4-1 WINNER GIVES SHAMROCK BACK-TO-BACK NAPS: Shamrock yesterday landed his nap, Lastkingofscotland (WON 4-1), following Hats And Heels (WON 5-6), on Sunday, and was probably unlucky to miss out on a 26-1 double when Grey Wulff (9-2) fell when clear three out.
Unless the handicapper’s got things wrong, the winner of the 7f handicap at Southwell today (2.55) should come from the top five at the weights.
Reason: all the rest are out of the handicap, only the odd pound but that’s often enough to make the difference in a race between 5f-7f.
And, again in theory, you can add a few pounds advantage to four of the top five, because they are drawn 5 (Jonnie Skull), one (Milton Of Campsie), three (Twennshortkid) and two (Kwik Time)
Kwik Tie goes out of the window, with Robin Bastiman so badly out of form: four of his last five runners have been beaten a total of 197 lengths. Lay.
I’m opting for Jonnie Skull, hoping it’s a strongly-run race. I should be ok with a 14-strong field.
You see, Jonnie Skull’s three Southwell wins have all been over 7f, in events where he could bring his stamina into play. He races from behind, more like a miler, but has never won beyond 7f.
What this means, apart from your needing a strong pace, is that you are likely to get a bigger price in running.
Don’t worry that Jonnie Skull ran only on Sunday. He’s won before just one day after a race, and he’s also scored two days after running.
It’s a rotten day’s racing but I’m hoping Hada Men (1.55) can preserve my naps record so that I am still 100% when Fairyhouse returns Irish racing to the scene tomorrow.
SHAMROCK’S BETS
NAP: Hada Men (1.55 Southwell)
NEXT BEST: Jonnie Skull (2.55 Southwell)
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