San Diego Chargers (1-1, 2-0 ATS) @ Buffalo Bills (2-0, 2-0 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Buffalo -2.5 (45)
Significant Injuries
San Diego: CB Chris Davis (questionable– ankle), CB Brandon Flowers (questionable– groin), RB Ryan Mathews (out– knee)
Buffalo: TE Lee Smith (questionable– toe), LB Keith Rivers (out– groin)
Recent Trends
San Diego is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games
San Diego is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win
Buffalo is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games
Buffalo is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a win of 14 points or more
The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 4-0 in San Diego’s last 4 road games
The UNDER is 11-2 in San Diego’s las 13 games vs. AFC opponents
Three reasons to back San Diego
1. The Chargers are coming off a win over the Seattle Seahawks, the NFL’s best team, and the two teams they’ve faced this season– Arizona and Seattle– both have great defenses. After hanging 30 points on the mighty Seahawks, it’s difficult to imagine the San Diego offense being held in check by a mediocre Bills defense.
2. Second-year Buffalo quarterback E.J. Manuel has been turnover-prone and inaccurate in his brief career, while his counterpart in this game, San Diego’s Philip Rivers, is a Pro Bowl-caliber player. The Rivers-led Chargers offense was a top-5 unit statistically last season and he picked apart the vaunted Seattle secondary last week. If this game comes down to Philip Rivers vs. E.J. Manuel, Buffalo is at a tremendous disadvantage.
3. The strength of the Buffalo offense is their running game– they’ve averaging just 186 passing yards per game this season– and the San Diego defense is really tough against the run, limiting the Seahawks to 103 rushing yards last week, with 45 of those coming on two Percy Harvin runs. This is a great matchup for the Chargers; the wrong team is favored here.
Three reasons to back Buffalo
1. The Bills have beaten two quality teams this season and they’re playing at home, where they’re 8-2 against the number in their last ten contests. They’re a bargain as a favorite of less than a field goal.
2. Buffalo has one of the best secondaries in the league, and the San Diego offense is pass-heavy to the point of being one-dimensional. This week the Chargers will be without starting running back Ryan Mathews, who is nursing a knee injury, so they’ll be even more reliant on the passing game than usual, which plays right into the hands of the Buffalo defense.
3. The Bills are undervalued here because of their losing history, which is something that should be taken advantage of by bettors. Just look at what they’ve done this season, who they’ve beaten. Their supposed weakness– the passing game– features the most exciting rookie in the league and a young quarterback who may possess elite ability. In other words, they don’t really have a weakness. They may be the most undervalued team in the NFL.
Prediction
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