PREMIER LEAGUE NEW YEAR’S DAY: We preview Wednesday’s Premier League action with recommended BETDAQ bets and extended match stats. The action includes ARSENAL v MAN U at 8pm.
BRIGHTON V CHELSEA
12.30pm The Premier League games just keep on coming! It’s been a hectic Christmas and New Year for the Premier League sides and we have nine fixtures today. We have an excellent day ahead with the fixtures spread out evenly and we kick things off with Brighton hosting Chelsea. Frank Lampard’s men were 1-0 down away to Arsenal on Sunday afternoon but turned things around to win in the final ten minutes. Perhaps it was Arsenal being Arsenal; but after losing to Southampton prior to that it was a welcome boost. Brighton would have been delighted with three points here against Bournemouth because they were going through a little bit of a poor run. We’ll need to see more improvement from Brighton to consider backing them and Chelsea have an excellent record against Brighton – winning all nine Premier League meetings. We happy to start the day with a Chelsea win at odds against – they can outclass this Brighton side.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Chelsea to beat Brighton at 2.04.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbriche
MATCH STATS
- Brighton’s only victory in any competition against Chelsea came in the FA Cup in January 1933 (2-1) – since then they’ve drawn one and lost 11 of their 12 meetings.
- Chelsea have won all nine of their league meetings with Brighton – the best such 100% record in English football league history.
- Brighton have only lost their first league game of a calendar year in one of the last 10 years (W6 D3), going down 0-1 at home to Wolves on New Year’s Day in 2016.
- This is Chelsea’s first Premier League game on New Year’s Day since 2015, when they lost 3-5 at Tottenham under José Mourinho. Indeed, the Blues have only won their first league game of a calendar year once in the last five years (D2 L2 – 3-0 vs Crystal Palace in 2016).
- 1st January 2020 marks exactly 10,000 days since the start of the Premier League (15th August 1992). 49 clubs have played in the competition, with Chelsea one of just six to have played in every single season since its inception (Arsenal, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur).
- Brighton have won just one of their 17 Premier League games against sides starting the day in the top four of the table (D2 L14), losing each of their last 11 in a row since beating Man Utd 1-0 in May 2018.
- Chelsea have won seven of their last nine away Premier League games (L2) – only Liverpool (25) have more away points than the Blues this season (21).
- Brighton have never won a Premier League match in January in eight attempts (D3 L5) – there are only two instances of teams playing more in a month without winning; Brighton themselves in April (10) and Hull City in May (16).
- Brighton midfielder Aaron Mooy scored his first Premier League goal since April in their 2-0 win over Bournemouth, ending a run of 17 games and 17 shots without a goal; the Australian also created five chances in the match, more than any other player.
- Tammy Abraham’s 12 Premier League goals have been worth 12 points to Chelsea so far this season – no other players goals have been more valuable to their side (level with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Sadio Mané).
BURNLEY V ASTON VILLA
12.30pm Burnley against Aston Villa is the other early kick off today and this is a big game for both sides. Burnley are just on the edge of being dragged towards the bottom of the table, although having said that they are level on points with Arsenal and sitting in 13th! They are only six points ahead of Aston Villa in the relegation zone though, and a poor run would easily put them in trouble. Villa lost a really big game with Watford at the weekend, but they did manage to beat Norwich prior to that. Norwich look like they’re going down but with Watford right back in it now – the pressure is really on Villa. Burnley have been reasonably solid this season and have grinded out points. Villa are relying on their home form and with Burnley a tough side to beat at home, we can only see one way traffic here. Villa concede too many goals away from home and Burnley look good value at 1.88.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Burnley to beat Aston Villa at 1.88.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQburast
MATCH STATS
- Burnley have lost just one of their last 11 league meetings with Aston Villa (W5 D5), losing 2-5 at Villa Park in February 2010.
- Aston Villa haven’t won any of their last 14 away games against Burnley in all competitions (D6 L8) since a 2-0 victory in the FA Cup in March 1959.
- This is Burnley’s third Premier League game on New Year’s Day, with the Clarets drawing 3-3 with Newcastle in 2015 and losing 1-2 against Liverpool in 2018.
- Aston Villa haven’t lost any of their last nine league games on New Year’s Day (W5 D4), since a 0-1 loss at Chelsea in 2001.
- Burnley have drawn only one of their last 25 home Premier League games (W11 L13), with none of their last 17 games at Turf Moor ending level.
- Aston Villa have picked up just seven points from their last 28 away Premier League matches (W1 D4 L23), with five different managers overseeing matches in that time (Sherwood, MacDonald, Garde, Black and Smith).
