Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (Sky Sports, 5.30pm)
New Orleans would like nothing better than to play the role of spoiler and end Atlanta’s shot at a perfect season. The Falcons (8-0) are considered one-point favourites on the BETDAQ handicap as they travel to a Saints team who won their third game of the season, beating Philadelphia on Monday night.
The reaction to that 28-13 victory has been interesting. It was clear to many observers that the Eagles gave up when Michael Vick’s first-quarter interception, deep in Saints’ territory, was returned for a touchdown.
The Falcons have won just one of their last six trips to the Louisiana Superdome and two of their last 12 overall to their NFC South rival.
But this handicap line looks plain wrong. While Drew Brees and the Saints’ attack is rolling again, their defence will be lit up by Matt Ryan. The one-point line will put off many of those with a nervous disposition – especially since Vegas casinos said they lost a fortune on results last week and cynics like me expect them to claw the cash back quickly.
But Atlanta are a flat-out better team than their rivals who are going in a different direction. The Dirty Birds should make enough stops to control the game and make room behind your sofa, as the Saints’ secondary might want to cower behind it when they see the scary prospect of Ryan firing passes to Julio Jones and Roddy White. It could get ugly.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (Sky Sports, 9.25pm)
Dallas sit at 3-5, three games behind the New York Giants in the NFC East. Philadelphia are 3-6. Each week will be a playoff for the winner. The loser will go home. There is naturally no love lost between these bitter rivals and it will be a playoff atmosphere anyway.
Both clubs could well see head coaching changes at the end of the season and Philadelphia are almost certain to jettison quarterback Michael Vick for financial reasons.
Dallas are considered one-point favourites on the BETDAQ handicap to win in the City of Brotherly love for a fifth time in eight visits.
They are playing Philadelphia at the right time – November. For the Cowboys are 7-1 against the Eagles when playing in Philly in this month. This dates back to 1972. Their last November loss in Philly was on November 5, 2000.
The Cowboys’ defence is certain to be a lot better than it was when being blown out 34-7 in this fixture last season. With the Eagles’ offensive line really struggling, the visitors should be able to keep their season alive.
Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears (C4, Monday, 1.20am)
In a battle of two decent defences and two 7-1 teams – another game where one point splits them on the BETDAQ handicap – there is reason to think that favourites Chicago might fall.
There is no doubt the NFC appears to be the best of the two conferences but despite racking up 51 points against Tennessee last Sunday, Houston’s closer-than-the-score-reflected 21-9 defeat of Buffalo was probably the wake-up call the sloppy Texans needed.
The issue for the Texans is whether they can overcome the loss of nose tackle Shaun Cody, who suffered a punctured lung and broken ribs in victory over the Bills.
The Bears’ defence is perhaps playing as well as any Bears defence ever has, if you believe the hype. But look beyond the nodding heads and see whom they have played in their six-game winning streak: St Louis, Dallas, Jacksonville, Detroit, Carolina and Tennessee. Those teams are a combined 17-33, four of those clubs are in last place in their respective divisions and Tennessee are only third in theirs because Jacksonville sit below them. And third-placed Dallas have won as many games as last-placed Philadelphia in the NFC East.
Might we not be getting a little carried away over the merits of Chicago?
The Bears’ offensive line is still exactly that: offensive. The hoopla over the defence hides the fact that Jay Cutler leads a 29th-ranked passing attack (129.5 yards per game) and they rank 25th overall.
Houston can afford to take the week off, but they will still be the better team, whatever the outcome. Chicago, with homefield advantage, are still looking for a little respect and might be the right call on this occasion – but unless their attack improves markedly, any thoughts of a Super Bowl appearance might be misplaced.
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
The bye week might have done the New York Jets a power of good – it will need to have done, as they travel across country to face a team unbeaten at home.
The Jets, sitting at 3-5 after being battered at home by division rivals Miami, are still only two games behind the New England Patriots in a tight AFC East division race and their schedule down the stretch does not look too taxing, facing only one more team who currently boast a winning record: New England, who are eminently beatable. And that game is at home on November 22.
The Seahawks are a faux 5-4 team, having won just once on the road and they have yet to beat a division opponent in three attempts. The fact that they have won just one game fewer than the San Francisco 49ers (who have lost one game less) should fool no-one. Seattle are getting by with a solid defence, an average running game and a few big plays from rookie passer Russell Wilson. I’m not yet convinced they are for real.
