San Diego Chargers (7-4, 5-6 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (7-4, 6-4-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Baltimore -6.5 (45.5)
Significant Injuries
San Diego: G Ryan Miller (questionable– groin), LB Andrew Gachkar (doubtful– knee), DT Ryan Carrethers (out– elbow)
Baltimore: WR Michael Campanaro (questionable– thigh)
Recent Trends
San Diego is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record
San Diego is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall
Baltimore is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games
Baltimore is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record
Baltimore is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. AFC opponents
The UNDER is 6-2 in San Diego’s last 8 road games
The UNDER is 16-5 in San Diego’s last 21 games vs. AFC opponents
The UNDER is 4-1 in Baltimore’s last 5 home games
The OVER is 4-1 in Baltimore’s last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
Three reasons to back San Diego
1. The Chargers, a quality 7-4 team that’s won two straight games, are getting a generous 6.5 points here despite the fact that Baltimore hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 2. The Ravens’ last 3 home games have come against Carolina, Atlanta, and Tennessee, so they’ve been fattening up on the dregs of the league while San Diego had to face Denver and Miami in their past two road games. These teams are evenly matched– we’ll see who comes out on top– but the line here suggests otherwise. Sharp bettors will be taking the points.
2. San Diego has one of the league’s best defenses, a unit that ranks 9th in yards allowed and surrenders just 19.6 points per game. It’s going to be tough sledding for a Baltimore offense that had been struggling until breaking out against New Orleans (and their porous defense) last week. The Ravens had scored 24 points or fewer in each of their previous 3 games. Can they score enough to beat the Chargers? Possibly. Will they score enough to cover the 6.5-point number? Probably not.
3. The Chargers have a pass-first offense led by Pro Bowl quarterback Philip Rivers, and the Baltimore defense has been horrible against the pass this season, surrendering more pass yards per game than all but 3 teams leaguewide. This is a great matchup for the San Diego offense.
Three reasons to back Baltimore
1. The Ravens are one of the most complete teams in the league and they’re especially good at home, where they’ve covered in four consecutive games despite being favored each time. The Chargers, on the other hand, are totally disintegrating, a fact that’s been partially masked by their soft schedule, which has allowed them to pick up wins over bad teams (Oakland, St. Louis) in each of the past two weeks. Still, any bettor worth his salt knows how bad the Chargers have been lately, as they’ve failed to cover in 6 straight games and have been outscored 72-21 in their last two road games.
2. The Baltimore defense ranks 6th in points allowed and has been downright dominant at home, surrendering just 10.6 points per game. The San Diego offense, meanwhile, has regressed over the course of the season and rumors of undisclosed Philip Rivers injuries have emerged. The Chargers are averaging a paltry 16.2 points per game over their past 5 contests and Rivers has looked like a shell of himself.
3. First-year offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak has done wonders for the Baltimore offense, as the unit now ranks 6th in points scored after really struggling last season. They hung 34 points on New Orleans last week and there’s no reason they can’t put forth a similar performance against a San Diego defense that has surrendered 100 combined points in their past 3 road games.
Prediction
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