FRIDAY CHELTENHAM: Our friends at ProForm look at Cheltenham Gold Cup day having nominated THISTLECRACK (WON EVENS) as their best bet on Thursday. Which horses are the stats pointing towards backing and laying on BETDAQ?
Positives:
1-30 Triumph Hurdle: A very open race to start Gold Cup day. A few trainers have had almost bang on their expected winners over hurdles at Cheltenham, and you should check out the whole list on ProForm on the BETDAQ website.
Alan King and Richard Johnson have a 38% strike rate together, they team up with Who Dares Wins, while King and Daryl Jacob have won on 4 of the 6 times they’ve teamed up – they have Sceau Royal here at 9.8. There is a negative with Alan King at the moment however, noted in the negatives below.
2-10 County Hurdle: Alan Fleming and AP Heskin have a 22% strike rate together, winning above the expected; they team up with Blue Hell here, currently 12.5.
Plenty of positive Trainer/Jockey here; for those on the favoruite, Willie Mullins and Barry Geraghty have a 23% strike rate when they team up.
2-50 Albert Bartlett: Long Dog has won 3 from 3 in this class, and 6 from his 7 starts. He’s currently 9.0.
Harry Fry has a positive record over hurdles at Cheltenham, it’s a small sample but above his expected, he saddles Unowhatimeanharry at 15.0. While Neil Mulholland only has a small sample, he’s over his expected too – Shantou Village is the favourite at 5.3.
3-30 Gold Cup: Davy Russell has a 20%+ strike rate over fences at Cheltenham and has ridden well above his expected winners, he rides Don Poli at 6.0. Barry Geraghty also has a good record at Cheltenham; he rides Carlingford Lough at 28.0.
In terms of which trainers are in form, obviously Willie Mullins is! However another is Rebecca Curtis, winning above her expected in the last 14 days and 40% of her runners have won or placed, maybe Ofaolains Boy (70.0) or Irish Cavavlier (130.0) can our-run their odds.
4-10 Foxhunters: Obviously a tricky race stats wise. Jonjo O’Neill have Phillip Hobbs both have very good records over fences at Cheltenham though, and Twirling Magnet (34.0) and Mendip Express (14.0) could offer some value.
4-50 Martin Pipe Hurdle: Again a tricky race stats wise with the jockeys. Lucinda Russell and Nigel Twiston-Davies are in good form, both having above their expected winners recently. They saddle Sky Khan (75.0) and Flying Angel (15.5).
Paul Nicholls and Jack Sherwood have a 27% strike rate together, they team up with Ibis Du Rheu at 19.5.
5-30 Grand Annual: JonJo O’Neill’s good record over fences at Cheltenham comes back here, he saddles Eastlake (13.5) and The Saint James (18.5).
Nicky Henderson and Nico De Boinville have had over 17 more than the expected winners when they’ve teamed up, can they end a successful Cheltenham with Lough Kent at 15.0?
Negatives:
1-30 Triumph Hurdle: Alan King’s recent form must be a worry, he’s only managed 1 win from his last 22 runners, after being in good form a few weeks ago, his graph on the 14+ trainer ProForm page is going down fast.
2-10 County Hurdle: Not a huge amount of negatives in this race, however while Paul Nicholls and Sam Twiston-Davies have a 22% strike rate, they have had 20 less than their expected winners. They have All Yours at 19.5
2-50 Albert Bartlett: David Bass, on Barters Hill at 5.7, has only rode 1 winner from 31 rides over hurdles at Cheltenham, a small enough sample but below his expected. He’ll be under pressure not to make a mistake on a high profile ride.
3-30 Gold Cup: Noel Fehily, Paddy Brennan and Wayne Hutchinson have all ridden below their expected winners over fences at Cheltenham, all their strike rates are 5% or lower.
For those of you on Don Cossack, Gordon Elliott and Bryan Cooper have a 20% strike rate, however have had below their expected winners.
4-10 Foxhunters: All eyes will be on Victoria Pendleton here on Pacha Du Polder, who is 0 from 3 at Cheltenham so far.
Enda Bolger’s recent form has to be a worry for favourite backers, he is without a win in his last 25 runners, his expected was only just above 3 but it has to be a minor worry if backing On The Fringe at 3.85.
4-50 Martin Pipe Hurdle: Gordon Elliott and Luke Dempsey’ strike rate when they team up is only 7% from a sample of over 100 runners. Westend Star is 20.0.
5-30 Grand Annual: Aiden Coleman’s record over fences at Cheltenham is only 4%, almost twice below his expected. He rides Germany Calling at 50.0
PROFORM BETS
Betdaq BACK of the day on stats: Shantou Village 2-50 Cheltenham, at around 5.3.
Next best: Don Poli 3-30 Cheltenham, at around 6.0.
Betdaq LAY of the day on stats: Barters Hill 2-50 Cheltenham, at around 5.7.
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