PHOENIX OPEN: A strong field has gathered in the golfing mecca of Scottsdale for one of the most raucous events on the PGA Tour, the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Of course, the tournament’s reputation for enthusiasm is derived entirely from one hole: the par-3 16th at TPC Scottsdale’s Stadium Course, where more than 20,000 fans pack the grandstands and behave in a manner that is more befitting a NASCAR race than a golf tournament. Event organizers have really capitalized on the booze-fueled antics in recent years, successfully promoting the Phoenix Open as a more edgy, fan-friendly experience than your typical golf tournament by tying its identity up with the 16th in the same way that TPC Sawgrass is known for the famous island-green 17th.
There’s more going on here than just one par-3, though. Seven of the world’s top-25 players are in attendance, with Bubba Watson (12.0), Rickie Fowler (18.0), Brandt Snedeker (21.0), and defending champion Brooks Koepka (22.0) currently heading the market at BETDAQ. This tournament doesn’t always produce top-shelf winners, however– just in the last five years, for instance, we’ve seen the likes of Kevin Stadler, Kyle Stanley, and Mark Wilson prevail here.
TPC Scottsdale is an interesting course that presents players with several risk/reward opportunities, and though it was lengthened by more than 100 yards just over a year ago, it’s not a “bombers only” type of place where prodigious length off the tee is required to contend. It’s also a place where prior experience isn’t necessarily a prerequisite for success, as we’ve seen three players in recent years– J.B. Holmes, Stanley, and Koepka– win this tournament in their debut appearance.
Taking all that into consideration, here are this week’s selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Hideki Matsuyama (23.0)- Matsuyama hasn’t played much competitive golf over the past couple of months and his missed cut at the Farmers last week is sure to give prospective backers the jitters, but I think he’s a great value here at better than 20/1. I wouldn’t make too much of his play last week– he shot an impressive 68 in the opening round before struggling in difficult conditions on Friday. He’s one of the world’s best ball-strikers and he’s been an excellent “bounce-back” player throughout his brief career, following his three most recent missed cuts with top-15 finishes the very next week. Moreover, he seems to be built for TPC Scottsdale (or vice-versa), finishing 4th (’14) and 2nd (’15) in two career appearances at this event. He’ll be in the mix come Sunday afternoon.
Webb Simpson (54.0)- Simpson struggled with a balky putter last year but he seems to have straightened things out, opening 2016 with back-to-back top-20 finishes at the Sony and the Farmers. That means he’s surely riding high with confidence as he heads to a place where he has experienced success before– TPC Scottsdale. Though this tournament isn’t an every-year stop for Simpson, he’s placed in the top-10 in each of his past three appearances (’11, ’12, ’14) and once gave an interview to a golf magazine in which he claimed that the Phoenix Open was his favorite event on Tour. He hasn’t won in awhile, but he’s proven his mettle on the biggest of stages so if he’s in contention on Sunday he’ll be plenty comfortable. A great value at the current price…
Scott Piercy (98.0)- As previously mentioned, this isn’t the type of tournament that produces a big-name winner every year. And among the players lurking at around 100/1, one name stands out above the rest as someone whose price doesn’t quite match up with his outlook, at least in my eyes: Scott Piercy. A West Coast guy, Piercy has a great track record in this event, notching five top-15 finishes in six career appearances. And he’s been playing some very solid golf lately, finishing in the top-30 in five of his last six worldwide starts. I don’t say this often, but Piercy is grossly mispriced here and should be backed enthusiastically.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Kevin Kisner (1.91) vs. Kevin Na (1.91)
Kisner has been a veritable ATM machine over the past 18 months and has finished in the top-10 in both of his 2016 starts, but he doesn’t have a good history in this event, missing the cut and finishing T55 in two career appearances. That’s enough for me to turn to Na, a guy whose week-in, week-out consistency rivals Kisner’s and someone who seems to like the Phoenix Open, finishing 36th or better here in each of the past four years. Recommendation: Na at 1.91
David Lingmerth (1.86) vs. Gary Woodland (1.91)
Will Woodland be emotionally right after his disastrous final-round 82 last week? Golf is a funny game and the psychological aspect can never be overrated, so it’s anybody’s guess how he’ll respond. He does have a top-5 finish in this event on his resume (way back in 2011), but his record here has been spotty otherwise, including a missed cut last year. Lingmerth, meanwhile, has only played this tournament once (2014), making the cut but fading over the weekend. But he was last seen losing the CareerBuilder Challenge in a playoff, while Woodland posted that atrocious 82 a few days ago. Good enough for me. Recommendation: Lingmerth at 1.86