- Burnley have lost just one of their last 18 Premier League matches against teams starting the day in the relegation zone (W9 D8), a 2-4 defeat at Fulham in August 2018.
- Aston Villa manager Dean Smith has won just four points in his first 10 away Premier League matches (W1 D1 L8) – the last manager to win fewer in his first 10 away games was Rémi Garde, who also did so with Aston Villa in March 2016 (three points).
- Only Arsenal (7) have scored more Premier League goals from corners than Burnley (6), with Aston Villa conceding the most goals from such situations so far this term (8).
- Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish has been directly involved in more Premier League goals than any other English midfielder this season (5 goals, 5 assists).
NEWCASTLE V LEICESTER
3pm Leicester made a whopping nine changes at the weekend against West Ham but they still came away with three points. Brendan Rodgers will be delighted, and now he has a fresh side for today. They may have been outclassed by City and Liverpool over Christmas, but a Top Four spot would be a fantastic result for Leicester and they need to focus on that. Leicester 5-0 win over Newcastle was somewhat of a turning point for them earlier in the season – Newcastle were in the bottom three at the time and they’ve really performed well since. They are just outside the top ten now, and should give Leicester a tough day at the office. We feel that Leicester, for all that they have been outstanding this season, look too short here at 1.64. Newcastle is a tough place to go and win at and the home side have had some very good results this season. We feel Leicester should be at least ten ticks higher and we’re happy to lay the 1.64. It looks the best value lay of the day.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Leicester at 1.64.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnewlei
MATCH STATS
- Newcastle have lost their last three Premier League home games against Leicester, as many as they had in their previous 22 against the Foxes at St James’ Park in the top-flight
(W13 D6 L3). - Leicester won the reverse fixture against Newcastle 5-0, their joint-biggest margin of victory against the Magpies in the top-flight (also 6-1 in January 1930). The only previous Premier League season that Leicester did the double over Newcastle was their title winning campaign of 2015-16.
- Newcastle have won their first league game of a calendar year in just one of the last seven years (D1 L5), beating Stoke 1-0 on New Year’s Day in 2018.
- Leicester haven’t lost their first league game of a calendar year since 2008 (1-3 vs QPR in the Championship), winning seven and drawing four since then. The Foxes have also won five of their last six league games on New Year’s Day (D1).
- Newcastle United haven’t lost three Premier League games in a row since October 2018 under Rafael Benitez.
- Leicester have won 42 points from their opening 20 Premier League games this season (W13 D3 L4) – two more than they had after 20 games in 2015-16, when they won the league.
- Newcastle have faced 22 shots in each of their last two Premier League games – in their first 18 matches, they were facing 15 shots per game on average.
- 10 of Newcastle’s 20 Premier League goals this season have been scored by defenders (50%) – both a league-high total and ratio so far in 2019-20.
- Excluding own goals, only Liverpool (16) have had more different goalscorers than Leicester in the Premier League this season, with Demarai Gray the 12th player to net for the Foxes in their 2-1 win at West Ham last time out.
- Leicester striker Kelechi Iheanacho has been involved in five goals in his last four Premier League appearances (3 goals, 2 assists). Only 31 of the Nigerian’s 101 top-flight appearances have been starts, but he has scored 12 goals and assisted seven more in those matches.
SOUTHAMPTON V TOTTENHAM
3pm Both these sides had to settle for a draw at the weekend, but it would have been Spurs who were gutted. Jose Mourinho’s men could only manage a 2-2 draw with Norwich who sit bottom of the table, and it just goes to show that Spurs continue to have massive problems at the back. Perhaps we will see Jose bring in players in January; however that hasn’t been the style of this club in the past. It’s surprising that Jose hasn’t had some impact on the problems at the back – he’s certainly improved them going forward. Southampton will really fancy their chances of a result here after beating Chelsea on Boxing Day and following that up with a point against Crystal Palace who are tough to break down. Spurs look too short at 2.22 given their problems at the back and with Southampton on a good run, we’re happy to lay the away win.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Tottenham at 2.22.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsoutot
MATCH STATS
- Southampton won this exact fixture 2-1 last season, ending a run of six consecutive home league games without a win against Spurs (D2 L4).
- Tottenham have won 11 of their 15 Premier League against Southampton since Saints returned to the top-flight in 2012 – against no side have Spurs won more league games in that time.
- Southampton and Tottenham have faced on New Year’s Day once before in the Premier League, Saints winning 1-0 in 2003 thanks to a James Beattie strike.
- Tottenham haven’t lost their first league game of a calendar year since 2009 (0-1 at Wigan), winning eight and drawing two since then. The Lilywhites have also won their last six Premier League matches played on New Year’s Day.
