ZURICH CLASSIC: The tournament now known as the Zurich Classic has been a regular stop on the PGA Tour for over 50 years, but this edition feels like a new beginning, as the traditional stroke-play format has been scrapped in favor of a 2-man team event.
While it remains to be seen whether this radical departure from Tour norms will be a success in the long run, it has certainly improved the quality of the field this year, with several big names who normally skip this tournament deciding to tee it up. Jordan Spieth is here, as are Justin Rose and Henrik Stenson, who will play together, and Jason Day and Rickie Fowler, who have also teamed up. There are some other interesting pairings– Brooks Koepka is playing with his brother Chase, who doesn’t have status on any U.S.-based tour; Thomas Pieters is playing with Daniel Berger, a potential future Ryder Cup rival; Bubba Watson and J.B. Holmes will combine to form possibly the longest 2-man team in golf history; and Justin Thomas and Bud Cauley are just one of several sets of former college teammates who have reunited for the week.
There are 80 teams in all, with the field being cut to the low 35 and ties after Friday. The format will be alternate shot on Thursday and Saturday, and “best ball” (four-ball) on Friday and Sunday. TPC Louisiana will serve as the host venue for the 12th time in the last 13 years; it’s a Pete Dye design that is friendly off the tee and straightforward around the greens, which means the players usually eat it alive. It has taken 19-under par or better to win this tournament in 4 of the past 5 stagings, so you can only imagine the ridiculous numbers that are going to be posted on Friday and Sunday– the “best ball” days.
All of the change and newness may add some intrigue, but this week has suddenly become awfully tricky for bettors. We simply don’t see much team golf at the professional level, so it’s anybody’s guess how some of these partnerships will work out. Because of this uncertainty, I think it’s wise to steer clear of the top of the market this week, and I wouldn’t be opposed to spreading out your bets among a few genuine longshots. The “anything can happen” dynamic is stronger than usual, I believe. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Byeong Hun An/Seung-yul Noh (46.0)- The two Koreans are flying under the radar this week, as Noh hasn’t made any noise since the West Coast Swing and An, despite making all 10 of his cuts this season and turning in a solid performance at the Masters, hasn’t really contended since his T6 in Phoenix. Sleep on this team at your own peril, though– you’d be hard pressed to find a pair of players who have experienced more recent success at TPC Louisiana. Noh picked up his one and only PGA Tour win at this event back in 2014, and he found the top-20 last year. An, for his part, nearly captured the trophy last year, closing with a 65 to sneak into a 3-way playoff that Brian Stuard would eventually win. It still stands as An’s best performance in 30 career PGA Tour starts. In an unpredictable week that will be a feeling-out process for everybody, there’s a lot to like about a couple of young guys who are both returning to a site where they’ve experienced more success than anywhere else.
Jason Dufner/Patton Kizzire (60.0)- Dufner hasn’t been the same since his gorgeous young wife decided to take a ride on the Tiger Woods Experience (*cough* allegedly *cough*), but he’s been playing very well of late, registering top-15 finishes in four of his past six starts. He’s also a former champion of this event, having won back in 2012, so there are no doubts about his ability to succeed at TPC Louisiana. He’d probably be a good bet if this were a traditional stroke-play tournament, but I also have a good feeling about his partner, Kizzire, a young Alabama native and Auburn grad (like Dufner) who plays his best golf on the Bermuda-covered courses of the Southeast. He’s coming off a solid week at the RBC Heritage, where he shot 66 in the second round and finished 32nd, and he really played well in this tournament last year, finishing 8th and earning his second-largest paycheck as a professional. At a price like 60.0, this team might be my favorite bet on the board.
Steve Stricker/Jerry Kelly (130.0)- The oldest team in the field should not be taken lightly, as both Kelly and Stricker have produced some good results lately, though it should be noted that Kelly’s recent success has come on the Champions Tour. Sticker has dabbled in some senior golf as well, picking up top-3 finishes in both of his Champions Tour starts this season, but he was last seen battling it out with the young guys at the Masters, where he finished a very respectable 16th. Bottom line: Stricker is still a top-notch player. He doesn’t play much anymore, but when he does play, he’s a threat. Last year, if you recall, he finished runner-up at the St. Jude Classic and 4th at the Open. And while Kelly may not be able to match those recent accolades, he did win this tournament back in 2009, so he obviously knows his way around TPC Louisiana. Plus, these guys have experienced success playing together before, winning the 2009 Franklin Templeton Shootout, one of the few team events in pro golf. They have a better chance this week than their price would indicate.
