PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: We preview Sunday’s three Premier League games with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended stats. Bournemouth v Man City, Tottenham v Newcastle and Wolves v Burnley.
BOURNEMOUTH V MANCHESTER CITY
2pm We have an interesting day ahead in the Premier League with three odds on favourites, two of which are very short. We start with the shortest price of the day with Manchester City. The match odds at the time of writing are currently trading; Bournemouth 17.0, Manchester City 1.22 and the draw is 8.0. Bournemouth would have been happy to pick up three points against Aston Villa last weekend, because their chances of picking up anything here are slim.
What can we say about Manchester City? They may have only drawn with Spurs last weekend; but their expected goals was through the roof compared to Spurs and they were very unlucky to not win the game. They will blow many teams away this season and Bournemouth can easily be one of them. Any Other Away Win (Man City to score four or more goals and win) is trading 3.1 at the time of writing and that looks worth backing.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Any Other Away Win at 3.1.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQBneMnc
MATCH STATS
- Bournemouth have never beaten Manchester City in 14 previous league meetings (W0 D2 L12), losing each of their last eight games, all of which have been in the Premier League.
- Man City’s 100%-win record in eight games against Bournemouth is the best in English top-flight history. Man City have won those eight matches against the Cherries by an aggregate score of 25-3.
- Bournemouth have lost 13 of their last 15 Premier League games against ‘big six’ opposition (W2), with both victories in this run coming at the Vitality Stadium (4-0 v Chelsea in January and 1-0 v Spurs in May).
- Man City have won their last eight away Premier League games versus teams on the south coast, since a 2-4 loss versus Southampton in May 2016.
- Bournemouth have never kept a clean sheet in their 21 previous Premier League games on a Sunday, shipping 56 goals in total (W3 D2 L16). Their only two home wins on Sunday in the top-flight have been vs ‘big six’ sides (4-3 v Liverpool and 2-1 v Arsenal).
- None of Man City’ last 16 away league games have finished level – with the Citizens winning 13 including the last eight in a row (L3).
- Callum Wilson hasn’t scored in any of his last five Premier League home games for Bournemouth, going 469 minutes and taking 15 shots since his last goal at the Vitality Stadium.
- Man City’s Raheem Sterling has been directly involved in 10 goals in just seven Premier League appearances against Bournemouth (8 goals, 2 assists), with the England forward netting in two of his three games at the Vitality Stadium.
- Man City midfielder Kevin De Bruyne has assisted 49 goals in his 122 Premier League appearances so far – the fewest number of games taken to assist 50 goals in the competition’s history is held by Mesut Özil (141 games).
- Man City boss Pep Guardiola has won all six of his Premier League meetings with Bournemouth – only versus Malaga (8/8) and West Ham (7/7) does he have a better 100% win record against a team as manager in league competition.
TOTTENHAM V NEWCASTLE
4.30pm Spurs would have been absolutely delighted to pick up a point away against Manchester City last weekend and they should be able to dispatch Newcastle with relative ease today. Newcastle have lost two from two and while the first game came against Arsenal, they shipped three goals away to Norwich last weekend. There seems to be always trouble between the fans, staff and owners at Newcastle – could this be the season they go back down?
The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Tottenham 1.28, Newcastle 14.5 and the draw is 6.6. Spurs are an improving side under a superb manager and we can see them getting closer to Liverpool this season – they don’t seem to be on the same level as Manchester City (especially judging by the expected goals last weekend!) however they can improve their points from last season. We like them to cover the handicap today and they’re trading 1.85 -1.5 goals which looks great value.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Tottenham -1.5 goals to beat Newcastle at 1.85.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQTtmNwc
MATCH STATS
- Tottenham have won their last four Premier League matches against Newcastle, since a 1-5 defeat on the final of the 2015-16 campaign. The Lilywhites have never won five consecutive league games against the Magpies.
- None of Spurs’ last 21 Premier League home games against Newcastle have ended as a draw (13 wins for Spurs, 8 wins for Newcastle).
