PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: We preview Saturday Premier League games including the televised opener SPURS v ARSENAL – the North London derby – all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended stats.
TOTTENHAM V ARSENAL
12.30pm We have a fantastic weekend in the Premier League and what a way to start it! North London Derbies are always massive but after Spurs lost to Chelsea on Wednesday night. An Arsenal win would put them within a point of Spurs in third, and suddening a loss for Spurs and a win for Manchester United could see them battling for a top four spot – only a few games ago they were outsiders for the title!
The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Tottenham 2.1, Arsenal 3.8 and the draw is 3.75. If you’re an Arsenal fan you’d have to worry that their old habits are creeping back in away from home – they have one win from their last seven away games and after starting the season pretty strong away from home; they now look untrustworthy. Spurs have certainly had a tough run of fixtures including Champions League commitments and domestic Cup disappointments but they can get back to winning ways here against an Arsenal side struggling on the road.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Tottenham to beat Arsenal at 2.1.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQTtmArs
MATCH STATS
- Tottenham Hotspur have won five of their last seven home Premier League games against Arsenal (D1 L1), including each of the last two; only once in their top-flight history have Spurs won three consecutively at home against the Gunners (between January 1960 and August 1961).
- Arsenal are looking to complete a Premier League double over rival Spurs for only the fourth time, also doing so in 2004-05, 2007-08 and 2013-14.
- The away team have won just one of the last 16 Premier League fixtures between Spurs and Arsenal, with the Gunners winning 1-0 at White Hart Lane in March 2014; the home team has won each of the last four since April 2017.
- This will be the fifth meeting between Tottenham and Arsenal at Wembley, with Spurs winning two (D1 L1). They could become the first team to beat the Gunners on three separate occasions at the stadium.
- Tottenham haven’t lost three consecutive Premier League games since November 2012, the third defeat of which came against Arsenal.
- Arsenal have won five of their last six Premier League games (L1), as many as they had in their previous 13 in the competition (W5 D5 L3).
- Spurs boss Mauricio Pochettino has never lost a home Premier League game against Arsenal (P5 W3 D2 L0) – the only manager to have managed more home games against the Gunners without losing is Jose Mourinho (9).
- Spurs striker Harry Kane has scored eight of Spurs’ last 11 Premier League goals against Arsenal; only Wayne Rooney (12), Robbie Fowler (10) and Peter Crouch (9) have scored more Premier League goals against the Gunners than Kane’s tally of eight.
- Harry Kane has scored eight goals in eight Premier League games between Spurs and Arsenal, a joint-record in the competition along with Emmanuel Adebayor (8 in 13 games).
- Arsenal striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored more London derby goals than any other player in the Premier League this season (6).
BOURNEMOUTH V MANCHESTER CITY
3pm Manchester City are trading the shortest price of any side in the Premier League this weekend, and they are away from home! The markets can’t see past a City win here with them trading as short as 1.24 at the time of writing. Bournemouth were hammered by Arsenal during the week however they’ve been very poor away from home and should put up a better fight in front of their home fans. Bournemouth have been performing well in the Premier League in recent times but they also come up consistently short against the big six – they’ve lost 10 of their last 12 at home against the big six and with City pushing for the title, it’s hard to see anything but a City win here. We feel that Bournemouth won’t concede too many goals though, and with Any Other Away Win (City to score four or more and win) trading 3.2 in the Correct Score market; that looks a good value lay.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Any Other Away Win at 3.2.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQBneMci
MATCH STATS
- Bournemouth have never beaten Manchester City in 13 previous league meetings (W0 D2 L11).
- Manchester City have won all seven Premier League meetings with Bournemouth, scoring 24 goals and conceding just three.
- Manchester City’s 100%-win record in seven games against Bournemouth is the best in Premier League history and joint-best in top-flight history, along with Brighton & Hove Albion against Wolves (also seven wins out of seven).
