PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: We preview Saturday’s Premier League matches with recommended BETDAQ bets and extended match stats. The action starts at 12.30pm with defending champions MAN CITY v ASTON VILLA.
MANCHESTER CITY V ASTON VILLA
12.30pm We kick off Saturday in the Premier League with Manchester City hosting Aston Villa! It’s close to impossible to see anything other than an easy home win here, but stranger things have happened! City did lose their last Premier League home game 2-0 against Wolves, however they scored five here midweek in the Champions League. It’s more of a case of how many goals here, not if City win. Villa have done well since coming into the Premier League and sit safely in 12th position heading into this weekend’s fixtures, but we can see City putting them to the sword here. Any Other Home Win (City to score four or more and win) collected here during the week and it should collect again – it looks good value at 2.1 to start the action today!
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Any Other Home Win at 2.1.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmciast
MATCH STATS
- Manchester City have won their last nine Premier League home games against Aston Villa by an aggregate score of 30-4. Their last such defeat was in April 2007 (0-2).
- Aston Villa have failed to score in seven of their last nine Premier League meetings with Manchester City (W1 D1 L7), with the two games they have scored in finishing 3-2 (W1 L1).
- Manchester City haven’t lost consecutive home league games since February 2016, while Pep Guardiola has never lost back-to-back home games in his entire managerial league career.
- Man City have already failed to win two of their four home games in the Premier League this season (W2 D1 L1) – more than they did in the whole of 2018-19 (W18 D0 L1).
- Aston Villa have won their last two Premier League games, more than they had in their previous 20 in the competition (W1 D3 L16). They last won three in a row in the competition back in April 2010 under Martin O’Neill.
- Aston Villa are winless in their last 13 Premier League games against reigning champions, drawing three and losing the last 10 in the row. Their last such win came at Manchester United in December 2009.
- Manchester City have already lost against Norwich this season – they’ve not lost to two promoted sides in a single Premier League season since 2008-09 (West Brom and Stoke), while they haven’t lost at home against a promoted team since 2006-07 (vs Reading).
- Man City’s Sergio Agüero has scored six goals in his last four Premier League games against Aston Villa, including five in his last three against them at the Etihad.
- In his last four Premier League games, Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish has been involved in four goals (2 goals, 2 assists) and created 15 chances for his teammates. In his first five league games this season, he’d been involved in just one goal (1 assist) and created 10 chances.
- English managers have won just one of their last 42 away Premier League matches against Man City (W1 D3 L38), with Roy Hodgson winning 3-2 with Crystal Palace in December 2018. The last Englishman to win his first away Premier League match against Man City was also Hodgson, in April 2008 with Fulham.
BRIGHTON V EVERTON
3pm This should be a very close game. Both sides sit beside each other in the table and it’s not a surprise to see such an open market. The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Brighton 2.94, Everton 2.68 and the draw is 3.4. Everton got a much needed win last weekend against West Ham after losing four Premier League games in a row. Brighton have been a much improved side since last season, but still have many questions at the back. They have played some good football, but left plenty of space at the back too – in fairness they have been a much better team to watch compared to last season. Everton have been very poor, and while they did beat West Ham last weekend we need to see more from them. They look way too short here at 2.68 and from a value point of view, we have to lay them. Brighton should be shorter in our book, and the Everton lay looks cracking value.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Everton at 2.68.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbrieve
MATCH STATS
- The home side has never lost a Premier League meeting between Brighton and Everton (W3 D1), with Brighton winning this exact fixture 1-0 last season.
- Everton lost their last meeting with Brighton (0-1 in December 2018) – they’ve never lost consecutive matches against the Seagulls in all competitions.
- Everton are winless in their last 10 Premier League trips to the South Coast (D3 L7), with the Toffees’ last victory coming against Southampton in August 2015 under Roberto Martinez.
- Brighton are looking to record consecutive home Premier League victories for the first time since October 2018 – on the day of this game, it will be 364 days since they last did so, winning against Wolves.
- Everton have only registered consecutive Premier League wins under Marco Silva on two previous occasions, winning three games in a row in September/October 2018 and March/April 2019.
- Since joining the Premier League in 2017-18, Brighton have seen seven different players red carded (Knockaert x2, Dunk, Duffy, Andone, Propper, Stephens, Mooy), with only Everton and Leicester having more players sent off in that time (8).