- Southampton have won seven points from their last four home league games (W2 D1 L1), more than they had in their previous 10 games at St Mary’s (6 – W1 D3 L6).
- No side has kept fewer clean sheets in the Premier League than Tottenham this season (2), with only bottom side Norwich keeping as few. Indeed, since José Mourinho took charge, no Premier League side has conceded more goals in all competitions than Spurs (17).
- Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored in six consecutive Premier League appearances against Southampton – only Robin van Persie vs Stoke (8), Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink vs West Ham (7) and Romelu Lukaku vs West Ham (7) have had longer scoring streaks against an opponent in the competition.
- Tottenham’s Harry Kane has scored five goals in his last three Premier League appearances on New Year’s Day – in Premier League history, no player has scored more goals on that day than Kane (Andy Cole and Steven Gerrard also five).
- Since the start of the 2018-19 campaign, Danny Ings has had a hand in more Premier League goals than any other Southampton player (23 – 19 goals, 4 assists). Ings has scored 12 goals this season, his best ever tally in a top-flight season.
- Tottenham boss José Mourinho has never lost an away league match against Southampton in six previous meetings (W3 D3) – Mourinho has faced Saints more often than any other side without losing away from home in his managerial league career.
WATFORD V WOLVES
3pm What a different weekend these sides had! Watford had an absolutely massive win for them over Aston Villa – that puts them right back in the fight to stay up and they will be buzzing after their recent results. Meanwhile Wolves had everything VAR related go against them against Liverpool and lost 1-0. It seems like VAR is causing more problems than it’s solving at the moment, but that’s another debate! Watford really seemed to have turned a corner in recent weeks and they must fancy their chances of picking up more points here. Wolves didn’t really offer a huge amount going forward against Liverpool, but then again Liverpool are the best team in the league. We feel that Wolves are a little too short at 2.38 here. We fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest and from a value point of view, we’re happy to lay Wolves at the odds.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Wolves at 2.38.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwatwol
MATCH STATS
- After winning their first Premier League meeting with Wolves, Watford have lost their last two against them, including a 1-2 loss in this exact fixture last season.
- Wolves have won three of their last four away league games against Watford (L1), more than they had in their first 15 such visits against them (W2 D5 L8).
- Watford haven’t won their first league game of a calendar year since 2011 (3-0 vs Portsmouth), losing seven in a row before a 3-3 draw with Bournemouth in 2019.
- In the top-flight, Wolves haven’t won their first league game of a calendar year since 1981 (D1 L6), losing each of the last four in a row.
- Watford have kept clean sheets in their last three home league matches, last keeping four in a row in March 2014 (five); they have never kept four in a row at Vicarage Road in the top-flight.
- Wolves have conceded the first goal in more different Premier League games than any other side this season (13). However, they’ve only gone on to lose four of those 13 games (W2 D7), and have gained more points from behind than any other side so far in 2019-20 (14).
- Watford lost their first league game in each of the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s. Indeed, they last won their first league game of a decade in the 1960s, beating Exeter 5-2 in the old fourth division.
- Watford manager Nigel Pearson has won as many points in four Premier League games in charge this season (7 – W2 D1 L1) as Quique Sánchez Flores managed in his 10 games in 2019-20 (W1 D4 L5).
- Watford captain Troy Deeney has scored three of the six goals the Hornets have scored in the Premier League under Nigel Pearson – he’s looking to score in three consecutive home league games for the first time since March 2018.
- Wolves Raúl Jiménez has been directly involved in 26 goals in 31 games in all competitions this season (17 goals, 9 assists), more than any other Premier League player. It’s two more than the Mexican was involved in 44 appearances last term (17 goals, 7 assists).
MANCHESTER CITY V EVERTON
5.30pm Carlo Ancelotti kept his winning run as Everton manager going at the weekend with a 2-1 win away to Newcastle, but it should come to an end here. Manchester City got back to winning ways with a 2-0 win over Sheffield United after losing away to Wolves after having an early red card. This game will be a good test to see has Ancelotti really improved Everton and can he set them up to deal with the top sides.
The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Manchester City 1.3, Everton 11.5 and the draw is 6.6. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Ancelotti set up Everton quite negatively here. Perhaps this tactic can get some success; especially given how poor City have been at the back in recent weeks. Backing under 3.5 goals is tempting but Any Other Home Win (Manchester City to score four or more and win) looks very short at 3.5 in the Correct Score market and we can’t look past that as a great lay. Everton can keep the scoreline respectable here, even if they do lose.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Any Other Home Win at 3.5.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmcieve
MATCH STATS
- Man City have won their last four Premier League games against Everton – they’ve never won five in a row against the Toffees in the top-flight.