- Bournemouth have lost 10 of their last 12 home Premier League games against ‘big six’ opponents, beating Arsenal in January 2018 (2-1) and Chelsea in their last such game (4-0).
- Man City have lost three of their last six Premier League away games (W3), more than they had in their previous 34 on the road (W26 D6 L2).
- Man City have won all six of their Premier League games on the south coast under Pep Guardiola, with their last such defeat coming at Southampton in May 2016.
- Man City have won their last four Premier League games, winning the last three by an aggregate score of 9-0. They last won four in a row without conceding in September 2017.
- Manchester City’s Raheem Sterling has scored in all six Premier League matches against Bournemouth; he could become the fourth player to score in seven consecutively against an opponent, and the first since Romelu Lukaku in October 2016 against West Ham.
- Man City’s Sergio Aguero is the Premier League’s top scorer this season with 18 goals. However, just three of these have come away from home.
- Bournemouth’s Josh King has had a hand in five goals in his last three Premier League home games, scoring four and assisting one.
BRIGHTON V HUDDERSFIELD
3pm Huddersfield produced a shock win on Tuesday night at home to Wolves. It came from absolutely nowhere given their recent run of poor form however we did note in our preview that when teams have accepted their faith they sometimes relax and play with more freedom. Perhaps that has happened with Huddersfield. This is an interesting market because Brighton haven’t won in three games here and have been in woeful form over all in the Premier League. They’ve lost eight of their last 12, and five of their last six. Huddersfield have obviously been very poor this season and deserve to be bottom of the Premier League however we can’t have this Brighton price at 1.85. Hopefully Huddersfield’s confidence got a big boost during the week after their win and we expect a closer game than odds on 1.85 suggest – it looks the best lay of the day.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Brighton at 1.85.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQBriHdd
MATCH STATS
- Brighton are unbeaten in six home league meetings with Huddersfield Town (W3 D3 L0) since a 2-3 defeat in League One in April 2011.
- No team have played more league matches against Brighton at the Amex Stadium without winning than Huddersfield Town (6, level with Leeds United).
- Brighton are winless in three home Premier League games (W0 D1 L2), last enduring a longer run between October and December 2017 (six games).
- Since 2011-12, when the Amex Stadium opened, Yorkshire teams have won just two of 30 visits there in league football (including play-offs), with Barnsley winning 2-1 in December 2013 and Sheffield Wednesday winning 1-0 in August 2014 (W2 D10 L18).
- Brighton haven’t lost consecutive home league matches in the same season since losing three in a row in the Championship in January 2016.
- Huddersfield Town defeated Wolves 1-0 in midweek and will be looking to win consecutive Premier League matches for the first time in over a year (February 24th 2018, the last time).
- Huddersfield haven’t scored a goal in their last five league matches played in March, including all four in the Premier League last season.
- Brighton have lost eight of their last 12 Premier League games (W1 D3), losing five of their last six (D1).
- Brighton have won just one of their nine Premier League games against teams starting the day in the bottom three (W1 D3 L5), losing their last three in a row.
- Huddersfield striker Steve Mounie has been involved in four of Huddersfield’s last five Premier League goals (2 goals, 2 assists).
BURNLEY V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm Both these sides would have been disappointed with losing during the week and with things very tight at the bottom of the table, this is a big fixture. Burnley have been in excellent form lately and we can forgive them one loss looking at their overall form. We have a very open market here with the match odds at the time of writing currently trading; Burnley 2.92, Crystal Palace 2.74 and the draw is 3.35. Given that Burnley have only lost one game in their last nine games, we simply can’t have Palace as favourites here – especially away from home. Burnley have won three of their last four here and Palace don’t have a good record when traveling here too. Everything points to Palace being too short here and we’re very happy to lay them.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Crystal Palace at 2.74.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQBrlCry
MATCH STATS
- Burnley have lost their last two Premier League games against Crystal Palace, though both have been at Selhurst Park.
- Crystal Palace have won just one of their last 10 away league visits to Turf Moor against Burnley (W1 D4 L5), a 3-2 win in January 2015.
