SHAMROCK MADE IT 7 WINNING BETS FROM LAST 11 WITH WINNING NAP: Friday’s winning NAP was Magnolia Beach at 2/5 but evens on BETDAQ at the time of selection.
The nap was landed last night with Magnolia Beach at an amazing 2/5. I say ‘amazing’ simply because he was evens at the time of selection on BETDAQ but the price tumbled right up to the off.
My colleague DAQMAN made some very pertinent points about prices and value this week in his article on Thursday (see archive).
As a punter for many years, I know how important the price of a horse is. Value is all. But sometimes, when one is too big, you can be put off it, just as easily as, when one is too short, you feel you have to leave it alone.
It was pretty much the same for me yesterday with Magnolia Beach. At around evens I was more than happy – but if I’d known he was going to be 2/5 he would have been a no play. Every horse (or bet) has a price and that is where the skill factor comes in. Value is subjective – what YOU are willing to pay for a meal in a restaurant might be different in what your friend does. The skill in betting is pitting YOUR judgement against the mass market.
We’re going well on the winners front at the moment with 7 winning bets from the last 11 and it’s the start of a great weekend of racing at Punchestown where the star bill Hurricane Fly will be long odds-on tomorrow in the five runner Morgiana Hurdle.
Willie Mullins trained runners also dominate today’s card and I would be hugely surprised if he doesn’t come away with a treble at the very minimum.
Champagne Fever who was especially impressive in bumpers makes his chasing debut in the 1.00 and in the opener Mullins runs two. Ruby Walsh is onboard the French winner Analifet and may have more class than stable companion Noble Inn who won at Ballinrobe.
SHAMROCK’S BETS:
NAP: Analifet (12.00 Punchestown)
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