WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP: A strong field has gathered in south Charlotte this week for the Wells Fargo Championship, an event that has steadily grown in prestige over its 13 years of existence. Rory McIlroy triumphed last year and is back to defend his title, but he’ll have to best the likes of Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson, Justin Rose, and Hideki Matsuyama if he wants to become this tournament’s first 3-time champion.

McIlroy is a great player, maybe the best in the world, but his price this week (5.3) should scare off all but his most stubborn partisans. What we’re looking for, though, is someone with a McIlroy-like skill-set (a big ask, I know): a player who hits it both long and high and can really get it done with his irons. Quail Hollow, this week’s venue, measures over 7,500 yards and has always favored longer players, but the advantage has been accentuated over the past couple of years after several dozen trees were removed, which greatly diminished the importance of accuracy off the tee (2014 winner J.B Holmes ranked outside the top-50 in Driving Accuracy, for instance). This is a bomber’s week, so plan accordingly.

One more thing: over the years this tournament has been an especially crazy one to bet in-play, and this can be wholly attributed to the three finishing holes at Quail Hollow, a brutal stretch of golf known as the Green Mile. Just know that when a player walks off the 15th green, his round is far from finished. Don’t say I didn’t warn you…

Here are this week’s selections:

WIN MARKET

Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)

Hideki Matsuyama (25.0)- Matsuyama has been quietly heating up over the past few weeks, netting top-10s in each of his last two stroke-play starts and finishing in the top-20 in five of his last seven events overall. He’s an elite ball-striker whose game is seemingly a perfect fit for Quail Hollow, and indeed his results in this tournament have improved from year-to-year, as he followed up a T38 in 2014 with a T20 last year. He last tasted victory in February’s Phoenix Open, so it hasn’t been that long, and we know he can be trusted around the lead, as he’s repeatedly contended in the world’s biggest tournaments. Really like Matsuyama at 25.0 this week.

Kevin Chappell (46.0)- Chappell has never won on the PGA Tour, so backing him this week has obvious risks. That being said, he’s playing great golf at the moment, finishing in the top-10 in three of his past four starts, and he has a solid record in this tournament, making the cut in four of his five career appearances and finding the top-20 in each of the past two years. So if you’re looking for someone who’s playing well right now and also has a nice history at Quail Hollow (and is priced at nearly 50/1…), Chappell’s your man.

Tony Finau (66.0)- There’s a lot to like about Finau this week: for one, he’s among the longest guys on the PGA Tour, which will help him greatly at Quail Hollow. We saw that last year, when he finished 16th despite struggling a bit on the greens. He should be more prepared this time around, as he won the Puerto Rico Open just three starts ago and opened with a 67 at the RBC Heritage, so his game is in good shape and he shouldn’t be intimidated if he’s around the lead on Sunday. At a price like 66.0, Finau is one of the best values on the board this week.

TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS

Patrick Reed (1.91) vs. Phil Mickelson (1.91)

Reed is playing very well at the moment, finishing second at the Valero Texas Open two weeks ago and notching four top-10s in his last five starts. He doesn’t have a great record at Quail Hollow, though, and Mickelson has been stellar in this event, making the cut in all eleven of his career appearances and finishing in the top-5 an astounding five times. Recommendation: Mickelson at 1.91

Adam Scott (1.91) vs. Henrik Stenson (1.91)

Henrik Stenson does not have a great record in this tournament, there’s no denying it. That being said, he’s been playing some phenomenal golf in recent weeks, finishing 11th or better in four of his last six starts and no worse than 28th in the other two. Adam Scott has also struggled at Quail Hollow these past few years, missing three consecutive cuts here, and his game has cooled off considerably since his win at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. Recommendation: Stenson at 1.91