PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: We preview Saturday’s Premier League games BRIGHTON v CRYSTAL PALACE, BOURNEMOUTH v CHELSEA, NEWCASTLE v BURNLEY, WEST HAM v SOUTHAMPTON and WATFORD v LIVERPOOL all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.

BRIGHTON V CRYSTAL PALACE

12.30pm We have a shortened Premier League fixture list this week as we have the Carabao Cup Final at Wembley, but we still have a very interesting weekend ahead. We kick things off with Brighton hosting Crystal Palace in what is a big game for the home side. They are only four points ahead of 19th position and it’s games like this one that they need to pick up points in. Crystal Palace grinded out a win against Newcastle last weekend and have moved away from the bottom six now so they can enjoy the rest of their season.

The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Brighton 2.14, Crystal Palace 4.2 and the draw is 3.35. Crystal Palace have a very poor long-term record here, winning just twice in their last 18 league visits. That record comes back a while though, and a more important stat is the fact that no side is currently on a longer winless run in the Premier League than Brighton. They haven’t won a game yet in 2020 and odds of 2.14 on them jump off the page as a brilliant lay. It’s the best value lay of the weekend. Palace have been very solid at the back this season and they can get a result here.

BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Brighton at 2.14.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbricry

MATCH STATS

  • Brighton are unbeaten in their last three league meetings with Crystal Palace (W2 D1), their longest such run against them since a run of 10 between 1979 and 1986.
  • Crystal Palace have won just two of their last 18 away league games against Brighton (D5 L11), with those wins coming in 2005 and 2011. The Eagles have never won a top-flight away game against Brighton (D1 L3).
  • No side is currently on a longer winless run in the Premier League than Brighton, with the Seagulls winless in all seven of their league games in 2020 so far (D5 L2). Indeed, Brighton are the only one of the 91 current Football League sides not to have won a game in any competition so far this calendar year.
  • Brighton have conceded first in each of their last four Premier League games, but have come back to draw each of their last three. However, the Seagulls have never won a Premier League home game when conceding first (D10 L14).
  • Crystal Palace are looking to win back-to-back Premier League games for the first time since December. However, the Eagles are winless in their last six Premier League away games (D4 L2).
  • Crystal Palace have the oldest average starting XI in the Premier League this season (29y 253d). On top of this, their youngest goalscorer in the competition this season is 26-year-old Connor Wickham.
  • This will be Roy Hodgson’s 100th Premier League game in charge of Crystal Palace (W33 D27 L39), the first club he’s reached the milestone within the competition. His win rate with the Eagles in the Premier League is 33%, his lowest at any of the five clubs he’s taken charge of.
  • Including play-offs, Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has scored more league goals against Brighton than he has vs any other side (6).
  • Brighton’s Glenn Murray has scored six goals in his last eight appearances in Brighton vs Crystal Palace matches in all competition (2 for Palace, 4 for Brighton), netting in each of his last four for the Seagulls.
  • Crystal Palace winger Wilfried Zaha is averaging a Premier League goal or assist every 394 minutes this season (3 goals, 3 assists in 2365 minutes). Last season, the Ivorian was involved in a goal every 203 minutes (10 goals, 5 assists in 3040 minutes).

BOURNEMOUTH V CHELSEA

3pm It’s been a miserable week for Chelsea and Bournemouth will be hoping to benefit from their Champions League hangover. Bayern Munich schooled Chelsea in the Champions League on Tuesday night, winning 3-0 away from home and effectively putting the tie to bed. Chelsea only have a three points cushion on Manchester United in the race for a top four finish so they need to keep winning – they can’t let their poor Champions League performances effect their Premier League form. Bournemouth have been lucky in recent weeks, losing twice but not losing ground on the sides lower than them in the table. They still sit in 16th but there’s only two points back to 19th. Bournemouth have won their last two home games but they came against Aston Villa and Brighton. Over all they have been poor this season and Chelsea can outclass them – the 1.8 on the away win is worth backing.

