WYNDHAM CHAMPIONSHIP: It’s a sprint to the finish this week in Greensboro, as players who are on the bubble will be striving to squeeze inside the top 125 and qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs, which begin with next week’s Northern Trust.
The Greensboro stop is one of the oldest on the PGA Tour, dating back to the 1930s, and this tournament was known as the Greater Greensboro Open for most of its existence, with Wyndham taking over title sponsorship in 2007. The host course, Sedgefield Country Club, is an old Donald Ross design that was renovated in 2008 and has been the permanent home of this event ever since, so lack of course familiarity will not be an issue for the majority of the field this week.
Sedgefield is a shortish par-70 layout that isn’t terribly penal off the tee, though the sticky Bermuda rough must be avoided if the players hope to keep pace in what is always a green-light birdie fest. If you put it in the fairway it’s pretty much target practice with wedges and short irons, and though the green complexes do have some Ross-inspired trickiness and subtlety, they aren’t able to provide a stern enough defense against the world’s best players. The winner of this tournament has posted 20-under or better in each of the past five years, with Jim Herman getting the job done last year at 21-under 259, a shot clear of Billy Horschel. It’s worth mentioning that we’ve seen some exciting finishes at Sedgefield, with 6 of the past 8 champions either prevailing by a single stroke or in a playoff. There are plenty of birdies to go around and the leaderboard is always crowded. Makes for a fun week…
Though most of the big names have decided to rest this week in preparation for the Playoffs, there’s still some top shelf talent teeing it up, with course specialist Webb Simpson (12.5), Masters champ Hideki Matsuyama (13.0), and the red-hot Louis Oosthuizen (16.5) heading BETDAQ’s Win Market. But the real drama, big-picture wise, will involve those players hovering around the 125 spot looking to extend their seasons and lock up status for next year. There’s always several “games within the game” in a Tour event, and that’s especially true this week, so it might be worth taking a shot on some longer-odds guys who really need a big week… assuming they’re on the right side of the shine/shrink pressure dynamic, of course. Remember- the last two champions here, and four of the past six, have been bona fide triple-digit longshots. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Jason Kokrak (19.0)- While the price here might be a little hard to swallow– despite winning twice this season, Kokrak is seldom in the 20/1-or-shorter range– there’s good reason behind it, as the big-hitting Ohioan is undoubtedly a blue chip option this week. Not only has he developed a taste for victory lately, but he’s been able to put himself in the mix more often than not, finding the top-15 in 6 of his past 11 starts. Most importantly, he has a great record in this tournament, finishing 16th or better here in 3 of his past 4 appearances, including a T6 in 2019 and a T15 last year. Sedgefield is not known as a bomber’s paradise, but don’t tell Kokrak that… it seems to suit his game just fine. It would be a fitting bow on a career season if he were to triumph this week.
Seamus Power (74.0)- It was already a breakthrough season for Power before his victory at the Barbasol Championship last month, as he rode into that tournament on a streak of five consecutive top-20 finishes, including three top-10s. This will be his first time teeing it up since the Barbasol, which could be looked at two ways– maybe he’ll be a little rusty, or maybe he’ll continue on playing the best golf of his career, which is exactly what he was doing when we last saw him. His putting stats are better on Bermuda than any other surface, and he’s an excellent ball-striker, ranking 19th on Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green, so he should have all the ingredients to go low at Sedgefield. His results have steadily improved in this tournament and he played well last year, breaking 70 in all four rounds to tie for 27th. He’s a live one this week and a nice value at a price like 74.0.
Patton Kizzire (104.0)- Though he’s yet to win this season, Kizzire has posted some good results, finding the top-25 in 4 of his past 8 starts, with two of those being 3rd-place finishes. An Alabama native, he’s always done his best work on Bermuda-covered courses, and he’s a birdie-making machine, ranking 14th on Tour in birdie average, so he has the firepower to keep up when the red numbers are flying around. His record in this tournament is solid, with two top-25s and zero missed cuts in four career appearances, including a T13 in 2019, and he’s been brilliant on the greens lately, rocketing up the putting stats over the past few weeks. Kizzire has shown the ability to close the deal when in contention, winning twice on the PGA Tour, and he’s a plus-option in both the recent form and course history columns this week. At better than 100/1, he might be the best value on the board.
