WELLS FARGO: Though it doesn’t have the illustrious history of some of the PGA Tour’s older events, the Wells Fargo Championship has emerged as one of the best golf tournaments on the planet over the past two decades, consistently drawing an elite field and producing some terrific finishes and notable champions. This was true even before it became one of the Tour’s Signature Events prior to last season, but now that it’s a $20 million no-cut cash grab with elevated FedEx Cup points and a limited field, just about all of the big guns are here… though World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, the biggest gun of them all, will skip this week to be with his wife as she gives birth to the couple’s first child.
With Scheffler out of the way it’s Rory McIlroy’s turn to assume the mantle of favorite, a position he is well accustomed to at this tournament given his terrific record here which includes victories in 2010, 2015, and 2021. Rory is fresh off a triumph at the Zurich in New Orleans, where he partnered with longtime pal Shane Lowry as they laughed, smiled, and birdied their way to the trophy. He seems primed for another big week at a course he absolutely owns.
Speaking of the course, it’s one of the most popular on Tour and a big reason why this event has taken off and separated itself from some of its peers since its inception in 2003. Designed by George Cobb in the early 1960s and extensively reworked by Tom Fazio in 1997, Quail Hollow Golf Club is a course with a blend of playability, difficulty, and aesthetic beauty that makes it a perfect fit for a world-class golf tournament, which is why it was chosen to host the PGA Championship in 2017 and the Presidents Cup in 2022. Nestled in the heart of Charlotte, North Carolina, it’s 7,500 yards of rolling green hills, towering trees, lush rough, and fast, undulating bentgrass greens. It’s a ball-striker’s layout that harshly penalizes mistakes, with water hazards that come into play on several holes and a daunting three-hole finishing stretch known as the “Green Mile” which consists of a long, scary par-3 sandwiched between two difficult par-4s. You can be sure that the Green Mile will be the final resting place of many promising rounds this week. It’s a finish that’s high stress for the players and high entertainment for the fans.
Given that most of the field has experience with the course, we have plenty to chew on this week as we handicap the field. Here are three names who I think may be worth a bet:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Wyndham Clark (18.5)- Clark has emerged as one of the best players on the planet and a week-to-week force on Tour, finishing in the top-3 three times in his past eight starts, including last time out at the RBC Heritage, when he responded to a disappointing opening-round 72 with rounds of 66-66-65 to finish 3rd. He’s one of the most confident guys out there and you can be sure he’s brimming with self-belief given his current run of form, and, of course, given the fact that he WON THIS TOURNAMENT 12 MONTHS AGO, shooting 63-68 over the weekend to finish at 19-under, four shots clear of the field. It was a life-changing week for Clark and he’s kept right on rolling since then, so there’s no reason to think he’ll be slowing down now, and Quail Hollow has produced some repeat champions in its brief history, like the aforementioned McIlroy (’10, ’15, ’21) and more recently Max Homa (’19, ’22). It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Clark were to become the first to win it in back-to-back years.
Tommy Fleetwood (36.0)- It beggars belief that Fleetwood has yet to notch an official PGA Tour victory in 134 career starts, but it’s coming, you can be sure– he has 8 international wins to his credit and five runner-ups in PGA Tour events, so he’s been knocking on the door plenty and one of these days, very soon I believe, it’s going to open. It could happen this week– he’s been on a heater lately, recording three top-10s in his past six starts, including a T3 at the Masters, and he has a great history at this event which includes a T4 last year and a 14th-place finish in 2021, his last two appearances here. It really shouldn’t come as a surprise that Fleetwood likes it at Quail Hollow given his tee-to-green proficiency and with the way he’s playing right now you’d have to think he loves his chances this week. I like them too, especially at a price that’s a tier or two below the favorites.
Corey Conners (80.0)- Due to his ball-striking prowess Conners is always a threat on difficult, demanding courses, and Quail Hollow certainly fits the bill. He likes it here and usually plays well, finding the top-25 in each of the past two years and finishing T8 last year, when he broke par in all four rounds, and he’s in good form at the moment, having found the top-25 in 4 of his past 6 starts dating back to the API in March. He’s 4th on Tour in strokes gained on approach, so he’s been flushing the irons, as usual, and that should be a huge factor this week with Quail Hollow’s segmented greens and small targets. Conners is a live one this week and is certainly worth a bet at a price like 80.0.