- Everton haven’t lost four consecutive away Premier League matches since losing five in a row between December 2017 and March 2018 under Sam Allardyce.
- Brighton’s Pascal Groß assisted Adam Webster’s goal via a corner against Aston Villa – since the start of the 2017-18 season, no player has created more chances from set- plays than Groß (69, level with Gylfi Sigurdsson).
- Everton are one of only two Premier League teams this season to score 100% of their goals in open play (8/8), along with Newcastle United.
- Everton manager Marco Silva could become the first manager to lose three Premier League games against Brighton – three others have also lost two currently (Rafael Benitez, Jose Mourinho and Roy Hodgson).
WATFORD V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm Watford managed to bag a point away from home against Spurs at the weekend, but they still sit bottom of the Premier League and need a win very soon. They are lucky to still be within three points of the team in 19th and five points away from getting out of the bottom three, but they have only managed four draws in nine games and if they don’t start winning games soon – panic will kick in. Unlike Watford, Bournemouth have been pretty solid this season. They are comfortably in the 10th position coming into this weekend and Watford look very short at 2.24. A point against Spurs was a positive, but Spurs have been woeful this season so we can’t judge Watford on that. We just can’t have Watford as short as 2.24 and they look the best value lay of the day in the Premier League. Bournemouth will make those odds look very short.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Watford at 2.24.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwatbou
MATCH STATS
- The home side has never won in eight previous Premier League meetings between Watford and Bournemouth (D6 L2) – no fixture in the competition has been played more without a home win (Leicester v West Brom also eight).
- Bournemouth haven’t lost at Watford in league competition since August 2013 (1-6), winning one and drawing four since.
- There were 10 goals scored in the two Premier League meetings between Watford and Bournemouth last season, with nine of those strikes coming in the first half.
- Of Premier League fixtures to have been played at least six times, Watford vs Bournemouth has finished as a draw in the highest percentage of meetings (75% – 6/8).
- Watford are without a win in their opening nine Premier League fixtures this season (D4 L5); if they fail to beat Bournemouth, they will equal their longest start to a league campaign without a victory (10 – 2006-07). Seven of the last eight teams to fail to win their opening 10 games of a season were relegated, with Newcastle the exception last season.
- Bournemouth are goalless in their last two Premier League matches; only twice previously have the Cherries failed to score in three successive games, most recently in December 2017. Before this current run, Bournemouth had scored in 10 consecutive league fixtures.
- Watford’s Abdoulaye Doucouré has scored in 14 Premier League games but ended on the winning side in just two of those (W2 D6 L6), the worst win percentage of any player to score in 10 or more games in the competition’s history.
- Bournemouth have won six of their nine Premier League games against teams starting the day at the bottom of the league (L3), with one of those defeats coming against Burnley last season, a 4-0 defeat at Turf Moor in September 2018.
- Watford defender José Holebas has received 41 cards in 108 Premier League games (40 yellows, 1 red); of players to have made 100+ appearances in the competition, no player has a higher average of games per card (2.6 games per card).
- Bournemouth striker Josh King has scored five goals in his last six Premier League appearances against Watford, with four of those goals coming at Vicarage Road.
WEST HAM V SHEFFIELD UNITED
3pm Sheffield United would have been absolutely delighted to collect three points against Arsenal on Monday night. Although Arsenal are poor away from home, Sheffield United wouldn’t have expected a win and when you’re fighting to stay in the Premier League points like that are massive. Perhaps they won’t even be fighting for survival towards the end of the season – they haven’t looked like a team who were favourites to go down at the start of the season. West Ham would have been disappointed to lose last weekend against Everton, especially with Everton in poor form and they look a little short at 2.16 here. From a value point of view, that 2.16 looks like a must lay – we fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest. Sheffield United are unbeaten away from home in the Premier League this season, and they will make life tough for the Hammers – the 2.16 is a great value lay.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay West Ham at 2.16.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwesshe
MATCH STATS
- West Ham have won just one of their last seven home meetings with Sheffield United in all competitions (D5 L1), though it did come in the last such Premier League meeting between the sides (1-0 in November 2006).
- Sheffield United are winless in their last 16 top-flight games in London, drawing five and losing 11 since a 2-1 win at Chelsea in October 1992.
