ENGLISH GREYHOUND DERBY: Paul Lawrence and Barry Caul cast their eyes over the semi-finals of the English Greyhound Derby staged at Towcester on Saturday with their best BETDAQ bets …
1st Semi-Final
Barry:
It’s semi-final night at Towcester this weekend and with six Irish and six English dogs remaining, it promises to be a terrific night’s racing.
The first semi-final looks a pretty open betting affair, and I think it could be nearly 3/1 the field come Saturday night.
We’ve got to start with Clona Duke, who broke the track record back in round two. We just haven’t seen the same Clona Duke so far, have we?
Paul:
I feel there were excuses for him in the quarter-finals, in that he showed nice early pace off a poor break. He tried to challenge Mystical Mario, who renews rivalry here, at the third turn and just caught his heels when he was making his move and then he tried to come again on the run-in.
I actually think the old spark came back, it’s just the Achilles heel of the start. Clona Duke’s a massive runner in this first semi-final, but I thought BURJ KHALIFA, with that good wide draw, as a sole wide seed on the outside would probably be just about the pick ahead of Clona Duke. They were the two runners for me.
Barry:
I agree, I think if you were to pick a dog that who is certain to qualify it would be Burj Khalifa as he’s got a cracking draw on the outside in trap six. I do think Mystical Mario will edge in ever so slightly from trap four, but he should be far enough ahead to not cause any trouble.
What about Gaytime Nemo, would you agree that Clona Duke would have to clear him to be at his best?
Paul:
Gaytime Nemo is a dog that ran well from trap five in the quarter-finals, but in his previous runs wearing the red jacket he’s just edged off the rails a bit. He kind of looks like he feels trapped at the first bend and just checks off from heels. If Mystical Mario does go up from trap five and comes across on the turn, it could be the same kind of scenario and that’s why I feel Burj Khalifa should get a clear run on the wide outside, but I fear the pace of Clona Duke more than anything else.
Barry:
We’ve got to talk about Ballymac Finn of course. I’m of the opinion that if last week’s trial was maybe a trial before the Derby and the week before that was maybe round one, they would probably have pulled him from the Derby. He’s just not looked the same dog we saw when he was runner-up in the Irish Greyhound Derby at Shelbourne Park. It’s hard to pull him out now he’s a semi-finalist. We know there’s much better to come but he’s just been so disappointing the last couple of weeks.
Paul:
Liam [Dowling] let out that Ballymac Finn was suffering a little bit in the second round with a bit of sickness, and probably if it wasn’t the Derby he wouldn’t be running, but there’s only one Derby. To be fair it just shows his quality that he has got to the stage.
Barry:
Of the 12 greyhounds in the semi-finals 11 started their career in Ireland, with the exception being Cochise, who started his career in England. What chance do you give him of qualifying?
Paul:
The fact that he’s a strong-running dog, he could easily sneak in as a third dog here if a couple of them don’t run up to scratch. Cochise is absolutely on fire at the moment. He is more a six-bend dog, but he has been trapping smartly and he has been thundering home. He could easily qualify at a big price.
Barry:
It’s BURJ KHALIFA for Paul in the first semi-final. I’m going to be with GAYTIME NEMO, I think if he comes out like he can do, he will put it up to them.
SELECTIONS:
Paul: BURJ KHALIFA
Barry: GAYTIME NEMO
2nd Semi-Final
Barry:
The second semi-final is once again a top-class affair. It sees the red-hot ante-post favourite Swords Rex go here from trap five. On paper and in the betting it looks a match between the big two; Swords Rex and Romeo Command. Which one would you be siding with?
Paul:
I think SWORDS REX is a dog that has progressed through the competition like a realistic Derby winner. He’s showing all sorts of early pace and he’s got a devastating turn of backstraight pace too. He sees the trip out well enough – there aren’t too many dogs that will back run a 28.80, which he’s quite capable of doing every day of the week.
Romeo Command has been an improver. I don’t think he’s quite got the same early pace as Swords Rex, but he has got good all-round pace and he stays okay. It could be quite a tussle, should Romeo Command break in his best fashion and put it up to Swords Rex in the early stages. But in my mind, I think there are a lot of staying types in this race and Swords Rex has the best early pace, so he should go clear.
Barry:
The most impressive thing for me in this competition so far about SWORDS REX is I don’t think he’s actually blown the lids in any of the rounds so far, but it’s as soon as his paws hit the ground, it’s his instant acceleration that has been exceptional.
We have to respect Romeo Command’s race record – I think he’s won 14 of 15 since he’s gone over to England.
Paul:
I actually think that Romeo Command has improved throughout the competition and I think Pat Janssens has got him firing on all cylinders. He’s got that ability now to start a bit better, whereas before he was kind of getting on the back foot and he was having to negotiate a path through runners. I think he’s got a massive chance of clearing Romeo Top Gun, Savana Beau and Jacktavern Bella into the turn, turn a clear second and I think then it could be race on, as he probably might just stay that little bit better than Swords Rex.
Barry:
Apart from the big two, there is one more qualification spot on offer and it involves plenty of strong runners. I think the two major runners are Savana Beau and Jacktavern Bella, but in fairness a dog I like in trap one is Romeo Top Gun. I think he might have more early pace than Savana Beau and Jacktavern Bella and I think if he gets a length in front of those two, he could be hard to pick up.
Paul:
I totally agree with you. Romeo Top Gun has been flying and is another dog that is progressing for Pat [Janssens]. He was drawn in trap one when behind Swords Rex in the quarter-final and to get beat just over three lengths by the ante-post favourite, I think that’s a really good feat. He sees the trip out well and will be in front of Jacktavern Bella and Savana Beau if he breaks okay, so they might just struggle to back run him and I think the third qualifying spot could easily go to Romeo Top Gun.
SELECTIONS
Barry:
To qualify:
5 (SWORDS REX), 4 (ROMEO COMMAND), 1 (ROMEO TOP GUN)
Paul:
To qualify:
5 (SWORDS REX), 4 (ROMEO COMMAND), 1 (ROMEO TOP GUN)
Best bets on Saturday’s undercard
Barry:
6:35pm NANEY JEZABELLE – He’s a nice improving dog by Pestana and didn’t do a lot wrong last week in a hot race behind Ballymac John and Swithins Teejay. One Day Scooby is drawn in trap three and is mad for the inside, while from trap one, Makeit Magical could edge out, so I think there might be trouble there. At around 14/1, Naney Jezabelle could get a decent run early.
7:30pm FROMPOSTTOPILLAR – He won a tremendous race last week and I think the draw could be in his favour this weekend. He’s probably better if he misses the break in this contest because there’s plenty of early pace on his inside with Rioja Joey and Brookside Richie. If he can slot in behind those too, I think he could be a decent bet. He could go off around 6/4 because there will be plenty willing to take him on.
Paul:
6:50pm SIGNET GOOFY – He’s a dog I really love and I was a bit miffed that he went out of the Derby. He’s trapping nicely and showing good early zip and that should be enough to take him to the front in this contest.
6:20pm SWITHINS TEEJAY – He came out of the boxes well and showed really nice early pace last time to beat the odds-on favourite Ballymac John, who reopposes here in trap one. They’re drawn in the same boxes as last time and I don’t see why it shouldn’t be the same outcome, as Swithins Teejay can improve again as well.
Barry:
A four-timer there for myself and PL and if they all click, we won’t be here for the final next week!