- Burnley’s midweek Premier League 0-2 defeat at Newcastle United ended an eight-game unbeaten run in the competition (W5 D3 L0); which was their longest-ever unbeaten streak in the Premier League.
- Burnley are unbeaten in four Premier League games at Turf Moor; winning three and drawing one. All three wins in this run have come against London clubs: West Ham United, Fulham and Tottenham Hotspur.
- Crystal Palace have won a league-high share 56.7% of their Premier League points away from home this season (17/30).
- Burnley have won just three of their last 19 Premier League matches when they’ve made a change to their starting XI (D2 L14) but are unbeaten in their last eight when they’ve named an unchanged side (W5 D3).
- Burnley’s last 49 Premier League goals have all been scored inside the box – the last team to have a longer run were Crystal Palace (56 between September 2016 and December 2017).
- All four of Sean Dyche’s league wins against Crystal Palace as Burnley boss have come against different managers (Holloway, Pardew, Allardyce, De Boer).
- Burnley’s last eight Premier League goals have been scored by either Chris Wood or Ashley Barnes (four each).
- Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has had a hand in five goals in his last five Premier League games (4 goals, 1 assist).
MANCHESTER UNITED V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm Manchester United are suffering from a whole host of injuries at the moment but they battled hard to beat Crystal Palace during the week. They will have to fight hard again here against a Southampton side who have turned into one of their ‘bogey’ teams since Alex Ferguson left – they have only won one of their last five home Premier League games against Southampton since he retired. That makes the 1.48 look a little short but this United side has been buzzing since Solksjaer took over; however with the injury list it’s hard to get away from the United lay here at such short odds. Southampton had a solid 2-0 win during the week and are battling to stay in the Premier League. They haven’t been playing good football this season but with United having a long injury list and Champions League commits next week too; we like the United lay at 1.48 which looks ten ticks too short.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Manchester United at 1.48.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQMunSou
MATCH STATS
- Manchester United have won just one of their five home Premier League games against Southampton since Sir Alex Ferguson retired (W1 D2 L2) – under Ferguson, they won 13 out of 14 against the Saints at Old Trafford (D1).
- Southampton have drawn their last two league matches against Man Utd; they haven’t avoided defeat in three consecutively against them since May 1989 (five games).
- Since the 2013-14 campaign, only Manchester City and West Bromwich Albion (3) have won more away Premier League games at Old Trafford than Southampton (2).
- In Premier League history, Manchester United have come from behind to win eight matches against Southampton, a joint-record in the competition with Manchester United also coming from behind eight times to win against Newcastle and Chelsea doing so against Sunderland.
- Southampton have won just one of their last 33 Premier League games against ‘big six’ opponents (D9 L23), beating Arsenal 3-2 in December.
- Since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took charge, Man Utd have won at least five more Premier League points than any other side (29).
- Manchester United striker Romelu Lukaku has been involved in nine goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances against Southampton (7 goals, 2 assists), though both his goals against Saints for Man Utd have been scored away from home.
- Romelu Lukaku’s brace against Crystal Palace for Man Utd last time out means the Belgian has now scored at least 10 goals in each of his last seven seasons in the Premier League.
- Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse has scored four Premier League goals this season – he’s never scored more in a single campaign in the competition.
- Man Utd’s Paul Pogba has recorded 20 Premier League goal involvements this season (11 goals, 9 assists), matching his best return in a single campaign in the top five European leagues (8 goals, 12 assists in 2015-16).
WOLVERHAMPTON V CARDIFF
3pm It came as a big shock to see Wolves loss against Huddersfield during the week and they take on another side in the bottom three here. Huddersfield and Fulham look certain to go down; however Cardiff have a real chance to stay up and any points away from home would be a massive boost for them. They’ve won two of their last four away from home too, and while Wolves have been impressive thus far this season they do look a little short here at 1.53. They failed to register a single shot against Huddersfield which is very odd for a side who have been having a good season – perhaps it was just a blip but we like the 1.53 here nonetheless as we expect a closer game than those odds suggest with Cardiff fighting for survival.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Wolverhampton at 1.53.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQWolCar
MATCH STATS
- Wolves have lost five of their last seven league matches against Cardiff (W2), losing the reverse fixture at the Cardiff City Stadium in November.
