RBC CANADIAN OPEN: The PGA Tour heads up to Canada this week for the RBC Canadian Open, an event with a prestigious history that has been weakened in recent years due to its place on the schedule. I mean, would you choose to fly directly from Scotland to Canada if you were an elite player who didn’t need the money? Most of the top guys understandably answered “no” to that question, and so Jason Day and Dustin Johnson– both compelled to attend because of their relationship with the title sponsor, RBC– will be the only top-15 players in attendance this week.
That doesn’t mean we should expect a snoozer of a tournament: on the contrary, the Canadian Open usually features a crowded leaderboard and plenty of low scores, making it an under-the-radar favorite of many golf enthusiasts. Glen Abbey in Oakville, Ontario will play host for the 27th time; it’s a straightforward tree-lined layout that just so happens to be the very first course designed by the great Jack Nicklaus. Measuring a mere 7,253 yards, Glen Abbey is short by Tour standards, and with four reachable par-5s there are plenty of scoring opportunities. Jason Day reached 17-under in his 1-shot victory over Bubba Watson last year, and Vijay Singh’s 9-under total back in 2004 remains the last time a winner at Glen Abbey has failed to finish the week at least 16 strokes below par. Translation: prepare for a good old-fashioned birdie fest.
Day and Johnson, both trading at 6.6 at the time of this writing, are the clear favorites this week, but it should be noted that this tournament has produced winners like Tim Clark, Sean O’Hair, Carl Pettersson, Nathan Green, and Chez Reavie in recent years, so shopping for value a little further down the board may not be a bad idea. Here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Matt Kuchar (18.0)- Mediocre showings in majors have obscured what has otherwise been a brilliant season for Kuchar, and he should be right in his comfort zone this week at a golf course that he has excelled on in the past, finishing 7th last year and runner-up in 2013 (the tournament wasn’t held at Glen Abbey in 2014). I mean, just take a look at his recent string of finishes in non-majors: T3, T4, T6, 3, T3. He’s knocking on the door repeatedly, and now he comes to a place where history is on his side and the field isn’t particularly strong. Kuchar is a blue-chip option this week and should be backed enthusiastically in all formats.
Jon Rahm (70.0)- While a guy like Kuchar should be considered a “blue-chip” option due to his strong current form and great course history, Rahm most definitely falls into the “high risk” category, as he’s never played Glen Abbey and has only been a professional for a few short weeks. However, the young Spaniard is supremely talented, and his ability to dominate a course with his length and aggressive style is already evident. He got his first taste of blood at Congressional last month, opening with a 64 and hovering around the top of the leaderboard all week before finishing third, and Glen Abbey is similar to Congressional in a lot of ways: traditional layout, bentgrass from tee to green, and a spate of holes that can be unmanned with a 330-yard drive right up the gut, which just happens to be one of Rahm’s specialties. You just know that big things are right around the corner for this kid, and you won’t be seeing prices like 70.0 next to his name for long. I’m happy to take a chance on him in this situation.
Roberto Castro (106.0)- Though I’m sure he would’ve rather been at Troon, Castro did well for himself at last week’s Barbasol Championship in Alabama, breaking 70 in all four rounds and going on to finish 11th. That makes two 11th-place finishes in his last three PGA Tour starts, and we’re not that far removed from his runner-up showing in May’s Wells Fargo Championship, when he was beaten by James Hahn in a playoff. In other words, Castro is an ascending player, and the fact that he’s had success at Glen Abbey in the past, tying for sixth in this tournament back in 2013, makes him a very intriguing option at a price like 106.0.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Jason Day (1.86) vs. Dustin Johnson (1.86)
Day is the defending champ and an absolute birdie-making machine, but his form seems to have slipped slightly– just slightly– over the past few weeks, while Johnson is playing the best golf of his career. And D.J.’s only trip to Glen Abbey resulted in a 3rd-place showing (2013), so his memories of the course should be almost as good as Day’s. Recommendation: Johnson at 1.86
Graham DeLaet (1.87) vs. David Hearn (1.86)
A Canuck hasn’t won the Canadian Open since 1954, and if it’s going to happen this year it’s probably going to be one of these two guys. DeLaet has certainly had his moments in this tournament and he’s generally a bit steadier than Hearn, but he struggles with the putter at times and was enduring a really bad stretch before finding some success at the Barbasol Championship last week. Hearn has played well of late, finishing 27th or better in four of his past five starts, and he should feel great about his chances at Glen Abbey after tying for third in this event last year. Recommendation: Hearn at 1.86