- West Ham lost 2-1 against Crystal Palace in their last home Premier League game – the Hammers haven’t lost consecutive league games at London Stadium since September 2018.
- Sheffield United are one of only two Premier League teams still unbeaten away from home this season (W1 D3 L0), along with Liverpool. The last newly-promoted team to go unbeaten in their first five away Premier League games of a season were Hull City in
2008-09 under Phil Brown. - West Ham manager Manuel Pellegrini is set to face Sheffield United for the first time in the Premier League – he has registered a victory over 25 of the previous 28 teams he’s faced, failing only against Brighton, Man City and Wolves.
- Since the start of the 2016-17 season, Chris Wilder has won 79 league matches as manager of Sheffield United – in the top four tiers, only Jurgen Klopp (81) and Pep Guardiola (93) have won more in that time.
- West Ham have won none of their last nine Premier League games in October (W0 D3 L6) since winning 1-0 against Sunderland in October 2016.
- Sheffield United striker Lys Mousset has only started two Premier League matches in the last two seasons – but the Frenchman has found the net in both, against Arsenal in February and October 2019.
- West Ham goalkeeper Roberto Jiménez made nine saves in their 2-0 defeat against Everton, the joint-most in a Premier League game this season. Since his debut on September 28th, only Brighton’s Mat Ryan (17) has made more saves than Jiménez (13).
- Based on Opta’s expected goals on target data (xGoT), Sheffield United’s Dean Henderson has prevented 4 goals in the Premier League this season; no goalkeeper has prevented more. In fact, Henderson has kept 25 clean sheets in the league since the start of last season; more than any other goalkeeper in England’s top four tiers.
BURNLEY V CHELSEA
5.30pm Chelsea had a superb win away from home in the Champions League on Wednesday night against Ajax, and would love to follow that up with three points here. After a poor start to the Premier League, they have made up a lot of ground with Manchester United, Arsenal and Spurs all dropping points – a Top Four finish looks likely again. Chelsea have a good record against Burnley too; only losing once in their last ten meetings; however Burnley have been impressive at home this season. They have won three of their four games, keeping three clean sheets along the way. Chelsea come into the game full of confidence though after three Premier League wins and their excellent win at Ajax during the week. At 1.8 we’re happy to back the away side – Burnley are a solid side but the stats say they consistently come up short against the Big Six. They’ve only won once in 25 fixtures and lost 18 of those – with Chelsea confident and playing good football, the 1.8 looks worth backing.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Chelsea to beat Burnley at 1.8.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQburche
MATCH STATS
- Burnley have won just one of their 10 Premier League meetings with Chelsea (D3 L6), winning 3-2 at Stamford Bridge in August 2017.
- Chelsea have won four of their five Premier League away games against Burnley (D1), scoring at least twice in each victory.
- Chelsea have scored in all 10 of their Premier League encounters against Burnley – amongst sides they’ve never failed to score against in the competition, the Blues have only played more games against Portsmouth (14), Derby (14) and Wigan (16).
- Burnley have picked up nine points from a possible 12 at home in the Premier League this season, keeping three clean sheets (W3 D0 L1); registering more points (7) and clean sheets (2) than they kept in their opening nine games at Turf Moor in the previous campaign.
- Chelsea boss Frank Lampard is looking to win four successive league games for the first time in his managerial career, with the Blues last winning four Premier League games in a row in September 2018 (Maurizio Sarri’s first five in charge of the club).
- Burnley have only won one of their 25 Premier League encounters with “big six” clubs (W1 D6 L18), a 2-1 victory against Tottenham at Turf Moor in February 2019. In fact, the Clarets are without a clean sheet in their last 34 such games, conceding 75 goals.
- Chelsea have won their last three Premier League away games, scoring 3+ on each occasion – the Blues have never won four successive top-flight matches on the road whilst scoring three or more goals.
- Chelsea have conceded 28 goals in 13 Premier League away trips in 2019; the most the west London side have conceded in a calendar year since 1997 (31 goals in 21 PL games).
- Burnley striker Chris Wood has scored four goals in his last four Premier League appearances, one more than in his previous 16 league games combined. Wood provided the assist for the Clarets’ equaliser against Chelsea back in April.
- Both Tammy Abraham and Mason Mount have found the net in each of Chelsea’s last three Premier League away games, the last Blues player to score in four consecutive appearances on the road was Diego Costa in December 2016 (four games).
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