1.91) vs. Luke Donald (1.91)
This is the quintessential Course History vs. Current Form matchup. And maybe “current form” isn’t quite right, since Donald’s results over the last couple of weeks stack up pretty well next to An’s, but I do feel like An has surpassed Donald as a player over the past couple of years and would be a good heads-up bet on a week-in, week-out basis. But Donald is a past champion of this event and An will be making his debut appearance, so many might be inclined to back the Englishman this week. It’s understandable, but I’m not sure it’s the right move: Donald’s performance at Copperhead has been unremarkable over the past couple of years, and the course seems like a perfect fit for An, whose ball-striking is his greatest strength. Savvy bettors know that Donald has been mostly living on reputation in recent years and should generally be avoided in situations like this. Recommendation: An at 1.91
