TESTING GROUND: Is forecast at Gowran Park and tomorrow’s evening meeting at Fairyhouse is subject to a 3.30pm inspection this afternoon due to the threat of further heavy rain. Will the rain ever stop ? SHAMROCK does find a horse at Gowran Park that despite being odds-on he considers good value.
Funny game at times this betting malarkey. I clicked on Circle in the 9.00 at Gowran Park expecting her to be around 1.30 and too short for the nap and I see she is trading at around 1.71.
That, in a nutshell, is what the great game of betting is about – estimating the price you think represents a realistic chance in the race and taking advantage of situations when you are getting inflated prices – in this case 28% better.
Of course your judgement has to be good too – that’s why horse racing is a game of skill and not chance like roulette. There ARE edges and they need exploiting.
When I back odds-on I need ticks in pretty much all the boxes:
GOING
TRAINER IN FORM
DISTANCE
OPPOSITION
And from just one start from Circle I am more than happy. She ran over a mile trip on debut at Leopardstown on soft ground and was just beaten a neck by Romantic Stroll who had the benefit of experience. She steps up slightly in distance which should suit.
Chief market rival Caliente did well on debut to finish fourth to Dane Street at Fairyhouse and should improve. She was unfancied that night at 33/1 but unlike the selection you are guessing at her ability to handle this much softer surface (it was good to yielding at Fairyhouse).
I might regret it later – but at this point I think 1.71 is a big price for Circle.
SHAMROCK’S BETS:
NAP: Circle (9.00 Gowran Park)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