BETDAQ BEST BET:
Chelsea to beat Bournemouth at 1.8.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbouche

MATCH STATS

  • Bournemouth have won three of their last four Premier League meetings with Chelsea (L1), including the last two in a row. They’re looking to complete the league double over Chelsea for the very first time.
  • None of the nine previous Premier League meetings between Bournemouth and Chelsea have been drawn (4 wins for Bournemouth, 5 for Chelsea), with the away side winning six of the nine games (67%).
  • Since they were promoted to the division in 2015, only Manchester City have won (6) and kept more clean sheets (5) in the Premier League against Chelsea than Bournemouth (4 wins, 4 clean sheets).
  • Each of the last 12 Premier League goals in Bournemouth vs Chelsea matches have come in the second half. Indeed, just two of Bournemouth’s 11 Premier League goals against the Blues have come before half-time, with the Cherries losing both times they netted before the interval.
  • Bournemouth have won their last two Premier League home games, last winning three in a row at the Vitality Stadium in February 2018. They’ve won as many points in their last two at home as they had in their previous eight (W1 D3 L4).
  • Bournemouth have failed to score in 11 of their 27 league games this season, just one fewer than in the whole of 2018-19. Only Watford (12) have failed to find the net in more top-flight games this term.
  • Chelsea are looking to secure consecutive Premier League victories for the first time since a run of six between September-November. The Blues are still winless away from home in the Premier League in 2020 (D2 L1).
  • Chelsea have conceded 45% of the shots on target they’ve faced in the Premier League this season (37/83), more than any other side. Indeed, it’s the highest such ratio any side has conceded in a single season since this data is available (2003-04).
  • Bournemouth have scored fewer second half goals than any other side in the Premier League this season (10). They’ve also scored a league-low ratio 38% after half-time (10/26), while Chelsea have conceded a league-high 65% of their Premier League goals after the interval (24/37).
  • Chelsea striker Olivier Giroud netted his first Premier League goal of the season last time out against Spurs – the Frenchman has been involved in five goals in his three league starts against Bournemouth (1 goal, 4 assists).

NEWCASTLE V BURNLEY

3pm It’s not a surprise to see such an open market between these two. It’s hard to see anything other than a very close game. Burnley always battle hard and keep things tight, while Newcastle will home advantage are always competitive. Newcastle are without a win in their last four Premier League games, more worryingly they have failed to score in three of those. They are just outside the bubble of the bottom six so close to each other, but it only takes a couple of losses for them to be bang in trouble. Burnley arrive here in great form, winning four of their last five Premier League games and with Newcastle have some problems scoring, we’re going to take a plunge on Burnley at 3.0. We feel that price looks around ten ticks too big.

BETDAQ BEST BET:
Burnley to beat Newcastle at 3.0.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnewbur

MATCH STATS

  • Newcastle haven’t lost a home league game against Burnley since April 1976, winning three and drawing three since.
  • Following their 1-0 win in December, Burnley are looking to complete the league double over Newcastle for the first time since the 1960-61 campaign when the Clarets were the reigning champions.
  • Newcastle are winless in their last four Premier League games (D2 L2), and have failed to score in their last three. The Magpies last went four in a row without a goal in September 2015.
  • Burnley have won four of their last five Premier League games (D1), as many as they had in their previous 14 in the competition (W4 D0 L10).
  • Newcastle have faced more shots on target than any other Premier League side so far this season (158). Only once since 2003-04 has a team faced as many as 5.9 shots on target per game in a Premier League campaign and avoided relegation (Sunderland in 2015- 16).
  • No side has scored a higher share of their Premier League goals from set-piece situations (excluding penalties) than Newcastle this season (50% – 12/24). However, Burnley have conceded a league-low 5% of their goals this term from such situations (2/39).
  • There have been just 24 goals scored in Newcastle’s 13 Premier League home games this season (F12 A12) – no other side’s home games have seen fewer. Only in 1980-81 has St James’ Park seen a lower goals-per-game ratio (1.7) than the 1.8 there this term.
  • Of players to have played at least 900 minutes in the Premier League this season, Newcastle’s Allan Saint-Maximin has embarked on more dribbles per 90 minutes than any other player (9.7). He’s beaten an opponent with 58% of these, the third highest among players to have attempted at least 100.
  • Newcastle striker Joelinton has gone 24 games, 1946 minutes and attempted 35 shots since his last Premier League goal against Tottenham in August.
  • Burnley’s Matej Vydra has scored in back-to-back Premier League games, having netted just once in his previous 24 appearances in the competition with West Brom, Watford and Burnley combined. He last scored in three consecutive league games in November 2017 with Derby in the Championship.

WEST HAM V SOUTHAMPTON

3pm West Ham came so close to getting a result against Liverpool at Anfield on Monday night, but as like many teams this season, they couldn’t stop Liverpool late on. In fairness, anything at Anfield would have been a bonus and as David Moyes said after – their big games start now. He is right, if West Ham are going to stay up they can’t be relying on beating Liverpool – they need to beat sides like Southampton with home advantage! The problem for West Ham this season has been their home form though, they have won the least amount of points at home in the Premier League – only 12. Compare this to Southampton who have actually been better away from home than at home – 59% of their points have come away and that’s actually a league high. West Ham just haven’t been good enough this season and we like Southampton to get a result here – we can’t get away from the West Ham lay at 2.8.

BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay West Ham at 2.8.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwhusou

MATCH STATS

  • West Ham have won each of their last four Premier League games against Southampton – only against Blackburn between 2006-2008 have the Hammers had a longer winning run against an opponent in the competition (5).
  • After drawing their first Premier League away game against West Ham (3-3 in May 1994), none of Southampton’s last 16 visits to the Hammers in the competition has ended level (W4 L12).
  • West Ham have won more Premier League games overall (17) and more Premier League home games (12) against Southampton than they have against any other side.
  • No side has won fewer Premier League points at home than West Ham this season (12). Meanwhile, Southampton have won a league-high share 59% of their points away from home this term (20/34).
  • Since beating Fulham 3-1 in February 2019, West Ham have lost their last 17 Premier League games when conceding the first goal; both the longest current run in the division and West Ham’s longest such losing run in the competition.
  • Since (and including) a 2-1 win against Watford at the end of November to end an eight-game winless run in the Premier League, Southampton have earned 25 points from their 14 Premier League games (W8 D1 L5). Only the current top two sides Liverpool and Man City have earned more in that time.
  • West Ham have dropped 22 points from leading positions in the Premier League this season, more than any other side. In no campaign in the competition have the Hammers dropped more points (also 22 in 2010-11 and 2016-17).
  • West Ham defender Issa Diop has scored two goals in his last three Premier League games, as many as he had in his previous 52 in the competition. 75% of the Frenchman’s goals in the competition have been scored in his six games in 2020 (3/4).
  • Southampton’s Pierre-Emile Højbjerg has had more shots without scoring than any other player in the Premier League this season (39).
  • Southampton’s Stuart Armstrong has scored three goals in his last five Premier League games, as many as he had in his first 44 appearances in the competition.

WATFORD V LIVERPOOL

5.30pm The Champions Elect are back in action to finish off the Premier League action on Saturday after their dramatic win on Monday night against West Ham. Hopefully this game is just as dramatic! Liverpool have already won the Premier League, we’re all just waiting to see by how far! For Watford it’s a completely different story, they are sitting in 19th position and desperately need points if they’re going to have a chance of staying up.

The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Watford 8.8, Liverpool 1.45 and the draw is 5.0. Watford found themselves a bit adrift in the bottom three and in fairness they have done brilliantly to get back in touch. The problem for them is that they were so far back, any slip up would have seen them fall back down quickly. Liverpool have a massive nights ahead of them in the FA Cup and the Champions League but as we seen against West Ham, Liverpool can win from anywhere in the Premier League this season. We like the away win at 1.45 and Liverpool to get the job done yet again.

BETDAQ BEST BET:
Liverpool to beat Watford at 1.45.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwatliv

MATCH STATS

  • Watford are winless in their last eight Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D1 L7), losing each of the last four by an aggregate score of 0-15.
  • Under Jürgen Klopp, Liverpool have scored more Premier League goals against Watford than they have vs any other side in the competition (27 in nine games).
  • At least one side has scored three goals in five of the six Premier League meetings between Watford and Liverpool at Vicarage Road, with the exception being a 1-0 win for Liverpool in May 2017.
  • Since beating Liverpool 2-1 on the final day of the 1982-83 season, Watford have lost 15 of their 16 top-flight matches against sides top of the table (D1), including each of the last 13 in a row.
  • Liverpool have won their last 18 Premier League games; another win here would set a new record for most consecutive victories in English top-flight history.
  • Liverpool conceded more goals in their 3-2 win against West Ham last time out than they had in their previous 11 Premier League matches combined (1). They’ve not conceded more than once in consecutive league games since December 2016.
  • All 24 of Watford’s Premier League goals this season have been scored from inside the box. In Premier League history, there has been just two occasions of a team scoring 100% of their total goals from inside the area, with Middlesbrough (35) and Man City (33) both doing so in 1995-96.
  • Liverpool’s Sadio Mané has either scored or assisted in all six of his Premier League games against Watford for Liverpool, scoring five goals and assisting four in these matches.
  • Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has scored eight goals in his five Premier League games against Watford, netting both goals in the Reds’ 2-0 victory in the reverse fixture this season.
  • Troy Deeney is Watford’s top Premier League scorer this season with five goals, with all of these strikes coming in a seven-game spell in December and January.

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