- Everton are winless in their last eight Premier League away games against Man City (D4 L4), though three of their last four visits to the Etihad have ended level (L1).
- Manchester City have won their first league game in 12 of the last 13 calendar years, losing only against Sunderland in 2012 in that run.
- Everton have lost their last three Premier League games played on New Year’s Day, failing to score each time. Their last such victory came back in 2012 (1-0 at West Brom).
- Manchester City have lost only three of their last 32 Premier League home games (W27 D2 L3), although two of those losses have come in their last seven at the Etihad (W5 L2). However, Man City have won 52 of their 67 Premier League home games under Pep Guardiola – more than any other Premier League team since the start of 2016-17.
- Everton are looking to win consecutive Premier League away games for the first time since September 2016. However, the Toffees have won just two of their last 23 Premier League away games against reigning champions (D6 L15), beating Man Utd in 2013-14 and Leicester in 2016-17.
- Man City’s Gabriel Jesus has scored in each of his last four Premier League games against Everton, netting five goals in total. He’s scored more goals against the Toffees in the competition than he has vs any other side (5).
- Carlo Ancelotti is looking to become only the second Everton manager to win each of his first three Premier League games in charge of the club, after Joe Royle in 1994. However, in the Italian’s previous stint in England, he lost more league games vs Man City than against any other side (3).
- Kevin De Bruyne has been directly involved in 19 goals for Manchester City in the Premier League this season (seven goals and 12 assists) – only Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has had a hand in more (20).
- Everton striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored five Premier League goals in December 2019, the most by a Toffees player in a single month since Romelu Lukaku scored five in February 2017.
NORWICH V CRYSTAL PALACE
5.30pm Norwich would have been delighted to pick up a point here at the weekend against Spurs. It wouldn’t have been expected, but if they are to stay up they need to win games like this. After losing against Watford, Southampton and Aston Villa they now go into New Years Day three points away from 19th and six away from 17th. They need to start winning games. They look far too short today at 2.54 though – they have conceded at least twice in their last nine home Premier League games and when you look at Crystal Palace’s stats; you can’t help but lay Norwich here. Palace have been absolutely excellent at the back, and while this has come at a cost of scoring – they shouldn’t have that problem against Norwich with their record. The 2.54 looks an excellent lay.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Norwich at 2.54.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnorcry
MATCH STATS
- Having been unbeaten in their first eight Premier League games against Crystal Palace (W4 D4), Norwich have lost each of their last three against the Eagles in the top-flight.
- Crystal Palace have won three of their last four away league games against Norwich (L1), as many as they had in their previous 15 visits to Carrow Road (W3 D6 L6).
- Norwich have only lost their first league game in one of the last 10 calendar years (W7 D2), going down 1-2 at West Ham in 2013 in the Premier League.
- This will be Crystal Palace’s 10th top-flight league game on New Year’s Day – the Eagles have won just one of their previous nine (D4 L4), beating Notts County 1-0 under Steve Coppell.
- Norwich have conceded at least twice in each of their last nine Premier League home games, the second longest ever such run in the competition after Wolves in April 2012 (11).
- Seven of Norwich’s last 10 Premier League points have been won against teams starting that day in the top half of the table. The other three came in a victory against Everton, who have since moved into the top 10.
- There has been just one goal scored in the first half of Crystal Palace’s last 10 Premier League games – scored in first half injury-time by Wilfried Zaha in Palace’s win at Burnley in November.
- Norwich were the only Premier League side that failed to win a game in December (D3 L4) despite leading in five of their seven games; the Canaries dropped 12 points from winning positions, the most ever by a team in a single month in Premier League history.
- The side bottom of the Premier League going into a new year has been relegated in 23 of the previous 27 seasons, though three of the four to avoid relegation have done so in the last six seasons – Sunderland in 2013-14, Leicester in 2014-15 and Swansea in 2016-17.
- Emiliano Buendía created 29 chances for his Norwich City team-mates in the Premier League during December – since 2003-04, that is the most a player has ever created in a single month.
