Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2, 1-3 ATS) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4, 0-4 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Pittsburgh -6 (47)
Significant Injuries
Pittsburgh: LB Ryan Shazier (questionable– knee), G Ramon Foster (questionable– ankle), CB Ike Taylor (out– forearm)
Jacksonville: OT Austin Pasztor (questionable– hand), WR Marquise Lee (questionable– hamstring), WR Cecil Shorts (questionable– hamstring), CB Dwayne Gratz (questionable– head)
Recent Trends
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
Pittsburgh is 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing record
Jacksonville is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams
Jacksonville is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss
Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. AFC opponents
The underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 7-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 9 games overall
The OVER is 5-1 in Jacksonville’s last 6 home games
The OVER is 7-1 in Jacksonville’s last 8 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game
Three reasons to back Pittsburgh
1. The Steelers rank 5th in the NFL in total offense and have combined for 61 points in their past two games. They’re loaded with elite talent– tailback Le’Veon Bell ranks 2nd in the league in rushing, wideout Antonio Brown ranks 4th in receiving yards, and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger ranks 7th in passing yards.
2. Jacksonville may have the worst defense in the history of the NFL, and that’s not an exaggeration: the Jags have surrendered more points (152) over their first four games than any team over the first four games of any season since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. Their offense, which is comparatively “better” despite ranking 31st in points scored, will feature 6 rookie starters this week.
3. The Jags are impossibly bad. They average just 14.5 points per game and surrender 38, they’re last in the league in point differential by a wide margin, and they’ve covered just 6 times in their last 25 games despite being underdogs every time. The fact that Pittsburgh lost to a terrible Tampa team last week is a godsend for bettors, as it has kept the line in this game at a very reasonable 6. The Steelers should be backed without hesitation at that number.
Three reasons to back Jacksonville
1. Pittsburgh just lost– at home, no less– to the winless Tampa Bay Bucs, a team that was coming off a 42-point loss to Atlanta in Week 3. They have no business being a 6-point favorite over anyone right now, especially on the road, where they’ve covered just 6 times in their last 26 games against teams with losing records.
2. The Jacksonville offense showed some life last week in rookie quarterback Blake Bortles’ first career start, and on Sunday Bortles will be facing a Pittsburgh defense that has surrendered 26 points or more in three of their four games this season.
3. The Steelers have historically been a bad bet in situations like this, covering just 6 times in their last 26 road games against teams with losing records. Plus, they’ve been overvalued this season, covering just once in 4 opportunities. Sharp bettors know not to trust this team.
Prediction
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