MURTAGH CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE: Shamrock reports Circumstances a strong market leader at Dundalk this evening but reckons Johnny Murtagh will make a big difference to his nap in the opener.
Don’t mention the draw! We all know that low numbers are favoured at Dundalk but, whenever I take the bias on board, the high numbers do best.
Last year at the corresponding meeting there were no double-figure winners and the results by stall were all 3 to 9.
Other ‘bias’ factors worth considering are the success of raiders by Kevin Ryan and the massive haul of winners on the course by Ger Lyons; twice as many as most, though Mick Halford isn’t doing so bad there now.
So it is with gnashing of teeth that I see Ryan’s Dickie’s Lad (6.00) and Halford’s Tawariyka (6.30), both just now running into form, drawn 11 and 14.
Tawariyka is on the slide this morning in the face of confidence in Circumstances but Dickie’s Lad still fronts the market. Shall we lay him?
He certainly ran well in a fast time at Lingfield in November but is notably a front-runner so his draw is not at all helpful, and I prefer Gordon Lord Byron, back in handicaps and with Johnny Murtagh taking over.
Mick Halford’s big chance comes in the Dundalk Stadium Handicap (9.00) via my old friend Elizabeth Coffee.
As an improver, I think she can confirm recent placings with last year’s winner of this, Denny Crane, who seems badly in with Solo Performer. It’s close. It’s (likely to be) a photo.
SHAMROCK’S BETS
NAP: Gordon Lord Byron (6.00 Dundalk)
NEXT BEST: Circumstances (6.30 Dundalk)
DAQ TRIO: Gordon Lord Byron (6.00 Dundalk), Circumstances (6.30 Dundalk) and Elizabeth Coffee (9.00 Dundalk)
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