WYNDHAM CHAMPIONSHIP: After an entertaining week at Harding Park the PGA Tour now treks back east for the old Greensboro tournament, an event that dates back to 1938 and has been known as the Wyndham Championship for the past 14 years.
Several of the big-name guys have opted to sit this one out in preparation for the FedExCup Playoffs, which begin with next week’s Northern Trust, but others have decided that competition is the best preparation, so the field is not entirely bereft of headliners. But the players with the most at stake this week are the ones hovering around the 125 mark in the FedExCup standings, as those outside that number come Sunday will have to watch the Playoffs on television like the rest of us. So even though this tournament might feel insignificant compared to the two events it’s sandwiched between, there’s still lots to play for, and we’ve seen some exciting finishes here over the years, with 5 of the last 7 champions either prevailing by a single stroke or in a playoff.
Sedgefield Country Club, an old Donald Ross design that was renovated and modernized in the early 2000s, will serve as the host course for the 13th consecutive year, and if the past few stagings are any indication, we can expect loads of red numbers this week. Sedgefield is a shortish par-70 layout that isn’t terribly penal off the tee, save for the sticky Bermuda rough that lines the course. For players who can avoid the rough it’s pretty much target practice with wedges and short irons, and though the green complexes do have some Ross-inspired trickiness and subtlety, they aren’t able to provide a stern enough defense against the world’s best players. JT Poston closed with a 62 to shoot 22-under last year and edge out Webb Simpson by a shot, making it four straight years that the winner here has finished at 21-under or better. Brandt Snedeker fired a 59 en route to his 2018 victory, and 2017 champ Henrik Stenson opened with a 62 and closed with a 64 yet still only prevailed by the slimmest of margins. So, you get the idea: it’s going to be a pin-the-ears-back birdie fest. Plan accordingly.
BETDAQ’s Win Market is a bit sparse at the top, with Simpson, who has a terrific record in this event, sitting at 11.5, followed by the likes of Brooks Koepka (14.5), Patrick Reed (17.5), and Tommy Fleetwood (21.0). But there’s a huge glut of names priced between 25.0-75.0, and methinks therein lies the value. DJ nearly did it for us last week, taking the lead into the final round before pulling his latest Greg Norman act, and I’ve got a feeling we may get some Sunday excitement once again. Here are the three I’ve settled on:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Harris English (28.0)- This has been far and away the most consistent season of English’s career, as he’s made 14 cuts in 16 starts and has found the top-25 11 times, with five top-10s. Long known as a fairways-and-greens type– and for good reason, given he currently ranks 19th on Tour in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green– his putter has come alive this year, and especially lately, as he ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained Putting over the past 24 rounds (h/t Fantasy National). He played well at Harding Park last week, closing with 69-66 to finish T19, giving him his fourth consecutive top-20 and seventh in his last eight starts. Not surprisingly for a Southerner who grew up on Bermuda grass, it has always been his best surface, and the Bermuda-covered Sedgefield has been a comfortable spot for English throughout his career, as he’s made the cut in all six of his appearances in this event and has finished 11th or better twice, most recently in 2018. All things considered, there’s a lot to like about English in this spot and I’m happy to take a chance on him at better than 25/1.
Henrik Norlander (66.0)- Norlander has quietly put together a big season and has been playing especially well of late, with three top-25s in his last four starts, including a T6 in a great field at the Memorial. Though he hails from Sweden, he played four years of collegiate golf in north Georgia, so he has lots of experience on Bermuda, and indeed the stats say that it’s his best putting surface. Norlander’s strengths are finding fairways– he ranks 10th on Tour in driving accuracy– and iron play, so his game should fit Sedgefield nicely. This was borne out in 2013, when he finished T13 here in what was otherwise a very tough season. He’s only been back once since then, and he’s never been playing as well as he is right now, so it feels like a big week is very much within the realm of possibility. He’s a bit of a dark horse, but at 66.0 I believe the value is there.
Bud Cauley (94.0)- Though Cauley doesn’t hit the ball far enough to contend on a week-in, week-out basis, he can be dangerous on courses that suit his game nicely, and Sedgefield, with its modest length, Bermuda turf, and emphasis on wedge play, is a quintessential Cauley track. He’s has some good finishes in this event over the years, finding the top-25 three times in seven career appearances, including a T22 last year, and he nearly won back in 2012, finishing 3rd. He opened with a 66 at Harding Park last week before going on to finish 37th, and he’s made 9 of his last 13 cuts with a pair of top-10s, so his game is sharp enough, anyway. Cauley is the type who reels off birdies in bunches when he gets hot, and he’s logged six rounds of 66 or lower at Sedgefield, so he’s a viable threat this week and a nice value at a price like 94.0.
