WM PHOENIX OPEN: Though it’s been a fixture on the PGA Tour schedule for decades, the Phoenix Open has never taken itself too seriously, and over the last few years tournament organizers have really leaned into that reputation, playing up the rowdy, raucous par-3 16th– a stadium atmosphere where the well-lubricated galleries loudly interact with the players and generally eschew normal golf decorum– as the event’s signature experience.
Though the pandemic will certainly mute some of the fun this time around, a few thousand spectators will be allowed on the grounds, so hopefully we get something approaching normalcy. TPC Scottsdale’s Stadium Course was specifically built with galleries in mind, and given this tournament’s relationship with the fans and the local community, a quiet, sterile Phoenix Open just wouldn’t feel right. It’s high time we get back to living instead of spending all of our time worrying about not dying, anyway. But I digress…
Regardless of the galleries and extracurricular stuff, this tournament usually brings the excitement thanks to a strong field and a course that yields plenty of birdies. A par-71 that measures just under 7,300 yards, TPC Scottsdale is a “grip it and rip it” type of track that tempts the longer players to challenge fairway bunkers and the native desert vegetation. If the longer guys are swinging the driver well, this turns into a wedge-fest, so we always see lots of low numbers here, with 17-under or better winning this tournament in each of the past four years. Webb Simpson got the job done in 2020, and though he’s certainly not considered a bomber, we’ve seen the likes of Brooks Koepka, Gary Woodland, and Hideki Matsuyama win this event in recent years, so length off the tee definitely provides you with an advantage at TPC Scottsdale.
Simpson will look to defend and can currently be backed at 21.0, which puts him near the top of BETDAQ’s Win Market, right behind Jon Rahm (8.6), Rory McIlroy (12.0), Xander Schauffele (12.0), and Justin Thomas (12.5). This hasn’t been a good tournament for the longshots in recent years, as you have to go all the way back to Kevin Stadler’s victory in 2014 to find a champion who was outside the top-25 in pre-tourney betting markets, so we need to pay attention to the headliners. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Daniel Berger (24.0)- Berger had a solid year in 2020 but he must’ve found some magic with the flat stick over the fall, because his putting stats have popped off the screen in recent weeks as he’s reeled off three consecutive top-10s. Always a reliable ball-striker who is especially proficient off the tee, Berger’s newfound prowess on the greens has him making birdies in bunches, as he’s currently ranked 6th on Tour in birdie average with 4.88 per round. Given his terrific history at this event, which includes finishes of 11th or better in 3 of his past 4 appearances, he has to be licking his chops for TPC Scottsdale this week, and with a little luck he’ll have an excellent chance at picking up his 4th career PGA Tour victory. He’s worth a bet at better than 20/1.
Rickie Fowler (52.0)- It’s been a long, dark stretch for Fowler, as the former blue-chip star has sunk all the way to No. 62 in the World Golf Rankings and has only posted two top-10s in his past 22 starts. He’s beginning to show signs of life, however, and two weeks ago at The American Express he bounced back from a poor opening round to shoot 12-under over the final three days and finish T21. He’s been driving the ball extremely well, ranking 6th on Tour in total driving, and that is a key component of success at TPC Scottsdale. Of course, Fowler knows all about success in this tournament, as he’s been an absolute cash machine here through the years, reeling off four consecutive top-11 finishes– including a victory and a runner-up– from 2016-19. Given that spectacular course history and the fact that he’s currently swinging the driver so well, I think Fowler’s price here is a little bigger than it should be. Remember: he knows how to win, and he knows how to win at TPC Scottsdale. Might this be the long-awaited slump-buster? I’m willing to take my chances at a price like 52.0.
Luke List (188.0)- List is one of the longest guys on Tour, averaging a mammoth 313.8 yards per drive, and that alone gives him a leg up on much of the competition at TPC Scottsdale, as the big hitters are simply able to take some of the trouble out of play. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, then, that he’s had some nice results in this tournament, finding the top-25 in 2 of his past 3 appearances, including a T25 last year. And he’s never come into this week on the heels of two consecutive top-25s, as is currently the case, so he seems primed for success this week. List is a volatile player who makes lots of birdies– last week, for instance, he shot 77 on Friday but still snuck into the top-10 thanks to a weekend birdie barrage– so if he can avoid the major mistakes, he may find himself swimming with the big fish this week. At the very least, he’s a “live” longshot who is with a bet at the current price.