- Newcastle won 4-0 versus Fulham on their last Premier League visit to London in May – their biggest margin of victory in a Premier League game in the capital. They haven’t won consecutively in London in the competition since a run of four victories between May 2013 and January 2014.
- Newcastle have won 21 Premier League matches against Spurs – only versus Aston Villa (22) have they enjoyed more victories in the competition. The Magpies have scored more goals against Spurs than versus any other Premier League team (73).
- Newcastle have won just three of their last 21 Premier League games in London (W3 D3 L15), although they won on their most recent visit, beating Fulham 4-0 in May. They last won consecutive top-flight trips to the capital during a four-game run ending in January 2014.
- Spurs have won 23 points at home in 2019, 16 more than they’ve picked up on the road (23 at home, 7 away) – the biggest points differential amongst Premier League sides this calendar year.
- Tottenham have lost just once in their last 10 Premier League home games (W7 D2 L1), picking up seven victories, including a 1-0 win over Newcastle in February. Indeed, Mauricio Pochettino (66% – 63/96) has the best win ratio of any of Spurs manager in home league matches (min. 15 games).
- Tottenham’s Harry Kane has scored in just two of his eight Premier League appearances versus Newcastle, converting only two of his 23 shots against the Magpies (8.7% conversion rate).
- Steve Bruce is looking to avoid becoming the first permanent Newcastle United manager to lose his opening three games in the Premier League, following defeats to Arsenal and Norwich City.
- Newcastle midfielder Jonjo Shelvey has scored with two of his last four efforts at goal in the Premier League – before this, Shelvey had scored with just two of his previous 136 shots in the competition.
- This is Tottenham boss Mauricio Pochettino’s 500th game as a manager in all competitions in his career. Excluding other ‘big six’ sides, against no side has he lost more Premier League games than he has against Newcastle.
WOLVES V BURNLEY
4.30pm This should be a very good match, and a very close one too. Definitely the closest game of the day! Burnley have started the season well with a comfortable 3-0 win over Southampton and they performed well when losing away from home to Arsenal last weekend. Wolves have drawn two from two, but one of those came against Manchester United. Both sides will feel that they can pick up three points here, and it’s hard to see anything other than a close affair.
The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Wolves 1.88, Burnley 5.2 and the draw is 3.5. We have to lay Wolves at the odds here. We fully expect a closer game than odds of 1.88 at the home side suggest. Burnley have goals in them and while Wolves were good against United – they have only netted once in their opening two games and we feel that Burnley can frustrate them here. We have to lay Wolves from a value point of view.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Wolves at 1.88.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQWolBrn
MATCH STATS
- Wolves have won their last four top-flight home games against Burnley – they haven’t won five in a row since a run of seven ending in April 1900.
- Burnley have lost just one of their last six league encounters against Wolves (W3 D2 L1), winning 2-0 in their most recent meeting back in March at Turf Moor.
- This will be the first top-flight meeting between Wolves and Burnley where neither side were newly promoted since February 1976, with Wolves winning that fixture 3-2.
- Burnley have failed to score in 14 of their last 19 competitive away games at Wolves, including drawing a blank in four of their last five trips to Molineux.
- Wolves are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League games at Molineux, winning six and drawing three. They last had a longer unbeaten home run in the top-flight between April-October 1979 (10 games).
- The only previous campaign in which Wolves drew their opening three league games was in 1938-39, when they ended up finishing second in the top-flight.
- Since the start of last season, Burnley have kept three clean sheets in 20 Premier League away games. All three of them have been in 0-0 draws (at Southampton, Leicester and Watford).
- Burnley have won just two of their last 15 Premier League games on a Sunday (D2 L11), losing eight of the last 10.
- In league football for Wolves, midfielder Rúben Neves has scored three more goals from outside the box (9) than he has had touches in the opposition box (6).
- Coming into the weekend’s matches only Sadio Mané (15) and Sergio Agüero (14) have scored more Premier League goals in 2019 than Burnley’s Ashley Barnes (12). Barnes has netted 40% of the Clarets’ league goals this calendar year so far (12/30).
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