Philadelphia Eagles (9-6, 8-7 ATS) @ New York Giants (6-9, 7-8 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New York -3 (53)
Significant Injuries
Philadelphia: QB Nick Foles (out– collarbone), LB Trent Cole (out– hand)
New York: LB Devon Kennard (questionable– toe), RB Rashad Jennings (questionable– ankle), LB Jacquain Williams (out– concussion)
Recent Trends
Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss
Philadelphia is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these 2 teams
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. NFC opponents
New York is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win
New York is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
New York is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 4-0 in Philadelphia’s last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 11-5 in Philadelphia’s last 16 road games
The OVER is 4-1 in New York’s last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Philadelphia
1. Any anti-Eagles argument here really must rely on things that are unknowable and perhaps fictitious– “motivation”, “momentum” and the like. The cold-hard facts are this: the Eagles are 9-6 while the Giants are 6-9, the Eagles average 29.3 points per game while the Giants average 23.6, the Eagles rank 25th in total defense while the Giants rank 28th, and when these teams met back in Week 6 the result was self-evident: Philadelphia 27, New York 0. The wrong team is favored here.
2. Chip Kelly’s up-tempo, high-scoring attack has taken the NFL by storm over the past couple of years, and this season’s edition ranks 3rd in the league in points scored despite losing their starting quarterback to a midseason injury. This week they’ll be facing a dreadful New York defense that ranks 28th in yards allowed and 30th against the run. The last time these teams met Eagles tailback LeSean McCoy ran for 149 yards on just 22 carries, and there’s no reason to think he can’t duplicate that performance on Sunday.
3. All six of New York’s wins this season have come against teams that currently have losing records, so there’s simply no solid evidence to suggest that they can hang with a team of Philadelphia’s caliber. They’ve had several opportunities to produce a quality win and they’ve failed to do so, losing to Detroit by 21, Arizona by 11, Dallas by 10, Indianapolis by 16, Seattle by 21, and, of course, Philadelphia by 27.
Three reasons to back New York
1. These are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Eagles have lost 3 straight, including a ghastly loss to the lowly Washington Redskins last week that eliminated them from playoff contention. The Giants, meanwhile, are coming off 3 consecutive double-digit wins and are clearly playing their best football of the season. New York is “just” a 3-point favorite here because of the way these teams played over the first 3 months of the season, when the Giants couldn’t buy a win and the Eagles resembled a Super Bowl contender. This is the NFL, though, and a lot can change in a few weeks. Sharp bettors will see this for what it is: an opportunity to back the better team, playing at home, as a very reasonable 3-point favorite.
2. First-year coordinator Ben McAdoo installed an entirely new offense in New York, and over the first half of the season the unit sputtered as the losses piled up. Things started clicking in mid-November, though, and over the last 5 weeks the Giants have averaged 29.3 points per game. This week they’ll be facing an Eagles defense that ranks 25th in yards allowed and has surrendered 24 points or more in 5 of their past 6 games, so anything less than a 30-point output from the New York offense would have to be considered a disappointment.
3. The Eagles have a bad defense, that’s no secret. It’s been their once-feared offense, though, that has let them down in recent weeks. The Mark Sanchez-led unit has failed to top 27 points in three consecutive games for the first time all season, and, not coincidentally, the Eagles lost all 3 games. Sanchez looks very much like the guy that was ridiculed in New York before being run out of town, while his counterpart in Sunday’s game, Eli Manning, has been slicing up defenses with ease over the past month. A Giants bet is the only sensible play here.
Prediction
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