- Cardiff City, 2-1 winners at Molineux in August 2017, are looking to win consecutive away league matches against Wolves for the first time since February 1988.
- Wolves have won four of their last five home matches in all competitions (D1), as many as they’d won in their first 12 games at Molineux this season (W4 D3 L5).
- Cardiff have won two of their last four away Premier League games (L2) – as many as in their first 28 in the competition (W2 D6 L20).
- Wolves haven’t lost consecutive matches in all competitions since November 2018, when they lost against Huddersfield and Cardiff.
- Cardiff have conceded at least three goals in 11 different Premier League games this season, more than any other side.
- Wolves failed to register a shot on target in their 0-1 defeat to Huddersfield, only the third time they had failed to do so in a league match under Nuno Espirito Santo (also against Barnsley in January 2018 and Man City in January 2019).
- Cardiff City have registered a pass accuracy of just 64.2% this season, the lowest tally by a Premier League team in a season since Stoke City in 2010-11 (64%).
- Nuno Espirito Santo’s first defeat as Wolves boss was against Cardiff City – the Bluebirds are one of only two teams he has lost more than once against as Wolves boss, along with Huddersfield Town.
- Cardiff boss Neil Warnock’s only previous top-flight league visit to Wolves came in September 2011 as QPR manager, a 3-0 victory – it remains Warnock’s biggest away top-flight victory in 71 such games.
WEST HAM V NEWCASTLE
5.30pm This is a very interesting clash. Newcastle have been on a very good run lately and have shot up the table just at the right time. They are now six points off the bottom three and in relative safety in 13th considering there’s plenty of teams on similar points. West Ham battled hard but still lost 1-0 away to City during the week and if they play a similar game here it’s hard to see Newcastle beating them. Even league leaders Liverpool couldn’t beat them here two games ago and they beat Fulham 3-1 in their last home game. We expect a good match to watch here between two teams in good form and while the West Ham lay at 2.18 in tempting because we expect a closer game than those odds suggest, we prefer under 2.5 goals at 1.9 which looks good value. Newcastle are very tight at the back, especially away from home and this will be a very close affair – unders looks the value call.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Under 2.5 goals at 1.9.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQWhuNwc
MATCH STATS
- West Ham United, 3-0 winners against Newcastle in the reverse fixture, are looking to complete a league double over the Magpies for the first time since the 1998-99 season.
- Newcastle United are looking to win consecutive away Premier League matches against West Ham for the first time since September 2006.
- West Ham have lost just one of their last seven home Premier League games, and are unbeaten in their last four at the London Stadium (W2 D2).
- Newcastle United have won four of their last six Premier League games (D1 L1), as many as in their previous 22 combined this season (W4 D6 L12).
- No side has lost more Premier League away games in London than Newcastle (74, level with Everton).
- In all competitions, Newcastle have registered four victories by more than one goal during 2019 – one more than in the entirety of 2018 (3); the Magpies haven’t won an away Premier League match by a margin of more than one goal since a 3-0 win at Hull City in January 2015.
- Only against Wigan (6) has West Ham’s Javier Hernandez scored more Premier League goals than he has against Newcastle United (5).
- Newcastle manager Rafael Benitez has won more Premier League games against West Ham than he has vs any other opponent (11).
- Despite being West Ham’s top scorer in the Premier League this season with eight goals, Felipe Anderson has failed to score in his last nine games in the competition.
- Sean Longstaff scored his first Premier League goal against Burnley in Newcastle’s last match – should he score in this game, he’d be the youngest Englishman (21y 123d) to score in consecutive Premier League games for the Magpies since James Milner in January 2007.
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