AIDAN’S DERBY – BUT WHICH ONE? Aidan O’Brien holds the key to this afternoon’s Derby but there’s an even bigger force at play – the weather gods.
Firstly a word on yesterday’s nap, Tarfasha. She ran a cracker but was no match for the hugely impressive home trained winner Taghrooda who looks exceptional.
On future plans, Dermot Weld’s son, Mark, said: “It’s up to the owner, I’d guess the Irish Oaks just across the road (at the Curragh) is the logical next step and maybe the two of them can do battle again. I think that was a very good Oaks, a vintage one.”
Australia hit 2/1 on BETDAQ on Saturday morning, that’s not a cricket score by the way but the current price on the Aidan O’Brien trained favourite who don’t forget has been matched at odds on in the BETDAQ ante-post market.
The reasons for the drift are likely to be weather related. There’s a been quite a downpour at Epsom already this morning and more rain has been forecast. Aidan O’Brien has always stated that Australia won’t enjoy softer conditions.
It would need a considerable amount of more rain to change it to that – but in a game of fine margins it could make a big difference.
I’ve always liked the chances of O’Brien’s other two runners Orchestra and Geoffrey Chaucer – not necessarily in preference to Australia – but it’s a price based thing. The fact that Australia is considered ‘numero uno’ automatically means that the other two are pushed out to (in my opinion) too bigger prices.
Both Orchestra and Geoffrey Chaucer won’t mind the rain – it was soft when Orchestra won the Chester Vase and Geoffrey Chaucer handled yielding to soft OK in a messy finish to the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown.
Both are more proven over a longer trip too. Don’t forget that Australia has yet to run beyond a mile and whilst his staying on third to Night Of Thunder in the 2000 Guineas gives every hope – he is still unproven.
If O’Brien can’t win it then hopefully John Gosden will with Western Hymn. That will trigger BETDAQ’s commission free offer on both races (details top right) after Taghrooda’s Oaks success yesterday.
SHAMROCK’S BETS:
NAP: Equal stakes on both GEOFFREY CHAUCER and ORCHESTRA (4.00 Epsom)
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