Philadelphia Eagles (3-0, 2-1 ATS) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-2, 1-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: San Francisco -5 (50.5)
Significant Injuries
Philadelphia: WR Josh Huff (questionable– shoulder), LB Mychal Kendricks (out– calf), C Jason Kelce (out– hernia)
San Francisco: S Antoine Bethea (questionable– ankle), CB Tramaine Brock (questionable– toe), OT Anthony Davis (questionable– hamstring), TE Vernon Davis (questionable– ankle), TE Vance McDonald (questionable– knee), C Marcus Martin (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. NFC opponents
San Francisco is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 8-2 in Philadelphia’s last 10 road games
The UNDER is 5-1 in San Francisco’s last 6 games overall
The OVER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Philadelphia
1. The Eagles have an explosive offense that averages 33.7 points per game and San Francisco has underperformed on defense this season, surrendering 51 combined points in their last two games.
2. Philadelphia clearly has the better quarterback in this matchup, as Nick Foles is blossoming into a star while Colin Kaepernick would be headed for the bench if the Niners had any other viable options at the position. Kaepernick’s careless play and suspect accuracy has really hurt the team this season, particularly in Week 2, when he single-handedly gave away a game against Chicago.
3. The Niners are simply overvalued– they’re an average team that is still treated like they’re elite by the betting public. They’ve allowed more points than they’ve scored this season, a hallmark of mediocre teams, and they’ve been outscored 52-3 in the second halves of their games.
Three reasons to back San Francisco
1. The Niners are a good situational play here– they’re a veteran team in a desperate situation, they’re playing at home, and their opponent has to travel cross-country after back-to-back close, draining wins. They’ve also been a great “bounce-back” team under Jim Harbaugh, going 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss.
2. The Philadelphia defense has been terrible this season, ranking 26th in yards allowed and surrendering 26 points per game. Last week they eked out a win over a bad Washington team that was starting a backup quarterback, and in Week 1 they fell behind 17-0 to Jacksonville, the NFL’s worst team. The more wee see the Eagles the more cracks seem to develop, and this week, on the road in San Francisco, the dam is likely to burst.
3. Increasingly, we’re seeing NFL defenses figure out Chip Kelly’s spread offense. Philadelphia was shut out for a half by Jacksonville in Week 1 and they were shut down for 3 quarters by Indianapolis in Week 2, their vulnerabilities exposed for the world to see. San Francisco ranks 5th in total defense; they’ll be the best D the Eagles have seen this season, far and away. Don’t be surprised if the Niners overwhelm the Philly offense on Sunday.
Prediction
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