GOING TO ‘TOWN’ ON AN 18.0 OUTSIDER: Shamrock reckons there’s a dark horse ridden by a jumps jockey in a Flat race at Roscommon today. And it’s 18.0 on Betdaq this morning. Let the man explain.
All right, wait for it! Give me a chance to get on. For those who think Paul Townend would now be just as good on the Flat as he is over jumps, today’s the day to test their theory.
Paul’s ridden 46 Flat winners in the last five seasons but has risen to the top of the jumps tree with 176 in that time, though he can weigh out at only 9st 2lb.
Compare that with Paul Carberry, one of his rivals today in the Flat v National Hunt Riders Challenge (7.00 at Roscommon). Carberry is 9st 12lb minimum. Davy Russell is 10st 8lb. They’ve had only one Flat winner between them since 2005.
Townend’s mount, Looks All Right, is the dark horse of today’s race (no, of the day!), making her handicap debut – at a huge 18.0 on Betdaq this morning – after a quiet time in maidens.
Obviously, most of those Townend Flat winners in the last five seasons came in 2008 before he decided to turn to the jumps but he’s never missed a Flat season without a winner and is 50% (2-4) in 2011.
Worth three times the money is the EBF-supported filies’ handicap(6.30), which looks a cracker with seven of the 10 starters having won at least once in their last three starts.
Glamorous is consistent, if difficult to win with, and I prefer Galileo’s Daughter, whose breeding we’ve no need to guess at, and whose form (holds Magical Cat) looked good until trying a trip too far last time out.
That also applies to Lady Bennett, though her defeat of Dart Board at Down Royal was in slow time for the conditions.
The opener (5.25) is intriguing: David Wachman (Hot Bed) is the track’s top trainer and landed a double on this card last season but Dermot Weld (Dazzling Pearl) has a 36% strike rate with two-year-olds.
Ballydoyle’s contender, Wrote, is entered in the big juvenile races but, like Dazzling Pearl, is drawn wide. So I’m a Hot Bed man today.
SHAMROCK’S BETS
NAP: Hot Bed (5.25 Roscommon)
NEXT BEST: Devil’s Elbow (7.30 Roscommon)
OUTSIDERS: Galileo’s Daughter (6.30 Roscommon), Looks All Right (7.00 Roscommon)
DAQ TRIO: Hot Bed (5.25 Roscommon), Looks All Right (7.00 Roscommon) and Devil’s Elbow (7.30 Roscommon)