In fact, despite the BETDAQ handicap making the hosts a 6.5-point favourite, it is tempting to take the Jets on the Moneyline at much better odds, because if there is going to be a shock in the late games, this looks a likely spot.
Someone had better tell inaccurate quarterback Mark Sanchez that it is his birthday today – or he might miss it. But as far as an underdog bet goes this week, this edition of the Musical Interlude from Linkin Park says plenty…
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers
Denver appear to be galloping towards the playoffs while Carolina are looking to next season. In fact, some observers think the Broncos might run the table, with the only team to boast a winning record on the home stretch being the Baltimore Ravens, whose defence is presently held together by a few scary glares, chewing gum and a pretty purple ribbon.
Coming off four surgical procedures in his neck, 36-year-old Payton Manning does not look to have the same zip on his passes, but the mind is as sharp as ever and he’s reading things far better than he did when rusty at the start of the season.
They are 2-2 on the road, and while the Panthers’ win over Washington last weekend had been coming, the fact remains that Denver’s Eric Decker has more receiving touchdowns than their entire team has managed all season. Manning has tossed 20 touchdowns, while counterpart Cam Newton has just six – in eight outings.
Yet this could be closer than expected. Newton is the key – he will be out to prove that he belongs in the same ‘elite’ bracket as Manning and the Panthers are a dangerous team, as they have nothing to lose.
When Manning retires, it won’t be the end of the world for Denver fans.
Smoking dope is apparently going to be legalised in Colorado – although Norv Turner could be forgiven for thinking this had been the case for many years, such has been the Broncos dominance over his San Diego Chargers. And only this week a Colorado man was prosecuted for feeding marijuana to captive seabirds. Apparently he left no Tern unstoned.
Take the 3.5-points on offer on the BETDAQ handicap, because Carolina won’t get smoked.
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins
At 4-4 and a game behind New England (whom they still have to play twice), Miami are still in the thick of the race for the AFC East title, despite their third loss of the season by a three-point margin at Indianapolis last week.
Tennessee are coming off a 51-20 pasting by Chicago, so the 6.5-point BETDAQ handicap accorded them seems fair. But Tennessee are in a 3-6 hole because of their tough schedule and they have played well for Mike Munchak in patches (notably in victory against Pittsburgh and at Buffalo, before giving Andrew Luck a torrid time two weeks ago in a 19-13 home loss).
This might not be as easy for Miami as many are predicting. Their running game appears to have gone south – one stunning Reggie Bush touchdown in Indianapolis aside – and the loss of Richard Marshall for the season is a blow to an already thin secondary.
San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It is November, which means the small woodland creatures that chisel out a lair in Norv Turner’s head have gone into hibernation. Time, therefore, for the San Diego Chargers to wake up and make their usual late charge to the playoffs.
Tampa’s attack has been prolific in recent weeks – as highlighted in Thursday’s column – but despite the Chargers’ ground attack having a firm grasp of the one-yard gain and little else, San Diego’s passing attack will exploit the Tampa secondary. As Philip Rivers goes, so do the Chargers, who have only ever lost once to the Bucs in nine games. They may well be good enough to overcome a three-point BETDAQ handicap on the road.
New York Giants @ Cincinnati Bengals
This looks a trap game for the New York Giants. They should be more than four-point favourites but they have never won in the Queen City (funny, what made me think that was San Francisco?) and only three times in eight all-time meetings between the two has there been a bigger winning margin that four points.
It doesn’t hurt to play the percentages once in a while. So take Giants’ birthday boy Victor Cruz to score the winning touchdown in a come-from-behind, low-scoring contest, one where the points are worth keeping on your side.
Join us again on Monday as we run the rule over the Kansas City Chiefs at the Pittsburgh Steelers and, in the meantime, take a look at what John Arnette thinks of this weekend’s slew of games at betdaqnfl.com
Suggestions:
Atlanta -1
Dallas -1
Chicago -1
New York Jets +6.5
Carolina +3.5
Tennessee +6.5
San Diego -3.5
Cincinnati +4
NY Giants/Cincinnati Under 48.5 total points
San Diego/Tampa Over 48 total points
Tennessee/Miami Under 44 total points
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 1: 7-5
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 3: 5-8
Week 4: 10-3
Week 5: 4-9
Week 6: 6-8
Week 7: 8-6
Week 8: 7-9
Week 9: 9-4
Twitter: @simonmilham
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