WEST HAM V BOURNEMOUTH
5.30pm David Moyes returns to West Ham and one wonders what will happen this time. Last time around, West Ham were in the relegation zone and Moyes managed to save them only for the club to not offer him an extension to his six month deal. The Hammers have been woeful this season bar a few shock wins, and are only one point away from the relegation zone. Moyes will need to start good and fast, otherwise he’ll have the fans on his back early – it’s not exactly a glamorous appointment! The good news for Moyes is he has a very winnable fixture here. Bournemouth have been poor in recent months, and apart from a surprise win against Chelsea, they have been a very beatable side – especially away from home. It’s obvious the players weren’t happy and a new manager will change that. With Bournemouth struggling, West Ham can win here and we’re happy to take the 2.0.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
West Ham to beat Bournemouth at 2.0.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwesbou
MATCH STATS
- After winning two of their first three Premier League meetings with Bournemouth, West Ham are winless in their last six against the Cherries (D3 L3).
- Bournemouth have won four of their nine Premier League meetings with West Ham, including their first ever win in the top-flight in August 2015 (4-3 at Upton Park) – no side have they beaten more in England’s top division.
- Only Everton (10) have lost more Premier League games on New Year’s Day than West Ham (7).
- Bournemouth haven’t won their first league game in a calendar year since 2012 (2-0 vs Wycombe), though six of their subsequent seven games have ended level (L1).
- West Ham have lost their last four home Premier League games, their worst run since January 2006 (also four defeats in a row). They haven’t lost five home league games in a row since April 1931.
- Since winning back to back games against Everton and Southampton, Bournemouth have won just 10 points in the Premier League (W2 D4 L8) – only Norwich (7) and West Ham (8) have won fewer points over this period.
- Among all permanent West Ham managers in the Premier League, only Avram Grant (18.9%) and Gianfranco Zola (27.8%) have a lower win rate at the club than returning boss David Moyes (29.6%).
- Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson has scored seven goals in seven Premier League games against West Ham, while fellow striker Josh King has five in his last six against the Hammers. Neither player has scored more Premier League goals against a single opponent than they have vs West Ham.
- After failing to score or assist in any of his opening 12 Premier League appearances, West Ham’s Pablo Fornals has scored once and assisted three goals in his last six games in the competition.
- Since his Premier League debut for Bournemouth on February 2nd 2019, only David McGoldrick (34) and Ross Barkley (32) have had more shots without scoring than Bournemouth’s Dominic Solanke (31).
ARSENAL V MANCHESTER UNITED
8pm What a fixture to end the day! Arsenal were nearly doing United a massive favour against Chelsea at the weekend, only to throw it away in the last ten minutes. How very Arsenal! Remember when this fixture was between 1st and 2nd in the table and was close to deciding the league? Those days are long gone now with Arsenal outside the top ten and United outside the top four. They played out a boring draw already this season; hopefully we see more drama tonight.
The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Arsenal 2.76, Manchester United 2.66 and the draw is 3.75. Manchester United managed to keep a clean sheet away from home at the weekend for the last time in 14 games. Considering that they have always turned up this season against the bigger sides, we can expect a good performance here. Arsenal just look so flaky at the moment – like they can lose from anywhere. We expect a close game but it’s hard to see how Arsenal can win – they just don’t have the backbone. We’re happy to lay them at 2.76.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Arsenal at 2.76.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQarsmun
MATCH STATS
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last three Premier League meetings against Man Utd (W1 D2) – they’ve not gone four without defeat against them since February 1999 (W3 D1).
- Manchester United have lost three of their last four away Premier League games against Arsenal (W1), as many as they had in their previous 13 trips to the Emirates/Highbury in the competition (W4 D6 L3).
- This is the third top-flight meeting between Arsenal and Man Utd on New Year’s Day, with the Red Devils winning 2-0 in both previous such games (1912 and 1949).
- When playing their first league game of a calendar year at home, Arsenal haven’t lost since 1985 (1-2 vs Tottenham), winning 13 and drawing eight since.
- No team has won more Premier League games on New Year’s Day than Arsenal (9).
- Manchester United have won their first league game in each of the last four calendar years. Their last such defeat came in 2014 at home to Spurs (1-2).
- Arsenal are looking to avoid losing five consecutive home matches in all competitions for the first time in their entire history.
- Manchester United haven’t won three consecutive Premier League games since a run of six in Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s first six games in charge. The Red Devils have lost their last two away games in London (0-2 vs Arsenal in March 2019 and 0-2 vs West Ham in September 2019).
- Manchester United striker Marcus Rashford has been involved in 16 goals in 20 Premier League appearances this season (12 goals, 4 assists), though he hasn’t scored in any of his last seven appearances against Arsenal in the competition since scoring twice against them on his league debut in February 2016.
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored in Arsenal’s 1-1 draw with Man Utd in the reverse fixture this season, as well as netting in this exact fixture last term. The last Arsenal player to score in three successive Premier League games against Man Utd was Thierry Henry in November 2001.
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