The PGA Tour rolls into the Big Easy this week for the Zurich Classic, which is being held at TPC Louisiana for the ninth consecutive year. The field features five of the world’s top 20 players, led by the likes of Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, and Justin Rose. Johnson is listed as the favorite at BETDAQ and can currently be backed at 9.6.
This event has developed a reputation for producing first-time winners, as Seung-Yul Noh’s victory in 2014 marked the third straight year a first-time champion was crowned here, and it’s happened 20 times over the history of the PGA Tour’s stop in New Orleans (previously the New Orleans Open and the *fill in the blank with a sponsor* Classic). It’s hard to say why this tends to be the case, especially since the tournament is held at the same course every year (9 years at TPC Louisiana, 14 years at English Turn, 16 years at Lakewood Country Club). Could be that Cajun voodoo… something that every gambler should respect.
We could’ve used some voodoo of our own last Sunday, as Matt Kuchar, who we had recommended (and backed) at 24/1 on Wednesday, was battling atop the leaderboard at the RBC Heitage. Kuchar came up just short, finishing fifth, so hopefully those who followed us in were able to trade out at just the right time (like Friday afternoon, for instance, when he was trading at 5.3).
The Zurich Classic has been unpredictable in the past, so if you’ve got a sneaky feeling about any longshots it may be the right time to throw a couple of bucks at ’em. I’ll take my chances with these three:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Harris English (28)– English narrowly missed qualifying for The Masters, needing to play just a bit better throughout February and March to sneak into the top-50 of the world rankings, which would have put him in the field. I’m sure watching the tournament on television was bitterly disappointing, and I’m betting that English hits the ground running this week with the sort of pressure-free determination that makes professional golfers dangerous. And it’s not like he’s been struggling over the past couple of months, with five of his last six starts resulting in top-30 finishes, including a near-victory at the Farmers Insurance Open in February, where he lost in a playoff to Jason Day. Plus, he’s shown that he feels comfortable at TPC Louisiana, finishing 6th here in his last appearance (2013). Don’t be surprised if he gets the job done this week.
Morgan Hoffmann (50)- The young Hoffmann is still looking for his first win on the PGA Tour, but based on the way he’s been playing lately he may not have to wait much longer. We’re in the midst of the best stretch of golf of Hoffmann’s career– 17th at the WGC-Cadillac Championship, 4th at Bay Hill, 28th at The Masters, and 9th at The Heritage last week. He’s played this event in each of the past two years, making the cut both times and breaking par in six of his eight rounds, so he knows his way around the golf course. And, of course, there’s the aforementioned history of first-time winners at this tournament, a trend that becomes harder to ignore every year. All things considered, Hoffmann’s a great value at the current price.
Scott Piercy (78)- Piercy has quietly been playing some good golf lately, making four of his past five cuts and finishing 10th in his last event, the Shell Houston Open. He’s played well at this tournament before, finishing 13th here back in 2012, and has two career PGA Tour wins, so he’ll know what to do if he’s in contention on Sunday. Additionally, we have an inside source (seriously) who says that Piercy is hitting the ball better than he has in his entire life. We’ve all been told things like that before and frequently they don’t amount to much, but his play has been on an upward swing over the past six weeks, there’s no denying that. I’ll take my chances with a small bet at better than 70/1.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Brendan Steele (1.91) vs. Justin Thomas (1.91)
Steele has played well this year and he’s much more experienced than Thomas, but Thomas appeared to draw some inspiration from good friend Jordan Spieth’s Masters win, as he finished 11th at the Heritage last week, breaking par in all four rounds. TPC Louisiana should be ideally suited for Thomas’s game and I would’ve backed him in the Win Market had the odds been a little longer, but I’ll settle for a play on him here. Recommendation: Thomas at 1.91
Nick Watney (1.91) vs. John Peterson (1.91)
There’s a lot to like about John Peterson heading into this week– he’s recorded top-20 finishes in each of his last two events, he’s made 13 of his past 14 cuts on the PGA Tour, and he’s a Louisiana boy (graduate of nearby LSU) who has played dozens, if not hundreds, of rounds at TPC Louisiana. Watney is the more established player and he won here back in 2007, but he’s missed the cut twice since then and finished an uninspiring 75th last year. Recommendation: Peterson at 1.91
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