ONE WINNER FROM TWO TIPS: NEXT BEST on Monday WINS 7/2 and NAP unlucky second at 11/4 after fluffing the last. SIZING EUROPE NAPPED ON PUNCHESTOWN OPENING DAY: Five fabulous days of the Punchestown Festival start today with the Champion Chase card.
3.40 Punchestown (Ladies Cup) Enda Bolger’s form in this race in the last six seasons is 142411 and the rival (Ted Walsh) who robbed him of two of those has no runner today. The Bolger stable send out three of which Zest For Life looks the pick and Nina Carberry rides.
4.20 Punchestown (Champion Novice Hurdle) Brave Inca (2004) and Hurricane Fly (2009) both won this on the way to greater glory, with three stables dominating the outcome in the decade, including Willie Mullins with two winners and he saddles three of the five runners here but that isn’t likely to be enough as Trifolium who ran so well at Cheltenham is expected to get the better of Alderwood.
4.55 Punchestown (Grade C handicap hurdle) The stats are adamant (9 out of 10) that you must have a light weight of 10st 7lb or less to win this, preferably a potential improver of five, six or seven (7 out of 10).
There’s not been a winning favcourite in sight since the beginning of the decade, the last nine winners starting at 33-1, 20-1, 16-1 (twice), 14-1 (twice), 12-1 and 10-1 (twice).
Leah Claire fits the stats and is trading around 15 on BETDAQ at the time of writing.
5.30 Punchestown (Champion Chase) Big Zeb won this last year from Sizing Europe and was unbeaten in 2011 after that but he couldn’t do a Big Buck’s and has been beaten twice this year, including by the same rival in the Tied Cottage here. Also against him is that only one 11-year-old has ever won this championship (Eddie Wee 1987) in 32 years.
Sizing Europe is fully expected to gain his revenge this year. On this year’s evidence hi is simply a superior horse to Big Zeb.
6.40 Punchestown (Champion Novice Chase) Young horses by definition win this (9 out of 10 were aged six or seven) but there hasn’t been a winning favourite for seven years. Sir Des Champs should overcome that favourite stat and win this and justify his position in next season’s Gold Cup market.
SHAMROCK’S BETS:
NAP: Sizing Europe (Punchestown 5.30)
NEXT BEST: Sir Des Champs (Punchestown 6.40)
OUTSIDER: Leah Claire (Punchestown 4.55)
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