Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (BBC Red Button, Tuesday, 1.30am)
There are two words you probably need to know about what should be a one-sided all-AFC Monday Night Football clash: Todd Haley.
Haley was sacked after a tumultuous three-year stint as head coach of the Chiefs and is now trying to restore a tarnished reputation as Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator.
He had the reputation of being a hot-headed coach, which is a little wide of the mark. It is a stigma that is unwarranted, the basis of which isn’t hard to find. Those close to the Chiefs’ organisation say Scott Pioli, the GM, is known for being an insecure micro-manager. That’s marketing speak for bullying.
From experience, it isn’t a pleasant environment when certain egotistical editors are angered by an allegory or ranting over a revision. People work better with sugar, rather than vinegar – a lesson many in my profession would be wise to learn.
Likewise, those who work for such humourless and petty people can be forgiven if they blow up once in a while and would like nothing better than to stick it to these tyrants. It’s human nature.
NFL coaches may claim they are wired differently. ‘Getting fired is just part of the business’ is a phrase that is often used. But head coaches are hyper-competitive people – so don’t be fooled by what is said. Read between the lines.
Haley would like nothing better than to exact revenge on Pioli, who is under intense pressure anyway after several failed drafts. The 1-7 Chiefs are going nowhere and the Steelers are starting to roll, following their win on the road over the New York Giants.
The Steelers need a win to keep pace in the AFC North with the Baltimore Ravens, who went into the weekend with a 6-2 record, and they are 11.5-point BETDAQ favourites to dispatch the Chiefs. The Overs/Unders points total sits at 42.
So with vengeance in the air, this edition of the Musical Interlude is dedicated to Haley…
There are two issues to worry about if backing the Steelers, however. Firstly, their receiving corps is wafer thin at present. Antonio Brown is likely to miss the game after spraining his right ankle last week. And secondly, they tend to play up or down to their opposition, which is a coaching issue.
They have the tendency to play badly against sad sack sides – losing at Oakland and Tennessee, for example (they have covered the handicap just twice in their last seven games against teams with a losing record) – but raising their game to see of the Giants.
The Chiefs have not managed to get their noses in front at any time in regulation this season and while their run defence isn’t the worst, their 21st-ranked unit will be severely tested by the Steelers’ ground game, which has picked up markedly of late. The Steelers were 31st in rushing (74.8 yards per game) through the first six weeks of the season, but they have more than doubled that average (155.0) during their winning streak.
Rashard Mendenhall is likely to return at the No.1 running back despite missing the last three weeks and will share time with Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer, who have done a great job in relief.
The Steelers have won their last 14 Monday Night dates at home, by an average of two touchdowns and have beaten the Chiefs in eight of their last 11 meetings in Pittsburgh, the last coming in 2006.
Those who believe the Chiefs have a shot at causing a major upset will look to this trend: the Chiefs and Steelers have alternated wins and losses in their last 11 meetings – the Steelers won 13-9 in Missouri last November – so it should be the Chiefs’ turn to win.
Chiefs head coach Romeo Crennel fired himself as the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator last week and promoted linebackers coach Gary Gibbs to the position.
It appears as though he did this as a prelude to making some big changes on the offensive side of the ball. Whether that is correct, whether he does manage to find creative ways to the get the ball into the hands of playmakers like Dwayne Bowe, Dexter McCluster, Jon Baldwin and Jamaal Charles remains to be seen. But it looks like he’s sprinkling perfume on a corpse and is only making this move to save his own job.
The Steelers have let us down plenty this season – they are 3-9 against the handicap spread (ATS) in their last 12 games after covering a handicap – but are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games.
The Steelers are very unlikely to lose, but Moneyline (outright) players will still be wary of Pittsburgh’s propensity to let down against weaker opponents. Handicap backers will be equally wary.
But the Chiefs do not score too many points, averaging just over 16 on the road (that figure buoyed by the 27 points they scored against the dreadful New Orleans Saints defence) and Pittsburgh’s rearguard, despite a few injuries, ranks 1st against the pass and 7th (88.6 yards per game) against the run.
Given that Haley will want to turn the screw, and head coach Mike Tomlin is a players’ coach, the Steelers should cover the handicap with ease.
Suggestions:
Pittsburgh -11.5
Over 42 points
And don’t forget to check out John Arnette’s view on the game at betdaqnfl.com.
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 1: 7-5
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 3: 5-8
Week 4: 10-3
Week 5: 4-9
Week 6: 6-8
Week 7: 8-6
Week 8: 7-9
Week 9: 9-4
Twitter: @simonmilham
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