LOW STALLS SHOULD HELP PUNTERS AT DUNDALK: Shamrock follows the track bias to low numbers in the draw at the Dundalk evening Polytrack meeting tonight.
Draw your own conclusions. The bias to low numbers continues to dominate racing at Dundalk: winning stalls up to 1m 4f at the last meeting in fields with double figures were 2, 3, 2, 1, 1.
Tonight all eight races are shorter than 1m 4f, and all are double-figure fields, but let’s stick to handicaps where – since, in theory, the horses are weighted to finish level – the bias should have most effect.
6.30 Dundalk David Marnane’s raider, Angel’s Pursuit, has had a poor year but has dropped only 7lb on his third, blinkered first time and from the plum stall, at Kempton in March.
On the other hand, four-time Dundalk winner Copper Dock is 27lb below his last winning mark on the track, but he was well behind Duff in October before that one, in turn, was pipped in a blanket finish, trying to give 17lb to Gordon Lord Byron.
Rudolf Valentino and Keeptheboatafloat should make a pace which the 7f winner Duff can appreciate, though he freewheels from stall one.
7.00 Dundalk Fast Finian has looked promising in his maidens and the grey’s chance is improved from a five draw and a fair mark, whereas the other grey, Banner Road, has been so punished for beating The Kerrigal here last month that she has it all to do to confirm placings. All three are well enough drawn.
8.00 Dundalk Ashton Rose has landed a hat-trick here from stalls 6, 11 and 14, and the 5lb claim and the best draw in her sequence – she’s in four – will help her bid for the four-timer.
Curl Cat won in fast time at Clonmel and I expect him to try to make all – as he did at Laytown – from stall one, which should allow him to get clear of two other potential front-runners, Fountain Of Honour (stall 11) and Massabini (in 14).
9.25 Dundalk I would lay the Scottish raider, Dhaular Dhar, an in-and-out performer at the best of times. He won his latest start but has not put two good runs together since 2008 and his nine wins from 95 races have not included back-to-back success.
I can’t resist the form of Elizabeth Coffee: in fact, Denny Crane (stall 6) was probably unlucky not to beat her at this track a week ago, when she had the one stall and he was in 10.
SHAMROCK’S BETS
NAP: Denny Crane (9.25 Dundalk)
NEXT BEST: Duff (6.30 Dundalk)
EACH-WAY: Fast Finian (7.00 Dundalk), Ashton Rose (8.00 Dundalk)
LAY: Dhaular Dhar (9.25 Dundalk)
DAQ TRIO: Duff (6.30 Dundalk), Ashton Rose (8.00 Dundalk), Denny Crane (9.25 Dundalk)
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