TUESDAY’S WELSH NATIONAL GUIDE: Shamrock reveals the stats behind the Welsh National on Tuesday. He will be back on Monday with analysis of three Irish meetings: Leopardstown, Limerick and Down Royal.
I’m Master minded. Not the Paul Nicholls’ King George second string but Master Overseer, a tempting 33.0 offer on Betdaq for the Welsh National at time of writing.
Master Overseer would revive the domination of the race by the Pipe family – Martin won it five times out of six from 1988 to 1993 – and revisiting his father’s old winners’ enclosures has become a habit this year for son, David.
Master Overseer has already won over 29 furlongs, is a recent winner over hurdles at Chepstow and his defeat as favourite there over fences since was too bad to be true.
Whatever you back ante-post, you need a saver on the day on Giles Cross, whose credentials for the race are impeccable: a Chepstow winner in 2010, he was second in this National last season when it was delayed until January and his two runs since have been second in the Eider Chase and winner of the Southern National.
Incredibly, he’s rated only 2lb higher than he was before that super stamina sequence began. Here are the stats that might help you in your own search for the winner:
Age: 28 winners out of 30 since 1978 have been aged from six to nine so, unlike the Aintree Grand National, this is not for the seasoned old stayer, with the scores in that 30-year period: aged seven 12, aged eight 9; aged nine 5; aged six 2, aged ten 2.
Form: All 10 winners in the last decade had won at 3m or more; five had won from 27f to 36f. Five of the last six winners had a hurdles prep in one of their last two runs.
Four of the last eight winners had already scored in a chase at Chepstow and one other was runner-up in a hurdle there on his latest start.
Jockey: No rider in Tuesday’s race has won it more than once; the individual recent winners include Wayne Hutchinson, Andrew Lynch, Tony McCoy, Tom O’Brien, Andrew Thornton and Ruby Walsh.
Trainer: Three modern trainers have won it twice: Paul Nicholls, Jonjo O’Neill and Nigel Twiston-Davies. Ireland has only Jim Dreaper on the scoreboard in the last 35 years.
Weight: No horse has carried more than 11st 6lb to win this for 20 years; only two in 30 years. Between 1998 and 2005 inclusive, all eight winners were set between 10st and 10st 9lb.
SHAMROCK’S BETS
ANTE-POST: Master Overseer (Welsh National, Tuesday); saver on the day, Giles Cross.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
