When you look at the Philadelphia Eagles and the New Orleans Saints, who meet in the Louisiana Superdome on Monday night, you see two troubled franchises.
Philadelphia were supposed to challenge for the NFC East title but entering Week 9, the New York Giants had won three more games than the flailing birds. Head coach Andy Reid has been on the hot seat all season, not helped by the indifferent play of quarterback Michael Vick.
Reid has already axed defensive coordinator Juan Castillo which, as we said before last season, was a very strange appointment in the first place, given that he had spent the last 33 years on the offensive side of the ball.
Reid is already in self-preservation mode and with the recent tragic death of his son, it is hard not to feel for the big guy.
There also has to be a measure of sympathy, too, for New Orleans, who have been made an example of by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell over the ‘bounty’ scandal – which was nothing more than a storm in a teacup. ‘Bounties’, in whatever guise, have always been part of this violent sport.
Banning head coach Sean Payton for the season, and separate bans for linebacker Jonathan Vilma, GM Mickey Loomis, assistant head coach/linebackers coach Joe Vitt and defensive end Will Smith was nothing short of a disgrace. The witch hunt and ramifications didn’t stop there, with Goodell stripping their second round draft choice away from the Saints, meaning they did not have a first or second round pick for the first time in history (having traded their first-round pick in the 2011 draft to New England for Mark Ingram).
So is it angry birds or sinning Saints on Monday night?
The 2009 season, in which the Saints ranked among the league leaders in takeaways, looks an anomaly. Before and after, the Saints have ranked among the league’s worst in total yards allowed (24th last season, 31st this season) and takeaways (31st last season, tied for 15th with San Diego and Jacksonville so far this term).
The current lack of production is somewhat puzzling, given the talent they have on hand, and they currently have as many giveaways as takeaways. But this defence is truly dreadful. They are not getting much pressure on opposing quarterbacks – they have not given up fewer than 24 points in each of their seven games – and are giving up 8.26 yards per pass attempt, the worst in the league.
They don’t do much better against the run, either, allowing 5.03 yards per carry.
Philadelphia have similar issues. They have a league low nine sacks all season. And they have only failed to recover one fumble all season, but have lost nine fumbles and tossed eight interceptions, giving them a minus-nine differential between giveaways and takeaways – only Indianapolis (-10), Dallas (-11) and Kansas City (-20) are worse.
Give a little, take a little. Hmmm, that reminds us of an old classic from the Bay City Rollers, so it’s time for the Monday Musical Interlude…
The Eagles are conceding 22.1 points per game, while the Saints are shipping 30.9ppg (only the Bills, Redskins, Chiefs and Titans are allowing more).
Conversely, for such a talented group, Philadelphia have done a shocking job of putting up points, languishing 28th in the NFL, averaging just 17.1 points per game, while the Saints are again relying on another phenomenal season from quarterback Drew Brees, who is leading them to 27.1ppg and 388.6 yards per game (5th in the league) and is on pace for 46 touchdowns and 5,280 passing yards.
The Saints are asked to give up 3.5 points to the Eagles on the BETDAQ handicap and layers are expecting plenty of points, with the line set at 52.5.
If the Eagles and the richest quarterback in the league can’t put up some big numbers on Monday night, despite a battered offensive line which is bereft of Pro Bowl centre Jason Peters and centre Jason Kelce, they may as well pack up their tent for the year.
The Saints are not 2-5 for nothing – and you can put that squarely on Goodell.
For the Eagles, at the half-way point of the season, it is not a change in the game plan that is required, but a subtle adjustment in attitude. Reid needs them to start believing that they are the best and force them to make other teams respond.
Vick is short on confidence – that will happen when teams attack your primary weakness, as Vick has been blitzed 99 times on passing plays this season – but if he can’t get some against this sorry excuse of a defence, then it is time to bring in Nick Foles, the back-up passer, who looked very composed in pre-season.
It is always tough to go against the underdog on Monday night. Or rather it used to be. After going 110-56 against the point spread between 1970 and 2000, the Monday night home underdogs have been hovering in the 50-percent mark, and were just 7-9 against the spread between 2004 and 2006. The quality of the games on Monday nights has also declined since Thursday night and Sunday night games were introduced. In turn, this has caused the quality of the dogs, especially those with losing records, to not be the percentage call they once were.
Underdogs have, however, dominated the 2012 NFL standalone games on Monday and Thursday nights, posting a combined 13-5 against the handicap/spread (ATS) record – 6-3 ATS on Monday Night Football and 7-2 ATS on Thursday Night Football.
Dog backers have been in clover overall, as well this season. Before Sunday’s slew of games, teams getting the points are 71-44-3 ATS on the year.
Eagles/Saints is not a game to put the house on. In fact, it’s a watching brief, because it should be a hugely entertaining game, with two teams desperate for victory, as their season will be all but over with a loss. Philly have won three of their last four in New Orleans and the last three clashes between the pair in the Superdone have gone over the points total.
Philadelphia are too talented and too desperate to let this one slip. There is an air of defeatism mixed with the anger in New Orleans now. Take the birds – but given the situation of each club, they won’t want to make any mistakes and more conservative game plan might lead to the Unders prevailing.
Suggestions:
Back – Philadelphia +3.5
Back – Under 52.5 points in total
And don’t forget to check out John Arnette’s view on the game at betdaqnfl.com.
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 1: 7-5
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 3: 5-8
Week 4: 10-3
Week 5: 4-9
Week 6: 6-8
Week 7: 8-6
Week 8: 7-9
Twitter: @simonmilham
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